The economy resumed throughout last year thanks to the high adaptability of business and the population to war conditions and a soft fiscal policy supported by large-scale international financing. This was stated by the head of the NBU Andriy Pyshny during a briefing on monetary policy.
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According to Pyshny, in the fourth quarter, real GDP growth exceeded expectations primarily due to higher yields of late crops and the development of alternative export routes. This became the basis for improving the estimate of real GDP growth in general for 2023 – to 5.7%.
Despite the war, economic growth will continue. In 2024, real GDP will grow by 3.6%, primarily due to continued high budget expenditures against the backdrop of expected volumes of international assistance at a sufficient level.
However, economic growth rates will be lower than last year , due to the expected decrease in harvests and increased imbalances in the labor market in war conditions.
“In 2025-2026, economic growth will accelerate to 4-6% per year due to reduced security risks, which is The main assumption of the NBU forecast is the improvement of consumer and investment sentiment, the introduction of European integration reforms,” said the head of the National Bank.
It is expected that in the post-war period, soft fiscal policy will continue to support the economy, while at the same time the budget deficit is significant will decrease due to the strengthening of the internal resource base.
Recall
The “Ministry of Finance” wrote that the Ministry of Economic Policy and Trade forecasts Ukraine’s GDP growth in 2024 to 4.6%, provided an increase in investment by 29.6% compared to 2023, which will form the largest positive contribution to GDP growth.
