Russia is mounting large-scale attacks on several front lines in Ukraine, hoping to impede truce and negotiations. Prote analysts do not respect the fact that they are capable of achieving significant successes.
RBC-Ukraine informs about this in a message to the Institute of Foreign War (ISW).
In the meantime, the department's analysts monitored the intensification of Russian offensive operations in the Limansky, Pokrovsky and Orikhivsky directions, as well as offensive forces in the evening of the Sumy region as a test remove the ZSU from its position in the Kursk region.
The ISW noted that while being activated, the Russian troops have not yet achieved tactically significant successes on these direct lines, and the Defense Forces will continue local counterattacks on the Pokrovsky and Toretsky direct lines.
Suddenly, the Russians penetrated at least three kilometers from the administrative cordon of the Donetsk and Dnipropetrovsk regions on two Pokrovsky plots directly. It is not excluded that the Kremlin will stand aside from sending troops to the rally in the Dnipropetrovsk region to spread chaos and fear in the information space.
Lack of power and political pressure
The ISW has confirmed that the Russian military command is unlikely to redeploy troops from the Kursk region for a potential offensive operation using the method of burying or pushing directly into the Sumi area. The reason experts say is that the Russians have insufficient operational level reserves to carry out significant offensive operations against Sumy, Kharkov and Zaporizhzhya without the redeployment of forces that are already underway on other front lines.
The Institute respects the limited possibility of the Russian Army to carry out three large-scale offensive operations against the major Ukrainian cities after such redeployments. The reason is said to be Russia's extensive expenditures on armored vehicles and special warehouses for the remaining three years of combat operations. Analysts guessed that in the winter of 2022, the Russians did not demonstrate the ability to carry out complex operations with an overnight attack on several straight lines.
“The Kremlin has so far proven unable to recruit a sufficient number of recruits for additional cryptomobilization in order to significantly increase the consolidation of the Russian military or reserves of the strategic and operational level for participation in military operations in Ukraine. Only Russian President Volodymyr Putin does not intend to hold an unpopular partial campaign in the near future, which seems unlikely,” says the source.
As stated in the ISW, at the time of the formation of the streaming report, the open channels had daily information about the ongoing redeployment of Russian troops to Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizky directly, as if They reported on the preparations for the renewal of offensive operations.
At the same time, analysts do not exclude the Russian military rotation, which is not reported in certain military units. The Russians are likely trying to push themselves between the artillery range of Sumy, Kharkov and Zaporizhzhya until a possible ground truce, in order to make it impossible for the civilian population to live in these settlements or to prepare for ground operations until the fire suppression mode is established.
According to ISW estimates, the Kremlin is likely to rely on pushing beyond the borders of regions that Russian troops cannot control, in order to take advantage of the upcoming peace negotiations.
“This can also serve to vindicate the Russians who may have acted on the side of Ukraine, including the territories that the Kremlin does not officially control, besides Crimea, Kherson, Zaporizka, Lugansk and Donetsk regions,” says the Institute of Warfare.
This year's large-scale offensive by Russia
An Associated Press report sent to Ukrainian intelligence reported that the nearby Russian army was preparing an offensive operation on an unimportant front.
It is not excluded that with spring approaching, the Russian Army plans to carry out a multi-purpose offensive along the entire front line with a width of 1000 kilometers. You can last from six to nine months. For this purpose, the Russians can redeploy forces from the Kursk region to other villages on the front, for example, directly to Pokrovsky.
The goal of the operation is to increase the pressure on Ukraine as much as possible and increase the Kremlin’s involvement in ongoing negotiations on ending the fire.
President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed this information and specified that the aggressor could attack Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizhzhya regions.
At the moment, the enemy is trying to break through the sovereign cordon near the Sumy region, but the defense forces are exhausted by numerous assault groups.
Read terminology and important information about the war between Russia and Ukraine on the RBC-Ukraine channel on Telegram.