Another type of breast is unlikely to stand out from other trends. It is clear that the dollar has become more expensive, but the NBU has not contributed to the significant devaluation of the hryvnia.
Taras Lesovy, head of the treasury department of Globus Bank, said this in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.
Having appointed a banker, due to the fall of leaves, exchange rate changes on the interbank bank were forced to reach a high level of 41.2-41.6 UAH per dollar. And the euro exchange rate in the context of the depreciation of the American currency after Donald Trump’s victory in the elections will continue to fluctuate: either decreasing or increasing. Apparently, on the ready-made market, there was a correction in exchange rates in anticipation of changes to the interbank bank.
“In the coming years, it is entirely possible that such trends will continue, but it is not easy to recover “Global changes will be made in response to the strengthening of currencies,” he said.
In his words, the currency market of Ukraine is under protection from rapid and uncontrolled changes (due to the regime of “kerated bunk”) and sufficient obligations of international financial assistance, which allows for the creation of equal currency exchange rates through the mechanism of currency interventions). In addition, the regulator does not affect the significant devaluation of the hryvnia, and this may even give rise to a new inflationary “whirl.”
“Currency rates are not static, but it is entirely logical that they can be seen in the future. alternating changes, but without chaotic cuts. The exchange rate movement is increasing, but it has been strengthened,” he said.
Forecast for the exchange rate
The banker predicts that the main characteristics of the foreign exchange market in the coming year (9-15 yrs) will be the same.
- The corridors of permissible currency exchanges are 41.4-41.8 UAH/dollar and 43.5-45 UAH/euro (on the interbank market) and 41.5-42 UAH/dollar and 45-47.5 UAH/euro (on the ready-made market ).
- Dependent on currency The average difference between the interbank rates and the ready-made market warehouse is 0.3-0.5 UAH.
- Average exchange rates will be in the range of 1-1.5% of the starting rate of the year.
“So rank, in the middle of the chest The situation on the foreign exchange market is unlikely to come out of the control of exchange rate changes and will be calmed down or avoided by the market. It can be taken into account that exchange rate stability is a major factor in the situation in the country, which continues to fight for its livelihood. There will be no supernatural manifestations of excitement in the coming years. “This way, exchange rate changes will be more comfortable for the market,” stated Lesovy.
Guess what, Last year, the dollar exchange rate increased sharply and reached its historical maximum – 41.69 UAH/dollar. In the other half of the year, the NBU lowered the rate to 41.44 UAH/dollar.
