The past river often sounded divine with its swings at Donald Trump and the war on For those close to you, there is no reason to believe that 2025 will be calm. The authoritative Politico has compiled a list of “black swans” – unforeseen opportunities that could change the world’s fate.
RBC-Ukraine publishes a short translation of the Politico article.
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The largest cyber attack in history
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Secret nuclear defense program for Iran
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The discontented alliance between Trump and Xi Jinping
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Israel and Palestine: The main problem of the two powers
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Investigated Korea and the Secret Nuclear Destruction
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Putin's defeat in Ukraine and Lukashenko's fall
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The ruinous gap in quantum computing
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Market collapse and global panic
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View of separatism in the states before the epidemic: “black swans” for the USA
Politico futurists, scientists, foreign political analysts and other experts have included a number “black swans” – from the largest cyber attack in history to the rapture alliance between Trump and Xi Jinping, Volodymyr Putin's military defeat in Ukraine and the collapse of the regime of Alexander Lukashenko
“The future scenarios may or may not be the outcome of 2025, but there is no trace of them. If we carried out this to the right, the low forecasts turned out to be very prophetic,” reads publications.
Significantly, from a minor shift in forecasts to those that often came true, one can see the death of people at a pre-election rally in the United States, a swing at a presidential candidate and deadly hurricanes.
Largest cyber attack in history
The year 2025 could see the worst cyberattack in history, which could destroy a significant portion of the world's infrastructure, says Gary Marcus, a professor in the Department of Psychology at New York University.
It pays tribute to the growing popularity of generative intelligence, which can become an ideal tool for cybercriminals. It is wonderfully suitable for creating genuine texts (for phishing attacks) and fake videos practically without cost. In addition, generative tools are increasingly being used to create program codes, coders can understand them without realizing that they are jeopardized by security.
And as for the butt The upcoming US administration, which seems to be intent on maximizing the speed of spending on cybersecurity, will inherit others, and then the world may become poured out for notorious hacker attacks.
The secret benefit of nuclear programs Iran
The Russian Federation, more than the United States, does not want Iran to disintegrate its nuclear defense, and respects the National Intelligence Agency's Matthew Burrows. Regardless of what is left behind in the supply of Iranian armor, and the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria, the Russian dictator Putin is criticized for the rapid influx of the Russian Federation at the Close Gathering.
Donald Trump is also in a bad place. Its Republican allies are eager to help Israel attack Tehran's nuclear facilities, but the newly elected US President was detained by the Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, who is afraid of Iranian attacks on his country. nafta objects. For Trump, this meant a sharp increase in energy prices.
“One night, Putin called Trump on a stolen line, informing him that he had a secret favor in order to stop Iran is developing a nuclear defense. Putin is reconsidering that Iran will need a 5-point pause in its nuclear defense if Trump persuades Israel to attack,” says Burrows.
Trump’s discontented alliance and Xi Jinping
2016-2020 marked the peak of competition between China and the USA. The long-term economic plan “Made in China 2025” was seen by America as a direct threat, but then Beijing lost its claims, and Washington’s priorities also changed.
Trump vowing to end the Russian-Ukrainian war. They will not be attracted to Putin, they can work with everything else to achieve a pleasant peaceful outcome, says the founder of the Chinese Economic Laboratory, Nancy Qian.
Trump also promised to limit immigration to the United States. This, of course, will shorten the supply of labor force and promote stable prices. How can you afford high prices on Chinese goods, which means similar prices? If it happens, Trump will give priority to immigration over tariffs. This opens another door for negotiations and compromises for Trump and Si. So 2025 could be a disaster if the leaders of the USA and China reveal that they have more strength, but it doesn’t work out.
Israel and Palestine: the top problem of the two powers
The most important “black swan” could be caught at the Close Gathering, and would be on the verge of erupting a conflict between the Israelis and the Palestinians, predicts top CIA official John McLaughlin.
This is an option for the outgoing leaders, although the chances, given the duration of the oncoming fate, are low. In the event of a change in the order in Israel, the dismantling of the settlements on Zakhidny Bereza, and the Palestinians will have to find a way to unite under a new body that could represent them in the negotiations. Finally, a great deal is needed from the side of the great Arab nations, especially Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.
“This lanyard under the table incredible, which moves him to the top of the list of “black swans,” said McLaughlin.
Since there are no negotiations to end the war in Ukraine, he is very confident in being a “black swan”. However, it can lead to important effects in Western Korea, Iran and China. For example, the DPRK could bring thousands of soldiers back for some kind of conflict with the Illegal Korea.
Ivanced Korea and the Secret Nuclear Destruction
At first glance, this scenario is based on the scientific one Spokesman for the Quincy Institute for Subordinate Government Nathan Park.
In my opinion, the world could be shaken by the testing of a nuclear weapon in New Korea. After which President Lee Je-myung (or sometimes called) declare that his country is a nuclear power and withdraw from the non-disruption treaty. And Donald Trump praised the “great beautiful bomb” of Seoul, as a sign of readiness to seriously defend itself against the DPRK, and not “sit on our hands” with the United States.
For the domino principle, Japan and Taiwan vote for power of programs. Technology has never been a problem for these countries, but with the withdrawal of the main Asian countries from the Nuclear Security Treaty, the system is becoming unstable and the era of guaranteed poverty is returning.
Striking Putin in Ukraine and the fall of Lukashenka
It is difficult to realize that in 2025 Putin will be willing to compromise with Ukraine. It is possible that Ukraine will join before NATO or face the military protection of the United States.
“Or Putin may still have victories on the battlefield – especially since Ukraine denies access to 300 billion dollars “frozen Russian assets,” says Evelyn Farkas, the former director of the McCain Institute at the University of Arizona and a great advocate for the US Assistant Secretary of Defense.
The ousted President of Belarus Svitlana Tikhanovska called on the Belarusians to prepare to overthrow the regime of Alexander Lukashenko. A negative result for the Kremlin in this aggressive war against Ukraine could be a wake-up call for Putin. By reducing the weakening of their position and the lack of profitability in order to defeat Lukashenka, the people of Belarus can gain freedom.
Ruinous abyss in quantum payments
The implementation of a practical quantum computer could be built using a wealth of old cryptographic security features that are being developed to protect special and corporate data, predicts Aziz Haq from the University of Chicago.
And it is absolutely certain that the greatest breakthrough in quantum computing will occur at the Chinese Tsinghua University around 2025. “Reveal that we will fight against each other in this trivial trade war, in order to prevent Americans from having to worry about the confidentiality of their particular data,” he said.
Market collapse and global panic
Emi Webb, CEO of the Future Today Institute and a professor of strategic foresight at the Stern School of Business at New York University, is aware that hackers and government actors may be concentrating on attacks on financial markets for help ШІ.
Vine collects a large volume of real-time market data, financial data and economic indicators, and simultaneously watches social media platforms to assess future sentiment. And before the attack begins, it generates millions of scenarios to launch a campaign with increased disinformation.
With this strategy, we are causing a massive panic in the market, which will lead to The Trump administration is in the midst of a deregulation campaign. This scale of technical failure is shocking, but the White House has neither the plan nor the personnel to correct the situation. The collapse of the US market triggers panic around the world, and further attacks are being planned on the London and Tokyo stock exchanges.
View of separatism in the states before the epidemic: “black swans” for the United States
Other scenarios of the most recent events are related to the current internal processes in the United States.
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Separatists on the march
Over the next few weeks, Trump may support the idea of the “Greater Idaho” movement to move 15 counties from Oregon to Idaho. This will lead to the capture of residents of similar and rural parts of Oregon, who will try to break away from the grip of progressive values that dominate in rural areas, predicts futurist Emi Zalman.
This will all become a signal for rich Americans who previously did not take separatism seriously. And the next logical step would be protests in Texas and California for secession from the United States, for the secession of Chicago from Illinois, and so on. Counter-meetings are afoot, and until the fall the supporters of the white race and the “American messengers” dared to join the battle. The President is moving towards a different diet as the ideas of secession and liquidation of state cordons are gaining popularity.
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New large-scale epidemic
The late director of the American Community Health Association, George S. Benjamin, is aware that one of the poorly vaccinated communities may be in the throes of infectious disease. The first symptoms will be nothing noticeable, unless the tests reveal neither flu nor COVID.
It is clear that the “zero patient” brought the disease from behind the border. The local authorities are reluctant to enforce such measures as maintaining contacts, wearing masks, social distancing and quarantine. The importance of health protection organs is due to the fact that little stench can be generated. Nowadays, social measures are filled with disinformation, and two other states have been at war for many years.
An experimental vaccine is being developed against this disease, but its stagnation does not deprive it of emergency approval. Through this, the scale of the epidemic throughout the United States is similar to that of COVID-19.
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Climatic changes melt normal
Regardless of Trump's return to the White House, efforts to combat the climate crisis may become more active across the country, says Katherine Hayhoe, a professor at Texas Tech University.
Y 2023 There were 28 natural disasters costing over 1 billion dollars, and in 2024, in just two years, hurricanes Helen and Milton destroyed roads, thousands of buildings and destroyed entire places across the world. Nine out of ten Americans were particularly harmed by extreme weather.
As the risks of climate change become increasingly obvious, bipartisan support for action is growing. The Inflation Reduction Act stimulates investment in clean energy, 85% of which is in counties that voted for Trump. The United States is quickly approaching a turning point in the Duma, when the fight against climate change becomes the norm. At the end of the day, 2025 may be the fate of such destruction, says Heiko.
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Electricity consumption will change the lives of Americans
There are no doubts that in 2025 the growth of the population will rely on energy for the development of HI systems, cryptocurrencies and the continued renewal of the economy after COVID, says the director of the company Smart Carbon, Michelle Lee.
The example of Cuba, whose power lines collapsed through aging infrastructure, and the storm and earthquake caused delays in repairs, showed what could happen in the United States. In this region, over 70% of power lines and transformers older than 25 years old will be damaged if the supply of electricity is sufficiently low. On the other hand, there is a risk of hacker attacks on postal energy systems.
Without electricity, any region, place and the United States is a breeding ground for cyberattacks aimed at protecting health and finances system. “The waste of electricity will radically change the lives of Americans and will lead to terminological and chaotic political reactions. Energy security may become the main “black swan” of 2025,” Li says.
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