Nuclear deterrence, which has been ensured for many years by security guarantees from the United States, may be under threat. As IZ reports with reference to Defenseone, more and more American allies are considering the possibility of developing their own nuclear weapons due to concerns about the unpredictable decisions of the Donald Trump administration. Former senior Pentagon and White House officials warn that even isolated attempts to create nuclear weapons could provoke a global arms race and destabilize international security.
Content
- Why are countries changing their positions on nuclear weapons?
- Will Europe be able to contain Russia on its own?
- South Korea and Japan: the risk of a new arms race
- How will the world react to new nuclear programs?
- Trump's policies and the prospect of new agreements
- Can nuclear proliferation be stopped?
- Is it possible to restore stability?
Why are countries changing their positions on nuclear weapons?
Recent events indicate a major shift in the security policy of European states and US allies in Asia. The main reason is doubts that Washington will continue to provide an extended nuclear deterrent to its partners.
Thus, France, the only NATO country with its own nuclear arsenal independent of the United States, has proposed extending its “nuclear umbrella” to other European countries. President Emmanuel Macron announced the start of strategic discussions on the nuclear defense of continental allies. The idea received a positive reaction in Germany and the Baltic states, but leaves open key questions: who will control nuclear weapons and how interaction will be organized.
Will Europe be able to contain Russia on its own?
France has about 290 nuclear warheads, more than the UK (less than 225) but significantly fewer than Russia (almost 6,000). However, French nuclear strategy has traditionally been based on the ability to strike one or two strategically important targets, such as Moscow or St. Petersburg. This approach does not provide a sufficient level of protection for all European countries in the event of a serious conflict.
This is one reason why Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said his country “must consider the possibilities associated with nuclear weapons.” Warsaw could begin its own program to develop nuclear capabilities, which in turn would cause a chain reaction among other states.
South Korea and Japan: the risk of a new arms race
It is not only Europe that is looking for alternative means of deterrence. According to experts, South Korea is now the closest to actually launching a nuclear weapons program. The country's political elites, including the opposition, support this idea, especially against the background of growing threats from North Korea.
Japan could also launch its own program, as it has no formal military alliance with South Korea, and historical conflicts between the countries make a joint nuclear program unlikely.
How will the world react to new nuclear programs?
The growth in the number of countries possessing nuclear weapons will provoke a reaction from China and Russia. Experts believe that Moscow will not stand aside in the event of the emergence of nuclear potential in Poland or South Korea, which could lead to an aggravation of the situation.
Another factor is the potential consequences of violating the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). If one country decides to withdraw from the treaty, others could follow suit, jeopardizing the entire system of global nuclear deterrence.
Trump's policies and the prospect of new agreements
Despite the threat of nuclear proliferation, Donald Trump has repeatedly stated his desire to reduce spending on nuclear modernization and to resume negotiations with Russia and China. However, his attempts to conclude new arms control treaties have not yielded results.
Instead, the refusal to extend the New START agreement in 2021 and the US withdrawal from the nuclear agreement with Iran were serious blows to the international nuclear arms control system.
Can nuclear proliferation be stopped?
Many countries have the technology to build nuclear weapons in a short time. For example, Germany and Japan already have access to the nuclear fuel cycle through their energy programs. Experts estimate that developing the first nuclear warhead could take anywhere from one to several years, depending on the country's technological readiness.
However, a nuclear program automatically triggers sanctions and international pressure. Countries that decide to develop their own nuclear weapons may lose economic and military support from the United States, as well as face diplomatic isolation.
Is it possible to restore stability?
The response to the nuclear crisis depends on the policies of the great powers. If the United States abandons security guarantees for its allies, the world could enter a new era of uncontrolled nuclear proliferation. The question now remains: will world leaders find mechanisms to restore international stability, or will a nuclear arms race become a reality in the near future?
We remind you that we previously wrote that the US is offering two plans to end the war in Ukraine.