New American tariffs do not need to be imposed on Ukraine; instead, they can benefit from the ability of European partners to support us
Donald Trump is beginning the active phase of what is apparently the largest “trade war” in history. The global recession and financial crisis, which we have been shouting since the end of the 2010s – the beginning of the 2020s, now seem inevitable. By most pessimistic assessments, the world economy is facing little risk of a repeat of the Great Depression, which was kindly interrupted in the 30s of the last century. In this case, the new chalep is not less noticeable than the strusone of the newly acquired States and the lands of Western Europe, as it was then. And, due to the increasing globalization of capital and labor resources, the impact on other national economies will be even more intense.
We analyze the first estimates of the current influx of tariff innovations into the world, the USA, Europe and Ukraine, which is also experiencing the worst military aggression in modern history.
“DAY OF ELIGIBILITY” USA: TRUMP VIEWS THE PANDORI TARIFF SCREEN
Previously, the head of the White House announced his decisions, dictated by national interests, and voted to introduce a basic tariff of 10% on all imports to his country. Navigation (as analysts lost their respect) from uninhabited island territories. The American President called the vote of such measures “the day of liberation of the United States of America.”
There were a lot of ironic comments in social networks from 10% of the world on two islands, which are populated only by penguins. Although, as explained later, the islands were demarcated by Australian companies. Under this tariff formula and regulations, which, as it turns out, gave rise to the world's largest trade war and will soon lead to a recession and world financial crisis, they also became more Zdivuvannya. “…America's Redemption Day has arrived. The Day of Redemption has arrived in a healthy way,” ironizes investment banker Sergey Fursa . economist
In addition to this, the White House is proposing increased individual turnaround tariffs against dozens of countries, where the United States faces the largest trade deficit. Products from China, for example, are subject to an additional tax of 34%, from the EU – 20%, from Vietnam – 46%, Japan – 24%, India – 26%, Taiwan – 32%, South Korea – 25%. A major sectoral blow – on automobile imports with a 25-hundred-hundred-hundred-hundred thousand-dollar tariff “for everyone and everything.”
At this point, analysts are extremely respectful: there is no mention in Trump’s decree of additional additional sanctions (under the illegal tariff norm) against the “Kremlin friend”. White House spokeswoman Carolyn Levitt told Axios that Russia was not added to the additional lists, arguing that the sanctions previously imposed by the United States are already going to be any significant. trade with this country. In this case, the fenced-in military campaign was carried out against the rich powers and island territories, the trade obligations of the United States were much smaller, and the trade turnover with Russia was lower (the aggressor power exported up to US goods worth $3 billion). For this reason, sanctions have not been imposed on additional measures against Cuba, Belarus and Southern Korea. Sixty other US trading partners have received individual awards. New tariffs start from the 9th quarter, and the minimum basic tariff starts from the 5th quarter. Tariffs on the import of foreign cars will increase as soon as next night.
It’s clear, now let’s “spin.” Even the trading partners of the United States are obligated to strike a blow at the source, thereby blocking American products. At the same time, at the advanced stages of Donald Trump’s statements and threats, Europe, Canada, China, and other tides were ahead of them. And then, astonishingly, we will come to the number of mutual mitigations between other countries and interstate unions…
“Decades of global trade based on COT rules have sunk into oblivion. In the face of the risks of a massive trade war – the major majority of the world's leading economies definitely cannot sit with folded hands and deprive them of unilateral tariff increases from the side of the United States (as if they were not tarring anything) without “videovidy”, – the head of the Verkhovna Rada Committee for the supply of finance, taxation and mitigation policy Danilo Getmantsev asked.
Danilo Getmancev
I already have a reaction to the announced approaches. For example, the head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, spoke about the preparation of such projects. Vaughn knew that Trump’s actions would be a painful blow to the global economy and would cause “dire consequences for millions of people around the world.” And ahead is a slight inflationary surge, an increase in the availability of products, supplies, transport and other services.
Ursula von der Leyen. Photo: PAP/EPA
The EC student agreed with Donald Trump that other countries were unfairly complaining about the rules of global trade between the US and the United States, and spoke about their readiness to support efforts to reform these rules. Unless raising tariffs for this food supply will not help in any way, it will only aggravate problems with interstate trade.
China was one of the first to react to the US move. In Beijing they called for the White House to “put it back”, urgently cutting off tariff cuts. Otherwise, don’t bother with pain for obtaining counter-entries. There is talk in the PRC that by acting in this way, Washington can create great opportunities for new international trade relations that the rich negotiations have already achieved. According to Bloomberg, China has already blocked the ability of its companies to invest in the United States, preparing for negotiations on tariff revisions.
By acting proactively, the United States is trying to minimize mutual tariff blows in the face of a trade war. The Minister of Finance of the Territory Scott Bessent detained the partners as a result of the meeting at the new meeting. In conclusion: if there is no such thing, the White House will no longer be foreseeable, otherwise tariffs may rise again.
The government also reported that the country's leaders have already returned to the United States in order to issue trade changes and obtain preferences for themselves and guilt from illegal rules.
Scott Bessent. Photo: Tom Williams/CQ Roll Call
REACTION OF GLOBAL MARKETS: GOLD – UP, NAFTA AND DOLLAR – DOWN
One of the first new tariff barriers to be introduced by the United States was in response to the once sensitive naphtha market.
World prices for “black gold” have decreased significantly. According to Reuters, investors are afraid that Washington's decision will provoke an increase in economic growth around the world, and will then fall into decline.
Already in the first few years after Trump’s intervention, futures for Brent naphtha fell by $1.6 (2.13%) to $73.35 per barrel. Futures for American naphtha WTI fell $1.62 (2.26%), falling to $70.09. This is the greatest one-day fall since 5 bereznia.
And this despite the fact that the import of oil, gas and petroleum products to the United States was not subject to new restrictions. The recent upheaval in the United States has turned out to be as strong as predicted earlier. Previously, the negative mood intensified after the US Energy Information Administration reported that, due to increased imports from Canada, oil reserves in the United States increased by 6.2 million barrels with a forecast of a shortening of 2.1 million. Water consumption for gasoline has decreased and oil refineries have reduced production before the start of the summer season.
Stock markets have begun to fall. The first to enter the zone of turbulence, with the adjustment of time zones, were the Asian exchanges. For example, the Japanese Nikkei index (an indicator of the share price of the 225 largest companies in the first section of the Tokyo Stock Exchange) fell to an eight-month low. Having spent the Chinese yuan at the price, dropping to its lowest level in the remaining two months.
The American dollar is suffering. Its exchange rate to the main world currencies is falling by four. The ICE Index DXY, which demonstrates the dynamics of the dollar in six currencies (euro, Swiss franc, yen, Canadian dollar, pound sterling and Swedish krona), lost 0.99%, the broader WSJ Dollar Index – 0.62%.
The euro is increasing in value. The trades were booked at $1.095 per 1 euro against $1.0855 in advance. The pound sterling rose to $1.3095 from $1.3008 the day before. The price is also strengthening (147.1 versus 149.28 yen per $1). And according to analysts’ forecasts, the relationship with the Japanese currency is expected to increase even more, and even the dollar will fall to the world’s main assets.
But obviously the key role will be played by such a stale asset as gold. We are waiting in the near future, behind all the forecasts, and we are no longer growing. It is worth noting that this year gold has already reached a historical high and is approaching a record quarterly increase in the last 38 years. US gold futures rose in price to $3,148 per troy ounce (approximately 34 grams). Worldwide investors rushed to buy up metal en masse even after Trump’s early statements about the issue. Now her activity is no longer possible.
IS SVITOVO ECONOMICAL COOLING AROUND THE WAY?
According to the estimates of Danil Getmantsev , the direct and obvious consequence of the introduction of new tariffs (without inevitable deadlines) will be an increase in prices and increased inflation, in line with the increase in the world economy. trade, destruction of the global lantsyugas created by the given vartosti. As a result, the pace of growth of the global economy is gradually increasing.
“All these changes are fair both for the world economy and for the surrounding countries, which will deal with increased inflation, a decline in economic growth and a slower pace of growth. economic development,” the head of the Verkhovna Rada financial committee said.
According to the forecasts of financial analyst Oleksiy Kushcha , rich countries will now begin to close businesses, change jobs, and reduce wages. Only a few countries will lose stability. The world is leading up to an unsafe recession.
“It is entirely possible that Trump, intending to blatantly break through the “global bulb” at his first river in the planting, will catalyze an unsafe process. Otherwise, he could end the recession in two years, before the end of his next term, repeating the epic failure during the pandemic, if he lost his victory in the final elections. If the bulb is about to burst, let it burst spontaneously, and not spontaneously, at the most inopportune hour,” comments the economist.
He predicts that turbulence in global stock markets will cease to exist. It is necessary that key US trading partners do not heed the warning from Washington and implement foreign tariffs.
“Imports to the United States from other countries will change sharply. This means two shocks: the first is inflation, an increase in prices to replace cheap imports with our own production. This can also be achieved through industrialization, investment and the creation of new jobs. The other is a reduction in the light price by a dollar,” predicts Kushch .
In addition to the loss of the dollar's position as a key reserve currency, the United States is threatened with other pressures provoked by the tariff initiative.
“Due to the wealth of American imports, replacement is impossible or will be further extended in the next few hours. For example, half of the spare parts for American auto manufacturers are imported. Based on estimates that the transfer of production to 10% of these spare parts from the United States will borrow 3 years and require investment of over $100 billion and only a small part of warehouses,” a senior economist at the Center for Economic Strategy points out. Yuri Gaidai .
Since a lot of goods for the US market are rising sharply in price, they are becoming increasingly scarce. However, it is important that American exported goods may lose competitiveness in global markets.
“It is difficult to clearly predict all the effects. Just like that – the efficiency of the global economy will decrease. The hidden goodness of humanity is gone,” – Perekonanian economist.
And Vitaly Kuzmin, a member of the Aspen Institute in Kiev, apart from the main risks of the trade policy introduced in the United States, calls the incredible decline in international trade transactions, What can lead to trade wars is the increase in prices for consumer goods.
“In addition, for companies that rely on the import of raw materials and components for production, the shift may create additional costs that negatively impact on underlying profitability,” the economist notes.
There is currently a change in US military policy – which, in his words, is partly more of a broad strategy. They can become a tool for influencing global economic processes, as well as an indicator of how countries react to changes in the global environment. If the new tariffs are successful in the context of achieving economic goals, the United States may rebate the benefit. However, other countries, which have lost time under new restrictions, will have to report to adapt their strategies in order to maintain competitiveness.
“In summary, the introduction of new projects is an important part of the global economic strategy of the United States, which aims to not only seize the power plant, but also improve the country’s economic position on light arena. These can have serious benefits for international trade and economical supplies, and will certainly be ready for rapid adaptation in the minds of the new reality,” Kuzmin summed up.
Donald Trump. Photo: PAP/EPA
INFLECTION OF TARIFFS ON UKRAINE FOR RUSSIAN AGGRESSION
Ukraine is in the midst of a flux of powers against which the United States is promoting an individual return tariff. Ale base mit at 10%, as in most parts of the world, we will not survive. For a peaceful time, it would seem that there would not be such a blow – with the assurance that our exports to the United States will not exceed $1 billion ($874 million for the pouches of the past). This is less than 2% of the foreign Ukrainian exports. The pro-war may add negatives, such as the obvious loss of access to the industry (which, however, is not to be said in Ukraine), which could speed up the supply of rich imported goods inflation. Even the United States imports goods to Ukraine in an amount that is four times greater than the amount of imports from Ukraine (based on 2024 data, about $3.4 billion).
“For us, the value is 10%. There is no significant tariff, such as Moldova’s 31% and the EU’s 20%, compared to Ukraine’s. Our rates on American goods are low – on cars the rate is 10%, on coal and naphtha – 0%. Therefore, we now have a chance to speak about other (even Trump voted, – ed .) minds – the American declaration to speak clearly about this possibility,” comments First Deputy Prime Minister – Minister of Economy of Ukraine Yulia Sviridenko.
If everything is lost, then the American universal, according to the rules, will hit mainly small producers. Vlad, in the hour of relocation from the United States, is trying to protect their interests.
“We export to the United States over 600 different categories of goods (even different ones – like nut wrenches), of which 65 types of products are worth more than $1 million. ally and partner. In fair battles, offended countries win,” Sviridenko recontextualized.
Yulia Sviridenko
Nowadays, analysts show that the US interchanges with the EU, China, India and other great markets may become a chance for some Ukrainian exporters – most importantly, post-leaders of the agricultural sector. and metallurgical products, which deny the chance to occupy a new niche.
Ale tse – because the authorities (especially from the side of the European Union) do not transfer the distribution of foreign goods not only to American products, but also to goods from third countries. In addition, a global trade war could seriously impact the economies of key partners, which could potentially add to the current support for Ukraine.
“I would, despite the different super-ambitious forecasts, not be positive. Of course, 10% do not have a significant negative effect for Ukraine, considering a small part of merchandise exports to the United States. Otherwise, the orders of the Ukrainian partners will be affected by protectionism and not only American goods. These protectionist approaches are already hitting us harder,” said Danilo Getmantsev .
It is also very likely that through the exchange of supplies of agricultural and metallurgical products from the EU to the USA, internal European markets will be restocked with such goods. And then, the price of milk will decrease for European manufacturing enterprises, which are obliged to import from Ukraine.
There are also changes in access to finished Ukrainian products. And you can still push for changes in import quotas to the EU from Ukraine. It is likely that the pressure on the obstruction decision to continue autonomous trade transactions after the 5th round and the free trade regime for Ukraine in Europe is already high. Technical changes with the European Commission will prevent the upcoming trade regime. At the same time, a few European countries, besides our neighbors, are applying for trade preferences for Ukraine. So, in the near future, difficult times await us again.
Vladislav Obukh, Kiev
First photo: White House