Three weeks before the elections to the German Bundestag, the leading position in the election race is occupied by the bloc of the Christian Democratic Union and the Christian Social Union (CDU/CSU), writes IZ. According to a recent Deutschlandtrend poll, if the elections were held next Sunday, Friedrich Merz's party would receive 30% of the vote.
The right-wing populist party Alternative for Germany (AfD) remains in second place with 20%. The current government parties – Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s Social Democratic Party of Germany (SPD) and Alliance 90/The Greens – would each receive 15% of the vote. The left-wing parties, according to the study, would overcome the five-percent threshold, while the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and The “Sarah Wagenknecht Alliance” would remain outside parliament.
After the elections, the CDU/CSU is most likely to lead the government formation. The question of the coalition remains open: 32% of respondents would like to see the conservatives of the Social Democrats as partners, 18% support a CDU/CSU alliance with the AfD, 16% with the Greens, and 12% with the liberals of the VDP.
A government led by the CDU/CSU is supported by 32% of respondents. At the same time, 17%are ready to support a cabinet led by the SPD, 13% – a government led by the AfD, and 10% – a coalition with the participation of Alliance 90/The Greens.
Migration policy at the center of the election debates
The main topic of the election campaign remains the issue of migration. According to the survey:
- 57% of Germans support a ban on the entry of illegal migrants,
- 67%advocate permanent police control at the borders,
- 68% believe that Germany should accept fewer refugees.
Interestingly, the survey was conducted before the vote in the Bundestag on January 29, when the CDU/CSU bloc, with the support of the AfD, passed a resolution on restricting illegal immigration through parliament.
Amid the upcoming elections, the rating of trust in politicians has changed. Vice Chancellor Robert Gabe remains the most popular (29%), followed by Friedrich Merz (28%), who improved his position by 3 percentage points. Olaf Scholz also strengthened his position, receiving 24% (+4 pp), and AfD leader Alice Weidel gained 22% (+2 pp).
Three weeks before the elections on February 23, public sentiment remains tense. 83% of those surveyed said they were concerned about the current situation in the country, and only 13% were optimistic about the future. Germans are most concerned about the economic crisis and migration policy.
The survey was conducted from January 27 to 29 among 1,336 citizens, of whom 796 were interviewed by phone and 540 via an online form. Elections in Germany will be held February 23.
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