The International Monetary Fund raised its forecast for global economic growth in 2024 by 0.2 percentage points to 3.1%. In 2025, growth is expected to be 3.2%. This is stated in the January review of the World Economic Outlook.
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The outlook is improved compared to October last year due to better-than-expected resilience in the US and some market economies, as well as financial support in China.
However, the forecast for 2024-2025 is below the historical average (2000-2019) of 3.8% due to increased rates by central banks to combat inflation, the end of fiscal support amid high debt.
< h3>Inflation
Global headline inflation is expected to fall to 5.8% in 2024 and 4.4% in 2025. At the same time, the forecast for 2025 will be revised downward.
Oil prices
The IMF expects average oil prices to fall by 2.3% in 2024 compared to the forecast in October by a fall of 0.7% and said that prices would fall by 4.8% in 2025.
The IMF also added that new jumps in the cost of commodities due to geopolitical turmoil, in particular attacks on shipping in the Red Sea, may prolong tight monetary conditions.
