The Baltic defense ministers have expressed growing concerns about the consequences of a possible cessation of hostilities in Ukraine. According to The Financial Times, the governments of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania believe that in the event of a lull on the front, Russia will take the opportunity to rearm and transfer troops closer to their borders, which will significantly increase the level of threat to the region, writes IZ.
Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur has said that if the war ends, Moscow will quickly redeploy its forces to the northeast. He said half of the 600,000 Russian troops currently in Ukraine could be moved closer to the Baltics. Pevkur also noted that these soldiers will not return to civilian life, as the army salary is several times higher than their previous income: “ These people will not go to different corners of Russia to pick corn… ”
Lithuanian Defense Minister Dovilė Šakalienė also expressed her concern. She said that Russia would not stop in Ukraine and would continue to build up its forces: “ Let’s have no illusions… Russia will use this time after the ceasefire to accelerate its military potential .” She stressed that the Kremlin has already developed plans to increase the size of the army and expand its military presence in border regions.
Also causing concern in the region are the joint Russian-Belarusian Zapad exercises scheduled to take place in the fall near the borders of the Baltic states. These maneuvers involve simulating a conflict with NATO, involving a large number of military equipment, personnel, and aircraft.
Meanwhile, the Trump administration is negotiating a ceasefire, but a full cessation of hostilities does not yet seem realistic. Kyiv has agreed to a 30-day ceasefire and a cessation of hostilities in the Black Sea, but Moscow has said it will stop the attacks only if Western sanctions are lifted.
In addition, the Baltic states have opposed the potential redeployment of NATO forces to Ukraine after the war. The region’s defense ministers have warned that this could weaken the Alliance’s eastern flank and jeopardize the security of their states. “ We cannot fall into the trap of having our forces somehow entrenched in Ukraine… ”, Pevkur said.
Poland and Romania also supported the Baltic states' position, stating that they were not ready to deploy troops on Ukrainian territory at the expense of their own defense. Estonia opposed Britain's plans to send its forces to Ukraine if they currently provide protection for the Baltic region.
Against the backdrop of these statements, the Baltic states are actively strengthening their own defenses with the support of NATO allies. For example, German units will soon be deployed in Lithuania, Latvia is guarded by a multinational force under the command of Canada, and Estonia is guarded by British troops, capable of quickly deploying in the event of a threat.
We remind you that we previously wrote that the Kremlin is preparing an army of 1.5 million and deploying equipment near NATO borders.