The NYT report on the recent planters reported that “Ukraine is not conducting counter step to this fate” , the fragments of the allies will be found completely. However, it is not excluded that we may still be preparing for the attack of spring, but through the weather factor this term may still be delayed.
About those that are needed by the ZSU, if we can be prepared before the onset and what matters why in 2024, the rate is lower in the materials of RBC-Ukraine.
Zmist
- NYT wrote that “Ukraine is not carrying out a counter-offensive tsyogorich”
- Why is it important to distinguish between the concepts of “counterattack” and “offensive”
- The Ukrainian army will stop the flow of new people no earlier than the fall
- KABIs are one of the great problems at the front, and the F-16 is the first step before the attack
- Weather factor and why there may be an attack in 2025
NYT wrote that “Ukraine is not conducting a counter-offensive nationally”
The American newspaper The New York Times published new material in which it said that Ukraine, saying, “will not be ready to launch a counterattack or to conquer large parts of its territory before the onslaught.” The crime is aimed at two unnamed residents. Spyrozmovniks say that the supply of missiles, combat vehicles, ammunition and anti-aircraft weapons to the front line of the allied forces is “a matter of days, not just months.” In addition, part of the announced armor has not yet been purchased or prepared.
“A high-ranking NATO official said that support will lead Ukraine on the path to allow the coming fate to continue (Russian military – ed.) while Ukraine waits until it finds more approaching defenses, and more Let’s go to the front,” the NYT quotes Dzherelo.
Another high-ranking representative of the American Pentagon said that the Ukrainian forces “will continue to defend themselves for the next six months,” and “against a stationary Russia on the battlefield, which will prevent them from reaching significant success.”
Today, American officials and analysts say that the situation on the battlefield has “changed dramatically in recent years,” with nearly $61 billion in aid praised by the US Congress begins to destroy the Ukrainian defense. Zokrema, therefore, Ukraine sedated the occupiers in the Donetsk region and started on the night of Kharkiv.
Why is it important to separate the concepts of “counter-offensive” and “offensive”
Commenting on the NYT publication, military expert Pavlo Narozhny expressed the importance of distinguishing between the concepts of “counter-offensive” and “offensive”, and between them life .
“We are aware of the situation that we are aware of, for example in the village of Robotin and the enemy is quickly advancing on us and is leaving the position before it can be consolidated there. alni dii. “it’s called a counterattack if the enemy is not secured,” said Narozhny in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.
The expert draws attention to the fact that Russian troops in positions where we can potentially attack are located in places where they have been there for 1, 1.5, and sometimes even 2 years. And if we talk about storming such well-fortified positions, then this is already an offensive.
“They have already dug in there very well. And here the talk is already about the offensive. That is, we will storm very well fortified positions, which the enemy already knows and has already arranged logistics. In fact, they have already attacked us from the Sea of Azov “They will build a staircase in order to supply weapons as well,” Narozhny said with respect.
The Ukrainian army will receive a flow of new people no earlier than autumn
The expert also explains that in order to attack this or that front, the front needs to form a strike grouping. And, as a butt, like Narozhny, you can guess the same Robotina, where in 2023, the Ukrainian military was able to cover several dozen kilometers as part of the offensive.
“There was a grouping of 120 thousand people of a special type. How many reserves do we have? President Volodymyr Zelensky said that we have 14 brigades, which are not fully staffed. But he did not give details. It is obvious that this is all and brigades sit in the front and guard. What are 14 brigades? One brigade is up to 5,000 people (from active units up to 8 thousand – ed.). OMBR “It’s obvious that all the effects are mechanized with tanks and artillery, then this is a maximum of 100 thousand people,” admits Narozhny.
In addition, it is clear that half of the campaign is already in place, which means that the summer campaign is crossing the “equator,” the expert emphasizes.
“And the law about mobilization in us came into force on the 16th of May. After that, the TCC took away the tools to recruit more people and the flow of people who were not there went to the army. Let’s remember General Sodol (Yuriy Sodol later niy s imprisoned commander of the Joint Forces ZSU June 24, 2024 – ed.), who in the Parliament, before voting for this law, said that in our various units, there are 10 people in total, 3-4 – at a rate of 30-40% of the number of people in the army. That moment didn’t last,” Narozhny guesses.
He explains that immediately before the military mobilize people to fill this shortage, otherwise the community can go through basic training.
“In 80 days, to eliminate the military-regional specialty (VOS ). Most of the episodes of stench will be removed from the military unit, for example, a soldier, a tank driver, who needs to drive a tank. about mutual interaction with your partner other,” like an expert.
So, if you add 80 days of basic knowledge + basic knowledge + blessings at once, then 120 days will go into the bag.
“And here we are, from the 16th May, stuck here in life, approximately, how many people can fight. Of course, this is all an idealized picture. Perhaps, as soon as possible, there is a military evidence, and the majority in the army ї not “I needed to go through this whole story,” adds Narozhny.
So, explains the spivrozmovnik, “the flow of people until the war will only last in the spring.”
KABI is one of the great problems at the front, and the F-16 is the first step before the onset
“What is going on in the world. We all know in what kind of parties we will come, since most of the information is public. from great problems, as they are at the front, they are sold in large quantities, and one aircraft bomb is essentially a cheap version of the winged missile, which costs tens of millions of dollars. “, and an aircraft bomb costs tens of thousands of dollars,” Narozhny says .
In other words, until the problem with the KABs is resolved, it is not possible to talk about any offensive, because the enemy will be depleting our people en masse.
“Even if they are on the defensive, it is even more important to protect them, but from If they carry out any kind of offensive operations and release massive amounts of equipment onto the fields, then the enemy will be able to drop bombs and simply destroy the great number of our people. Therefore, the first risk for our offensive will be to take away the F-16,” said Narozhny.
Vin emphasizes that we are not talking about ten vinishuvachs, but about 50. This is such a large number, as if the situation with the KABAs could change a little.
“There is also a need to remove Patriot, as if they were not in military places, and at the front they shot down the enemy’s planes, which dropped these bombs. There are no F-16s in us, Patriot will go even more than the dose and at the mercy of Kiev and other places of Ukraine, mobilization is coming. and it’s unrealistic about the offensive,” – respected expert.
The wait factor and why there may be an offensive in 2025
The wait factor also comes to the fore. The spivozmovnik explains that in the spring, when the earth begins to turn into a mess, it is impossible to use important technology.
“There, self-propelled guns will not be able to dry out, and wheeled vehicles will not be able to drive throughout this whole territory. Therefore, only the offensive river. Until the spring of 2025, here in the shortest fall of the year. The soil will dry up, and the flights will arrive, and the new Patriot, And everything is gone. And also those who are mobilized, the beginning of the blessing will pass. Also, theoretically, it is possible for us to come.
Nazhgada, on the cobblestone 2024 President Volodymyr Zelentsky, saying, Shko Ukraina Rozbuted the plan of the new counteratus, ale for ogo real, I will come to the war. The Ukrainian army has 14 brigades, which are understaffed. He explained that the difficulty is connected with the locking of the equipment from the partners and added that the problem can be solved, “like a tool.” He also stated that it is impossible to talk about counter-offensive actions, the fragments of “today’s Ukraine are trying to capture what it is.”
During the preparation of the material, the interview was carried out: President Volodymyr Zelensky’s interview for Bloomberg ta Bild , publication of The New York Times and exclusive commentary by military expert Pavel Narozhny.
Read terms and important information about the war between Russia and Ukraine on the RBC-Ukraine channel in Telegram.
