The Russian military is continuing a series of massive attacks on Ukrainian energy. Why is there an emphasis on thermal power plants and central heating systems, which have been renewed for many months.
Report on this, the results of attacks on TES and TPP, as well as on those in which occupiers have become more likely to hit generation facilities ii, – from the material of RBC-Ukraine.
During the preparation of the material, the following sources were used: publications of the Financial Times, The Wall Street Journal, data from Wikipedia, statements of Ukrainian officials.
Zmist
- Which stations were attacked by Russia and what we know about the inheritance
- Briefly about the energy system and how TES differs from TEC
- Has the aggressor changed tactics? What does this mean
- How the Russians are preparing to attack with attacks on the TES
- How can they continue attacks for a long time and what to look for
Which stations were attacked by Russia and what is known about the inheritance
The Russian Federation destroyed most of the generation facilities with missile strikes. Prime Minister Denis Shmigal spoke about this past year. In this way, Ukraine has spent over 6 GW of its energy system.
“This is both hydropower and coal energy. They will continue to attack our energy facilities, becoming depleted transformers, generators. Unfortunately, over the past few years Russia has lost 80% of its thermal generation,” he said.
A series of strikes continues in the other half of the war. Zokrema, on the 22nd there was a large-scale attack on the Ukrainian energy system. As a result, the largest energy company, DTEK, spent nearly half of its efforts, and DniproGES became the largest resource. The greatest destruction was in Kharkov: all the heating plants were built, including the great TPP-5. From that hour, the regional center will be healed at the expense of other regions.
There is no further information about how many stations have been damaged since that time. It appears that the impact of January 22 damaged all power units at the Burshtinsky and Ladizhinsky TES near the western part of the region. The level of renovation is from above 50% to full.
The blows of the 24th February fell on objects near the Lviv region. Then Ukraine reduced the export of electricity and increased imports. And on the 29th, the Russians attacked three unnamed DTEK stations, as well as the Kaniv and Dniester hydroelectric power stations. As President Volodymyr Zelensky stated, Moscow wanted to repeat the disaster with the Kakhovka dam, but Moldova stumbled under the threat of the Dniester hydroelectric power station.
Expert Maxim Bilyavsky in the commentary of RBC-Ukraine, naming two possible reasons . First of all, Moldova helps our country with the transit of electricity. In another way, its balance often lies at the station near Transnistria. Obviously, in this way, Russia wanted to speed up the possibility of importing for Ukraine and increase the stock of Moldova from the so-called PMR.
30 February it became known about the external ruin of the Zmiivska TPP near Kharkov. As reported by the state-owned company Centerenergo, all units have been reduced, and additional equipment has been damaged. The stage of renovation is from complete to significant. It is more accurate to assess the scale after sorting out the rubble. And DTEK announced that 5 of 6 of its stations were seriously damaged, repairs of which may take until the turn of the year.
At the end of the 11th quarter, Russian troops hit the Tripilsky TES. This is the most powerful power plant, which generated more than half of the energy for enterprises in the Kiev region. As a result, it was completely scaled up; Centerenergo’s scale is called greedy. Significantly, the company spent 100% of the generation (after spending the Zmiivska TPP and burying the Vuglegirskaya TPP near the Donetsk region).
For more details about the attack on the Trypilska TPP, read the material from RBC-U region.
Experts respect that the ruination of this station will not cause critical consequences for the energy system of the Kiev, Cherkasy and Zhytomyr regions, as they have ensured. The station did not operate with increased pressure, but during the summer period of high population, there might be a risk of depletion. “Centerenergo” knows the terms for TES renewal, but does not call it “through objective reasons.”
Also, as a result of today’s strikes, another thermal power plant was damaged, which will bring Kharkiv to life. Unaffected by attacks, the place continues to function, the metro, trolleybus and tram routes have been launched.
Briefly about the energy system and how TES differs from TPP
The Ukrainian energy system has a disorganized structure without a specific center. Generation supplies electricity at a single rate, according to which it reaches the resident. Local connections are connected through substations.
Most of the generating pressures are experienced by the sovereign power. These are nuclear and hydroelectric power stations, as well as part of thermal power plants and thermal power plants. There is also a large number of TES and TEC, wind and solar stations in private power. The main governing body is the Ukrenergo company, which is under the control of the Ministry of Energy and ensures the delivery of energy to subsidiary companies.
The largest customers:
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DTEK – Burshtinska, Ladizhinska, Dobrotvirska, Kurakhivska, Krivorizka, Prydniprovska, Zaporizka (Energodar), Luhanska (Schastya) and Zuivska TPP (the remaining three are under occupation)
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“Centrenergo” – Trypilska, Zmiivska and Vuglegirska (in occupation) TES
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“Ukrhydroenergo” – Kyiv HES and Kyiv GES, Kremenchucka, Kanivska, Dnistrovska HES and GES, Dnipro HES-1 and HES-2, Kakhovska HES (remains three zruynova)
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“Energoatom” – Rivnenska, Khmelnytska, South Ukrainian and Zaporizka nuclear power plants (remaining under occupation)
Photo: about a third of all generation occurs at thermal stations (wikipedia_dmitri_tovstonog)
Before Russia's large-scale invasion, over 50% of generation came from nuclear power plants and up to 7% from hydroelectric power stations (HPPs) and pumped storage power plants (PSPS). Thermal generation facilities TES and CHPP provided nearly a third of the electricity.
Till 2022, thermal power plants and central power plants provided nearly 34 GW of energy to the river. The capacity of the stations was 4 times higher than the capacity of the mains – 27.7 GW versus 6.5 GW. Zagalom in Ukraine was operated by 14 TEC and 21 TEC. As a result of the attacks of 2022-2024, some of them were destroyed or destroyed. As was said above, there is no exact information about the stage of ruin.
Why did the Ukrainian TES and TEC become the main goals at this stage of the war? President Volodymyr Zelensky gave a statement on this issue just a few years ago.
“Russian terrorism is now aimed at such attacks as the energy drain of Ukraine,” he said.
Thermal power station (TES) is a facility that generates electricity by burning coal and gas in special boilers. They circulate water through pipes, which, when heated, turns into steam, under pressure wraps turbines that generate steam. Heat is generated favorably, as a rule, for a satellite location. The main process is the burning of fire, which creates thermal energy and converts it into electricity with the help of turbines and generators.
A combined heat and power plant (CHP) is a station that generates electricity and heat for local energy supply. As technology progresses, additional electrical energy is supplied to the production site. In general, the production of stench takes up to 10% and operates according to a consistently consistent schedule.
What do you need from the station? The main part of the electrical energy is generated by the AES trio. And thermal and hydroelectric power may be of utmost importance for balancing the system during peak periods. The maneuverability of hydrogeneration is not enough to stop the decline, so the role of the TEC becomes less important.
Has the aggressor changed tactics? What does this mean
Russia has completely changed its tactics of attacking energy infrastructure. Now it is launching high-precision missiles at power plants in areas less protected from Kiev. Actions from them will not be resumed until winter, writes the Financial Times.
The legacy of extreme attacks is much stronger until the winter of 2022-2023. The fragments of stench are aimed at detecting unlawful harm. Let me remind you of the words of DTEK General Director Maxim Timchenko, who says that if the blows are not repeated, no less than 50% of damaged power units will be reconnected to the limit.
If the weather was not warm, imports from European countries and the increase in the production of renewed energy, Ukraine shut down without massive blackouts, like a bygone fate. No one is left. It’s a lot to do with the fact that it was important to hit different stations and transformers. And there was a desire to distribute graphics throughout the country. Now, with targeted strikes on stations, the Russians are trying to destroy great places and industrial areas.
Another important thing to consider during the winter of 2022-2023 is the replacement of expensive ballistic missiles. For example, in one of the recent attacks, Russia hit the TEN with missiles worth 100 million dollars. Ukraine has only a handful of Patriot systems that have been destroyed.
As before, drones are being used in large numbers as a cheap way to destroy energy facilities, such as transformers, says a representative of the Main Directorate іння intelligence services Andriy Chernyak.
“We have come to the conclusion of the attack on the beginning of winter, but now it’s important that the missiles, like the stinks of Vikorist, were prepared recently,” said Vyn. According to his estimates, the Russians are deprived of missiles for another 1-2 great attacks in the near future.
After the brutal strikes, imports from the European Union reached a record 18,700 MW/year, which equivalent to the energy from two power plants. One of the options in May could be an increase in the number and pinkness of wind and solar power stations across Ukraine, in order to minimize generation disruptions as much as possible.
How the Russians are preparing an offensive with strikes on the TES
Moscow does not welcome strikes on energy projects. I want this infrastructure to first provide for the civilian population, and not for the needs of the population. And attacks on it are protected by international conventions.
The current Russian Ministry of Defense says that the attack at night on the 11th quarter, which also destroyed the Tripilska TPP, was carried out in response to the Ukrainian attacks on oil refineries. According to the energy, they hit with long-range missiles from the air and sea bases, as well as drones. Traditionally, “all targets are at stake,” as a result, the work of the military industry has been completely destroyed.
The American edition of The Wall Street Journal writes that there may be a large-scale campaign of attacks on power plants in related to shuttering the entrance to help. І is an element of increasing Moscow’s advantage in the third stage of a large-scale war.
WSJ pays respect to the statements of the Ukrainian authorities. With these words, tens of thousands of families have lost their lives today without light. And President Zelensky again called on his partners to provide additional help to the PPO. Having waited so long, the missiles will soon run out if the attacks continue at their current pace.
Shortening supplies makes it difficult to make important choices about which places and infrastructure to protect and which ones not. And the recent attacks further accelerate the deterioration of the country’s energy infrastructure.
By attacks on the civil infrastructure, Russia aims to lay the foundation for future offensives. To begin to develop the anti-type defense and increase the resources from the front.
“Before the summer, the situation with Ukraine’s anti-aircraft defense may become even more critical,” suggests military analyst Franz Stefan-Gady of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS).
How long can the attacks continue? і what to check
Throughout the spring, Russians plan to deliver many more massive attacks on energy. Representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate Vadim Skibitsky spoke about these comments to RBC-Ukraine at the beginning of the month.
In his words, intelligence estimates the stockpile of Russian high-precision missiles at 950 units. We are talking about missiles of the operational-strategic and strategic level with a range of over 350 kilometers. Soon, when they manage to accumulate over 900, a series of attacks begins. When the reserves again reach the 900 mark, Russia will take a break. However, local shelling may still continue.
The Ministry of Energy does not undertake to predict the situation for the coming months. According to the words of the Intercessor Minister Svetlana Grinchuk, the enemy’s plans are not in sight, and there may be consequences as long as schedules for the whole of Ukraine are not planned, otherwise everything may change. And Minister German Galushchenko started talking about increasing electricity tariffs.
“Today's situation is even more complex due to the fate of the past, as we have wasted a lot of hydroelectric energy and waste carry out planned repairs of nuclear units,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg, but for days he clarified that there was no decision on tariffs yet.
In addition, the extent to which future attacks will impact the energy system will remain as long as possible in Ukraine
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