As the negotiations proceed to the end of the war in Ukraine, a further easing of the current sanctions against Russia will continue in the energy sector. And such a scenario could be completely real.
RBC-Ukraine can provide some clues to this move.
Contents
- Why sanctions against the Russian Federation may be eased
- What could change if sanctions are eased
- What will happen to naphtha prices and how will gas supplies to the EU be renewed?
Why sanctions against the Russian Federation may be eased
Export of oil and gas is the key source of income for the Russian Federation. This sector has been under sanctions since 2014, which were also imposed in 2022, and on the 10th of June 2025, the Joe Biden administration announced the largest round of restrictions.
By extending these fatal sanctions, the United States (at the same time with access to American energy supplies) encouraged the European Union to shorten Moscow’s penny flows to finance the war. However, the situation may change in the coming months. The administration of President Donald Trump is immediately threatening to economically “seize” the Russian Federation and is proposing to ease sanctions during negotiations with Ukraine.
For example, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, after meeting with Russian Minister Sergiy Lavrov, stated that sanctions could be lifted as part of a peaceful regulation. Later, he emphasized that Moscow has not yet earned anything for anyone.
According to Reuters data, such a possibility is visible. Zokrema, the White House have already asked the American Ministry of Finance to consider options for easing energy sanctions. Unless they act on the side of Russia, they will not be punished, as we have seen.
If, at the hour of negotiations about the end of the war, there will be a breakthrough, then Washington will soften the conflict. What will ultimately lead to sanctions for the European Union, writes Politico with letters to unnamed representatives of the Trump administration. The US President has already shown his inflow. At first, the Ugorshchina threatened to veto the continuation of visits, but after Rubio called to Budapest, she changed her mind about ending the EU sanctions program.
The current US sanctions, in effect, have hit the dark fleet of tankers that sell Russian naphtha around the world. Through this exchange, the tankers will be blocked, and the ports will fear punishment for a lot of business from Moscow. Without American sanctions, it will be difficult for Europe to self-control ships. In addition, without the support of Washington, it will not be possible to maintain the current price level of 60 dollars per barrel. Especially considering that this scheme has been malfunctioning for a long time.
In this case, at any moment, Trump may change course, proposing to weaken the relationship, for example, under the hour of bilateral contacts with Volodymyr Putin or their teams.
For days in Saudi Arabia, representatives of the United States, Russia and Ukraine held “indirect negotiations.” The result was speculation about a truce in the sky and on the Black Sea. And since Washington’s statement was in a dry tone without details, Moscow tied the safety of shipping to the imposition of sanctions against Rossilgospbank and other financial organizations, connecting them to SWIFT, removing the restriction on service in ports and sanctions for parts of ships under the Russian ensign.
Earlier, Trump said that his team was using the minds of the Kremlin. “There are five or six minds. We can see their mustaches,” he said, although he is aware of the fact that he is subject to certain sanctions.
In the meantime, don’t worry about the energy sector, otherwise they may indicate a new trend. The Ukrainian side admits that certain sanctions may be applied in order to help ensure security and justice. As Vladislav Vlasyuk expressed the President’s approval for the sanctions policy in an interview with Politico, Kiev is ready to discuss this.
What could change if sanctions are eased
Before the large-scale invasion of Ukraine and sanctions, Russia was one of the largest suppliers of fuel oil to the United States, exporting up to 1 million tons per month. The country also supplied a lot of raw naphtha, most importantly from the Far East. As soon as sanctions are eased, supplies may resume, write Reuters.
The main buyer of Russian oil and gas before the war was Europe. A few packages of sanctions and the blocking of the bloc will be freed from delay in the Russian Federation, and their obligations have sharply accelerated.
According to Eurostat data, naphtha imports from Russia in the fourth quarter of 2024 became 10% of what it was in the first quarter of 2021. Changes in the import of Russian oil and low-volume gas will be accepted until the next review of sanctions.
A serious influx on Russian energy exports and income could result in the easing of US financial sanctions. Having blocked the access of the largest banks of the Russian Federation to the global payment system SWIFT and other financial services, the exchanges increased commission fees and led to thousands of delays in payments for Russians exporters who are concerned about using alternative payment schemes. The weakening of the US sanctions after the fact unblocks transactions in dollars for them.
Today, Russian and Chinese banks have found workarounds. However, payments in currencies such as the US dollar are expensive, so oil suppliers have to work through conversions, which incurs a higher transaction fee.
At the end of 2025, the United States imposed sanctions against Gazprombank, thereby clearing payments for Russian gas for European clients that were lost. Washington came back, promptly making excuses for the Ugorshchina, Slovakia and Turkey, in order to forgive their quarrels with Moscow.
What will happen to naphtha prices and how will gas supplies to the EU be renewed?
The European Union and the United States, together with their partners in the “Great Family”, set the price for Russian naphtha at 60 dollars per barrel. The won protects the coming insurers and traders from trading on a higher level. As Washington says, Russian exporters may find more companies willing to do business with them.
Prices for Urals naphtha collapsed in 2022 as major European refineries began importing. Nina naphtha is priced at the light standard Brent (about 73 dollars) at a discount of about 10 dollars per barrel, compared with the typical pre-war price of 1-2 dollars.
Once sanctions are eased, prices for Russian Urals may rise. But it is unlikely that there will be a significant difference with Brent before the European border is squeezed. Russia will continue to sell most of its resources to India and China. And the imposition of sanctions against the dark tanker fleet will give them the opportunity to earn more money from the sale of crude oil.
If there is a shortage of gas, there are no sanctions on the import of Russian pipeline gas. Most countries have made new purchases after Russia’s large-scale invasion of Ukraine. As a result, the Russian monopoly Gazprom may become the biggest corporate victim of the war, says Reuters. In 2024, the company generated a historical surplus of 1 trillion rubles (maybe 13 billion dollars). However, as Forbes writes, the testimony of Zvitnost is zbitok, shvidshe, “paperovy.” І shows that it is depriving Gazprom of the gas business, although the holding mainly earns money for the share of its nafta subsidiary.
Easing sanctions in this area is unlikely to return Russian gas supplies to pre-war levels. First of all, Europe is faced with the task of facing the new, and in another way, infrastructure disruption (for example, under the influence of “Flower Flows” or the remaining attacks on the station in Sudzhi, which was the point entrance to the gas transportation system of Ukraine) to limit any potential gas export to Zahid.
When preparing the text, publications from Reuters and Politico were used.
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