European countries are discussing the possibility of introducing peacekeeping troops into Ukraine to deploy them on the demarcation line.
This was reported by URA-Inform with reference to Glavred.
However, according to Vladimir Gorbach, executive director of the Institute for Transformation of Northern Eurasia, such a scenario seems unlikely. According to him, the current war is not only a conflict of attrition, but also a war of extermination.
Such conflicts are not resolved by political or legal means, the expert noted.
“There are five regions of Ukraine – four oblasts and Crimea, which de jure, according to the Constitution of Ukraine, are part of our state. At the same time, these same territories are included in the Constitution of the Russian Federation as its constituent entities. It is impossible to resolve this conflict politically due to domestic political and legal circumstances,” he explained.
Gorbach believes that the war will last until the internal destruction of one of the parties – Ukraine or Russia. Among the possible scenarios, he highlights a ceasefire without signing a peace agreement or reaching a political settlement.
«This may happen due to exhaustion of both sides and their inability to continue active hostilities. There have already been precedents. Typologically, our war may resemble the Iran-Iraq War, which lasted about eight years. It also began with Saddam Hussein's attack on Iran with the hope of capturing territories in southwestern Iran populated by Arabs in three days. But the war lasted eight years and ended without signing a peace treaty — simply because both sides realized the futility of continuing hostilities», — he added.
Gorbach compared the situation with the Iran-Iraq war, when after the cessation of hostilities the parties returned to the state border line, but did not conclude a full-fledged peace treaty.
At the same time, the NYT believes that the war is approaching its final phase: real scenarios for its end have been named.
