Nine months before the US elections, the main favorite of the Republican Party is Donald Trump is moving forward rates. How much pressure has been placed on NATO and the statement about the possible desire of aggression of the Russian Federation in Europe.
For more details about Trump’s threats, the reaction of allies, the reasons for such rhetoric and about the risks for our country, see the material from the Republic of Belarus K-Ukraine.
During the preparation of the material, the following were used: publications of The New York Times, CNN, Handelsblatt, statements of Donald Trump, recent leaders, comments of political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko.
- Trump’s provocation and what it means
- How to react to Trump’s words and what Europe is afraid of
- Possible risks for NATO and Ukraine
- Help to Ukraine. Why is NATO preparing a backup scenario and what does it have to do with Trump
Trump’s provocation and what does it mean
At a rally in Conway (Pivdennaya Carolina) on December 10, Trump said that “we want to woo” Russia, and will fight “everything that lures it.” To attack any NATO member that does not “cry the devil.” It is said that under the Alliance statute, its participants are likely to spend less than 2% of GDP on defense needs. At the front of the Rocks of the Deades, Dania Cetteri, I was the time of the rehabilitation of the US President Donald Trump, criticizing the b. In his words, NATO never “went bankrupt” without Trump becoming President of the United States.
“I said: “We all have to pay.” They said, “Well, since we don’t pay, are you still going to kidnap us?” I said, “Definitely not.” They couldn’t believe it,” he described one of the zustriches From the leaders of the NATO countries.
Nibito the president of “one great country” asked him how to kidnap the United States
” “No, I wouldn't kidnap you. In fact, I would want them (Russia, – ed.) to give up everything they can lure. You have to pay. You have to pay for the money,” Trump said. p>
Photo: Donald Trump told his friends about the threat that Russia would never want to attack its allies in Europe (Getty Images)
Significantly, at the heart of the Organization of the Atlantic Treaty lies a guarantee of collective defense, closed captivity Art. 5. According to this article, an attack on one participating country is an attack on all NATO countries. Trump's comments on Saturday were a direct reference to the fact that once the military reelection does not intend to protect partners from a possible attack by the Russian Federation.
According to CNN, Trump went on and on inaccurately describing the NATO financial system. Of course, the goal is to spend no less than 2% of GDP on defense, but this figure is just a guideline, and not a requirement to “pay off the shells.” In addition, the participating countries are not encouraged to contribute to the NATO budget for the management of the organization.
So why do you care? Ukrainian political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko appreciates that Trump’s statements cannot be taken literally, as they certainly do not stimulate Russia’s attack on European countries.
“This is not far-fetched and even incorrect in form and in essence is a push against those who, saying, that you do not want to spend pennies on defense, then once you are attacked, your problems will be. I have expressed this idea more than once when I was president. I am convinced that there is no desire to attack. Not far away, it is clear that you can find a lot of people like that,” he said in a commentary for RBC-Ukraine.
In principle, when discussing Trump’s words, it is necessary to remember that rhetoric is one thing, but practical actions are something else. Especially, there is a lot of concern about the pre-election rhetoric, which is always harsh, categorical, and directly focuses on the candidate. The protests against the armed forces have to be done with more care and attention, and so has Trump.
“Before the war, he spoke about the “Russian Cream.” When we became president, we were convinced that we didn’t recognize Crime as Russian. I think the Radicals clearly explained to you why it was so impossible to work. work it out, but it turned out differently. Once we become aware of the end of the war in Ukraine in 24 years, we all understand that it is impossible. It’s like you want to kick off the fire, which in itself is not easy and impossible realities Call for 24 years. And if you are ready for the world on Russian minds, then Ukraine and our many European partners are no good,” Fesenko said.
How to react to Trump’s words and what Europe is afraid of
As it turned out, Trump’s provocation ran into criticism. Secretary General of NATO єns Stoltenberg calling Tsi Rozmovi as such, pirivayat spialn Bezpeku, representation of the bass house Yendrew Bates – the nebus of the Ekonitzi Tu Globalniy Stabynosti in Tsiloma.
” on one – this is an attack on everyone, will ensure the safety of American families. It's all simple. Be a person who doubts this oath, it is a threat to our safety,” President Joe Biden said beforehand.
So far ahead, Trump’s other potential term is destroying international news and “hunting the enemies of America.” He called the behavior of his world-famous potential opponent conveyed as for a person who “obliges to rule like a dictator from the first day after returning to the Oval Office.”
Photo: Joe Biden, some Republicans and European leaders criticized Trump's words (Getty Images)
Trump was criticized by part of the Republican camp. The president's favorite candidate, Chris Murphy, stated that he himself is not guilty of turning to the White House through such statements. And ex-governor of New Carolina Nikki Haley, who is no longer Trump’s only competitor in the Republican Party, said that “to stand on the side of Russia is the only thing we want to earn.” Senator Lindsay Graham does not agree with the NATO-friendly rhetoric, and Senator Tom Tellis appreciates that the committee has not yet explained the US obligation to be a member of the defense alliance.
Vice-head of the committee to the Senate from intelligence, Republican Marco Rubio, who sponsored the law that blocked the US withdrawal from NATO without praising Congress, said that in New Carolina Trump told an “anecdote” of hours of his presidency.
< em>“Don’t speak like a traditional politician, we didn’t go through this. People don’t even realize it yet,” he said and added that the US President may also be dissatisfied with the allies’ spending on defense. “Trump is simply the first to define himself in such terms.”
Europe reacts harshly. The head of EU diplomacy, Josep Borrell, noted that NATO cannot depend on the mood of the US President. The intercessor of the Minister of Foreign Affairs of Poland, Andrzej Szejna, called Trump's statement a red line. Now Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk is growing a rational grain so that if Europe does not value its security, it will sooner and later end in disaster. In a similar vein, the head of the European Union, Charles Michel, hung his head.
“Reckless statements about NATO security and solidarity under Article 5 will serve Putin's interests unnecessarily. They will not bring more security to the world. However, they will Once again we speak out on the need for the EU to further develop its strategic autonomy and invest in defense,” wrote the Minister of Microbiology and Social Security X.
In any case, it is not at all obligatory that Trump, once elected by President, is as timid as it seems. However, we need to respect that if you have such thoughts in your head, it is a pity that you should blame the song of the rhizika, the vigil for Europe.
“Why should the European countries be afraid? That the United States will become an unreliable partner, without the solidarity of the coming world. There is no constant Russian aggression and no help for Ukraine.The evidence of the Trump presidency has shown “We will no longer be able to act in the traditional way for Europe, for example, if the United States plays first fiddle in NATO,” said Volodymyr Fesenko from his perspective.
On the other side, US policy under Trump, we are in front of us depending on who has the key plantings of his team. Who will become the State Secretary, the Minister of Defense, the Deputy Minister of National Security etc.
“Of course, Trump will be able to present ideas, but the word will remain behind him, but in the diets, those who have less competence, and above all, international politics, will listen to many more qualified people. These will be representatives of the old classical republic which schools focus on power streaming “Russia? Who are the people with populist bravados? God forbid, someone like Tucker Carlson (a great TV presenter who interviewed Putin last year – ed.) appears there. It would definitely be easier to stem the chaos,” the political scientist added .
Possible risks for NATO and Ukraine
Trump's frontline advocate for national security, John Bolton, said that the threats of the leader of the Republican Party to NATO should be taken seriously.
“If you think that the US wants to leave NATO – I think that the threat is very real, and it would be small, but it would be an extremely bad legacy for the United States. And not less so in the Mid-Atlantic region, but much broader,” he said.
< img src="https://baltimorechronicle.com/wp-content/uploads/2024/02/515ef8609ffad9fe119af7797b5f0bbc.jpg" />
Photo: many members of Trump's team are calling for serious threats to be made against NATO (Getty Images)
Fesenka thinks that Trump does not necessarily want to actually withdraw the United States from NATO . This would be more damaging to international interests and would create a lot of problems for America itself, since instability in rich places in the world is to blame.
“The major risks associated with Trump are not specific. But the potential risks are similar to NATO. It is not a fact that under the new United States will try to deprive the Alliance, but it could weaken the role of America or interfere with the necessary decisions. existence, inconsistency of Trump and him Throwing from extremes to extremes can have a negative impact on the development of the mind,” meaning vin.
At a rally in New Carolina, before everything else, Trump condemned the vision of billions of dollars of financial assistance, obviously pushing against Ukraine. Behind these words, money may appear in the face of loans. As The New York Times writes, the statement was made after Republicans in Congress opposed increased aid to Ukraine. The news also increased respect for Putin’s words in an interview with Tucker Carlson, who called on Washington to accommodate Moscow’s actions in the occupied territories. At Zakhoda, they caught it, close, as a call for the Republicans to block Ukraine’s help, says NYT.
Miring about the threats to Ukraine, Fesenko says that Trump managed to create great things long before the election iv.< /p>
“The situation in the US Congress is a legacy of Trump’s position, which will categorically block compromises with Joe Biden. This has already created great problems. Even with high levels of confidence, once he becomes president, there will be no budgetary support for Ukraine You can save your life, but often let it go to waste credit, because the position of the populists is that they can spend pennies on their country. And, insanely, the great risk is that for Trump, especially at the beginning, we will begin to skimp to the point of home ownership in Russia,” – like a political scientist.
If there is a threat for Ukraine on the road to NATO, then they say about it. First of all, substantive Euro-Atlantic integration is actually blocked by the US administration. In other words, the Alliance actually praises Trump much less for other food. There is no talk of starting a war, but the Biden administration is in no hurry to ask Ukraine, Fesenko emphasizes.
There is only one way out – to prepare for Trump’s possible attack and establish communication with his team. The Ukrainian side is already dealing with this. For example, for days Kiev was visited by a delegation headed by the Congressional Intelligence Committee, Republican Mike Turner. And in a recent interview with CNN, the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Kirilo Budanov, called Trump “a proven person who has fallen and risen many times.” In other words, let’s say about those who are the henchmen of the Russian Federation – “continuous misfortune.”
“The passage about him has a little bit of complementary form. Everyone knows that Trump does not like criticism. So, the element of entitlement does not mean that we support him. The imperative of Ukrainian politics is bipartisan support. We do not neither republicans nor democrats are encouraged , especially if elections are carried out with both parties,” Fesenko added.
Help for Ukraine. Why is NATO preparing a backup scenario and how is it connected with Trump
Long before the elections, Trump is trying to take control of American politics and the Ukrainian order of the day. It’s enough to marvel that one idiot doesn’t praise the law on increasing control over migration in exchange for aid to Ukraine, which blocked the document that the Republicans and Democrats have been fighting over for many months.
This problem is causing the emerging allies to reconsider their approach to military supplies. According to Handelsblatt, US Presidential Adviser for National Security Jake Sullivan and NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg developed a concept in which the Ramstein format could be transferred to the Alliance. They are supported by the edges of Converging Europe, Great Britain and France. Nіmechtina is adjusted skeptically through war, which will confirm the Kremlin’s narrative that NATO will never wage a war against Russia.
Formally, they will not be seen in Ramstein, unless they are still in view block structure is possible transfer control to the Alliance. And as a result, the United States will lose the status of the leader of the group, and the format will have a collective head in NATO, write Handelsblatt. There has been no official comment on the new product yet. Ale is not turned off, so that zustrich 14 fierce can shed light on it.
Political scientist Volodymyr Fesenko gives a positive assessment of the review of the assistance mechanism. In his words, this can provide insurance for Ukraine and thus serve as a spoiler in the event that Trump becomes President of the United States.
“The “Ramstein” infection is important about American leadership. In order not to lie behind America organizationally, so as to help Ukraine, the United States would immediately leave NATO, requiring the transfer of other logistics. That’s right, European partners will also need Be sure to prepare and develop a variety of backup scenarios help Ukraine,” he said.
In my opinion, Trump’s successors can be discussed, in private, at the Munich Security Conference, which will take place on February 16-18.
“It is possible that it is necessary to speed up the creation of the European security system. Estonia's Prime Minister Kaja Kallas called Trump an “alarm clock.” Europe needs to take a leap and think about how to protect itself. Trump's plans “We have already played a positive role,” Fesenko summed up.
About plans to reconsider US leadership in NATO and Ukraine, it seems, were stated by representatives of the “Weimar Tricut” – France, Germany and Poland. Previously, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk noted that these countries themselves can play a major role in supporting Ukraine and show Putin that Europe is not tired of it.
Terms are also important. information about the war between Russia and Ukraine read on the RBC-Ukraine channel on Telegram.