Commodities in 2024 could bring a return of 15%, according to the investment bank Goldman Sachs Group. Bloomberg writes about this with a link to bank analysts, including Samantha Dart and Daan Struven.
► Subscribe to the telegram channel “Ministry of Finance”: main financial news
Bank forecast
Experts explain the forecast by saying that the central banks of the United States and Europe will lower interest rates, which will help support industrial and consumer demand.
The investment bank notes that the US Federal Reserve and the ECB have already announced plans to lower rates amid lower inflation . In addition, China said it would strengthen measures to support economic growth.
As rates fall, borrowing costs will fall and production will recover. In combination with ongoing geopolitical risks, this will lead to an increase in prices for copper, aluminum, gold and petroleum products, Goldman Sachs believes.
How prices for copper, gold, aluminum will change
Goldman Sachs predicts that by the end of the year the cost of copper will increase to $10 thousand per ton, aluminum – to $2600 per ton, gold – to $2300 per ounce.< /p>
According to the London Stock Exchange, on March 25 at 16:37, the price of copper futures is $8874.5 per ton, the price of aluminum futures is $2321.5 per ton. Gold futures for April delivery are trading at $2,178.95 per ounce.
“We believe that rate cuts in the US, absent a recession, will lead to higher commodity prices, with the largest price increases occurring in metals (in particular, copper and gold) and further in oil,” said Goldman Sachs. They added that the rise in commodity prices will intensify over time, driven by softer financial conditions.
At the same time, the investment bank is pessimistic about the prospects for metals such as nickel, cobalt and lithium. Analysts believe that it is too early to talk about the end of the bearish trends for these assets.
