The Ministry of Economic Policy and Trade forecasts Ukraine's GDP growth in 2024 to 4.6% with an increase in investment by 29.6% compared to 2023, which will form the largest positive contribution to GDP growth. This was announced by the First Deputy Prime Minister of Ukraine – Minister of Economy Yulia Sviridenko.
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An increase in the value of exports of goods and services in 2024 is expected to be 9%, imports of goods and services – by 5.9%.
According to Sviridenko, the ministry estimates Ukraine's GDP growth at the end of 2023 at 5% .
Compared to pre-war 2021, the role of the state has increased: today the leading role is played by the sector of general government – our defense and security, social protection, and business assistance. According to the Ministry of Economy, for 9 months of 2023, the share of added value of public administration in GDP increased by 15 percentage points. and amounted to 21.2% versus 6.2% in 2021. Essentially, this sector provides security and helps the economy adapt to new conditions,” Sviridenko noted.
In addition, the priority of the wartime economy is to finance investments in the defense-industrial complex in the restoration of destroyed infrastructure. Thus, compared to 2021, the share of gross fixed capital formation in GDP increased by almost 4 percentage points. up to 17.1% mainly from budget financing.
At the same time, the Ministry of Economy records a change in consumption priorities, in particular, a drop in household consumption, which is typical for a wartime economy. During the reporting period, the share of final consumer expenditures of households in GDP decreased by almost 2 percentage points. up to 66.3%.
This is also a consequence of Ukrainians leaving abroad, which, among other things, affected a shift in the distribution of imports of goods and services towards an increase in the latter in the total volume of imports.
Also, Russia's armed anger caused huge losses in sectors that occupied favored positions in the pre-war period. Thus, the metallurgical industry, due to significant destruction of enterprises, their temporary occupation, and blocked logistics, is an outsider.
For 9 months of 2023, the share of metallurgical production in the structure of sales of industrial products decreased by 7.9 percentage points. compared to 2021 and is 9.9%.
