After almost three years full-scale Russian invasion of Ukraine, the war, according to experts, is approaching its final phase, and the prospects for a peaceful settlement are becoming more realistic.
This was reported by URA-Inform with reference to the NYT.
Rajan Menon, Professor Emeritus of International Relations at Columbia University, outlined possible scenarios for ending the war.
He believes that Donald Trump's return to the US presidency could radically change the dynamics of the conflict. Trump claims that he can quickly end the war by using the threat of cutting off military aid to Ukraine and increasing pressure on Russia to reach an agreement. However, he has not yet presented a clear plan for implementing his intentions.
The US shift in priorities to the Asia-Pacific region to contain China is pushing Europe to become more involved in Ukraine's security.
Here are possible options for ensuring the country's post-war security:
- NATO membership
This remains a key goal for Ukraine, but achieving unanimous agreement from all members of the Alliance will be difficult. Currently, several countries, including the United States, are opposed or propose postponing accession. - Coalition of Security Guarantors
An alternative is the creation of a coalition of states that would provide Ukraine with security guarantees. However, US participation in such an agreement looks doubtful, especially in the context of Trump's possible policies. - Armed Neutrality
This option involves mutual commitments: Russia does not attack Ukraine, and Ukraine refuses to join NATO and station foreign troops. Although this is a compromise scenario, it carries the risk of vulnerability for Ukraine. In this case, Kyiv must insist on maintaining a strong army and the ability to buy weapons. - European Leadership
Some European countries, including France and Poland, are discussing the possibility of stationing their troops in Ukraine after the war. For now, these ideas are at the discussion stage, with no concrete decisions.
«After more than 1,000 days of war that has claimed thousands of lives and destroyed large parts of Ukraine, the end may be near. But for a lasting peace, and not a freeze that would only last long enough for Russia to regroup and re-attack, what matters is what happens after the war is over, the professor concluded.
Trump also made a number of statements about Ukraine: what Zelensky should prepare for.
