Now before We have three possible scenarios for the development of events: optimistic, pessimistic and realistic.
This was reported by URA-Inform with reference to Charter97.
The implementation of each of them depends on the level of support for Ukraine from international partners, oil prices and the stability of the Russian economy.
Optimistic scenario
After the Kremlin's refusal to negotiate on US terms (for example, Trump's publicly rejected plan), the White House changes strategy. For a successful dialogue, Ukraine must be armed to the maximum, and Russia is in a critical situation. Ukraine receives significant supplies of modern weapons without delay, and Russia is faced with increased sanctions and falling oil revenues due to increased production in the United States.
By summer, Ukraine begins to win on the front: the Ukrainian Armed Forces carry out successful counterattacks, and Russia's economic crisis intensifies, weapons stockpiles fall, and Ukrainian missile strikes cause serious damage. In such circumstances, Moscow asks for peace, accepting the conditions of Kyiv and the West.
Pessimistic scenario
This scenario is similar to the optimistic one, but its implementation is stretched out over time. Weapons deliveries are slow and in insufficient quantities. China and North Korea continue to support Russia economically and militarily. Despite its problems, Beijing is strengthening its position in negotiations with the United States.
As a result, Washington and Beijing reach an agreement, and Russia turns out to be unnecessary. Its interests are ignored, and it becomes a victim of this deal. By this time, Ukraine has become a key regional player and a stronghold for the United States. The end of the conflict is predicted for late 2025 or early 2026.
Realistic Scenario
This is a mixture of the first two scenarios. Moscow becomes a bargaining chip in the negotiations between the United States and China. In this game, Russia has no other scenario but to accept its role as a secondary participant. The end of the conflict is seen closer to the end of 2025.
It is worth noting that all three scenarios emphasize the need to strengthen Ukraine and weaken Russia in order to achieve peace.
Recall that earlier it was reported that the Bundestag announced important negotiations on the war in Ukraine: the date has been named.
