The Ukrainian economy was witnessing the cry of the third rock of a large-scale war. Given the significant expenditure in energy through regular missile attacks of the Russian Federation, the country's GDP will continue to rise in 2024, and it will be realized that this process is in the process of facing the same fate after a fall of 29.2% in 2022.
Ukraine’s main economic plans for 2024 and forecasts for 2025 – read in the review of RBC-Ukraine journalist Alik Sakhna.
Zmist:< /p>
-
Ukraine's economic growth in 2024
-
How much the economy is growing 2025 roc
-
Inflation and wage growth
-
What will the dollar exchange rate be
Economic growth of Ukraine in 2024 has become possible international support, stable agricultural exports, updated infrastructure and stable internal coexistence. With the call of war, effective business and government initiatives created a renewed economy, adaptation to new minds and the foundation for further growth.
Podsumki of economic growth of Ukraine in 2024
For 11 months of 2024, Ukrainian gross domestic product (GDP) increased by 4%. As reported by the Ministry of Economy, this indicator for leaf fall has increased to 0.9%, which is 0.6% less than in the past. Positive dynamics in leaf fall were demonstrated by galus transport, everyday life, domestic trade, processing and manufacturing industries.
Until the end of the year, GDP growth will remain at 4%, which will exceed the current forecast of the National Bank of Ukraine by 0.4 hundredths of a hundredth point. In its inflation forecast for the fourth quarter of 2023, the NBU estimated the growth of the Ukrainian economy at 3.6% in 2024. Following the fate of the National Bank, the insurer changed factors, adjusting the country's GDP forecast by 1 percentage point. Just as the National Bank predicted growth of 3% for the country, it also increased the estimate to 4%.
The NBU emphasized that the economy is growing faster over the course of the period nerds:
-
higher yield of early grain crops;< /p>
-
smaller deficit electricity;
-
Wide adaptation of enterprises before turning on the light.
< /li>
The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank were more pessimistic about the growth of the Ukrainian economy. In 2023, the IMF predicted that Ukraine's GDP would grow by 3.2% in 2024, and the World Bank gave a similar estimate. Against the backdrop of fate, the IMF lowered its forecast to 3%.
However, the IMF handed over a negative scenario to the draft Memorandum: if the war will intensify in 2025 and will last until the end, then In 2024, the Ukrainian economy may fall by 1.7%, and in 2025 – by another 1%.
Based on all the obvious forecasts, under the guidance of fate, the Ukrainian economy will grow by at least 3%, and under the optimistic scenario – by more than 4%.
How much the economy will grow in 2025 growth
An even greater difference is expected in economic growth forecasts for 2025. It is easy to explain that in the minds of the war it is extremely important to transfer the power supply system, industry, agricultural sector and market economy one or two rivers ahead.
For example, the World Bank predicted in 2024 that Ukraine's GDP will grow by 6.5% in 2025. However, the European Bank of Russia, having reconsidered its plans and reduced the growth rate to 2%, has now transferred the main growth to 2026, where +7% of GDP was transferred.
European Bank for Reconstruction and The development was also promptly corrected by his forecast. In the beginning of 2024, the EBRD estimated GDP growth by 6%, but last month, it lowered its forecast to 4.7%. The main reason for the change was the reduction in power generation and transmission facilities for electricity as a result of the war.
The state budget for 2025 contains even more conservative figures for GDP growth: 3.5% for 2024 and 2.7% for 2025. This caution is explained by the need to address possible negative scenarios: continuation of the war, increased defense spending, inflation, reduction in international financial support and reduction export drink. This allows the state to be prepared for the deepest economic minds.
Currently, many experts and analysts are predicting more optimistic indicators. Zokrema, the National Bank, in its opinion, believes that GDP growth in 2025 will exceed the national figure. According to the forecasts of the NBU, the Ukrainian economy will grow by 4.3% in 2025.
It is likely that the publication of updated economic plans will begin around 2025. What can lead to a change in the forecast is that both growth and decline depend on the current minds and factors flowing in.
Inflation and wage growth
The government budget for 2024 included river inflation at 9.7%. And in today’s inflation report, the National Bank predicted a lower level of 8.6%. Already in the report for the fourth quarter, this forecast was lowered to the level that was included in the state budget. Prote, according to data from the State Statistics Service, in the fall of 2024, the rate of sustainable inflation in the river world rose to 11.2%.
“The actual rate of price growth exceeded the trajectory of the forecast published in the inflation report for the year 2024. The main reasons for the recent increase in inflation were the rise in prices of grub products through Fewer crops are available for agricultural crops, which has led to a reduction in the price of cheese for the grub industry. In addition, administratively regulated prices have increased more rapidly, and prices have fallen lower,” according to notified by the NBU.
A sharp surge in inflation prompted the National Bank to raise the tax rate from 13% to 13.5%. Varto notes that at the beginning of the war, the NBU trimmed the rate to 10%, and at the beginning of the 2022 year, it increased it to 25%. This rate remained unchanged until the end of 2023, after which the National Bank began to gradually reduce it. In 2024, the regional tax rate was saved at the level of 13%.
The budget for 2024 has transferred a lot, so that Ukrainian doctors will average 21 809 UAH In addition, real wages will increase by 8.5% due to the inflation rate, which, as we have previously predicted, was predicted at 9.7%.
The State Statistics Service reported that in the third quarter of 2024, the average monthly salary in Ukraine dropped to UAH 21,946, which is 22.3% more than the same period last year. At the same time, the dollar wages of Ukrainians have already exceeded the pre-war level.
The increase in real wages, with the regulation of inflation, has increased to 11.1% in the region. The NBU predicts that in 2024 nominal wages will increase by 21% (previous forecast – 16.1%), and real wages will increase by 14% (previous forecast – 9.7%).
The government budget for 2025 includes inflation at 9.5%. According to NBU information, the price increase is expected to be 11.4% in the first quarter of 2025. The main reasons will be an increase in excise taxes on Tyutun's products from 1st spring 2025, as well as an increase in prices for pharmaceutical products, medical goods and equipment.
Currently starting from the spring of 2025 Unfortunately, inflation will gradually decrease. Accept the latest price increases:
-
The monetary policy of the NBU is important;
-
easing the external price squeeze;
-
decorated situation in the energy sector;
-
increasing losses of agricultural products.
< /li>
The state budget for 2025 forecasts the average salary to be 24,389 hryvnia. According to NBU forecasts, in 2025 nominal wages will increase by 16%, and real wages will increase by 6.5%. At this rate, the minimum wage will be 8000 hryvnia.
What will be the dollar exchange rate
The budget for 2024 has the average exchange rate of the dollar for deposits in the region of 40.7 hryvnia. Just in the spring of 2023, Minister of Finance Serhiy Marchenko stated that the dollar exchange rate in 2024 could move to 41 hryvnia and reach 41.4 hryvnia per dollar. In the spring of 2024, the IMF predicted that the hryvnia would devaluate to 41 hryvnia per dollar over the course of the current period.
According to NBU data, the dollar has already changed its value to 41 hryvnia. During this period, the American currency set a historical record of growth several times. However, the dollar for the third day after the third day reached a historical high – at 19, the National Bank set the dollar exchange rate to the hryvnia at 41.90.
Investment company ICU on the cob predicted that before the end of the cash flow, the dollar will still reach 42 hryvnia. By the 17th anniversary, all the great Ukrainian banks are already selling the dollar for over 42 hryvnia per dollar.
Financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn commented on RBC-Ukraine, noting that the National Bank is still adjusting the rate hryvnia, due to high inflation due to problems with electricity supply, shelling of port infrastructure and lack of labor force in the market, the government may be forced to reconsider the exchange rate of the national currency.
“The forecast exchange rate of the hryvnia for 2025 is 45 hryvnia per dollar. Based on numerically unimportant factors, this exchange rate may fluctuate and approach up to 50 hryvnia per dollar if the situation worsens. Significant imbalances have accumulated in the market, and the main driver of this is the inflationary impulse, which has not yet fully manifested itself on the exchange rate of the dollar,” said Shevchyshyn.
However, for now According to the IMF forecast, exchange rate Dollars reach 50 hryvnia badges for 2028 years. In 2025, the exchange rate will be fixed at 45 UAH/USD.
It’s a good idea how prices for products have changed across the river and are now rising in price to the new levels.
When preparing the material, a commentary by financial analyst Andriy Shevchyshyn was provided by Vikoristan for RBC-Ukraine, as well as data from the websites of the State Statistics Service, Ministry of Economy, National Bank of Ukraine and research of the International Monetary Fund, World Bank, European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, investment companies ICU and European Business Association
