Despite the economic decline at the beginning of a full-scale war, in 2023 the Ukrainian economy showed positive signals and high adaptability.
This information is stated in the April “Inflation Report” of the NBU, reports URA-Inform.
However, recently the growth rate of this industry has slowed down somewhat, the NBU noted. It is noted that in the first quarter of 2024, the recovery in economic activity continued, but real GDP growth was only 3.1%. This was influenced by restrained budget expenditures in conditions of uncertainty regarding the receipt of external funding, as well as the consequences of the border blockade by Poland.
The NBU explained that, despite this, fiscal policy remained soft and, together with the effect of a significant increase in budget expenditures, significantly fuels aggregate demand.
“Moderate GDP growth rates will continue until the end of 2024. The pace of economic growth will slow, given the impact of the war and the exhaustion of growth momentum from the low base of 2022. The recovery will also be held back by the consequences of the destruction of the energy infrastructure. Mainly because of them, the forecast for real GDP growth in 2024 has been worsened to 3.0% (compared to 3.6% in the January 2024 Inflation Report)», — the report says.
It is worth noting that, according to the updated macroeconomic forecast, inflation in Ukraine will rise during 2024. However, in the future, in 2025-2026, it is expected to reverse. This will be facilitated by the gradual normalization of the operating conditions of the economy.
We recall that it was previously reported that Putin did not expect such an act from Scholz: the German Chancellor announced what would happen to the assets of the Russian Federation.
