The Bitcoin halving is one of the most anticipated events in the crypto market. In 2024, the block reward was halved again, a move that traditionally triggers changes in price dynamics. How will this affect Bitcoin’s value in 2025 and 2026? Baltimore Chronicle explores potential scenarios, historical parallels, and expert analysis. If you’re an investor or simply interested in crypto development, this information is for you.
What Is a Halving and How Does It Affect Bitcoin?
A halving is a scheduled reduction in the block reward given to miners in the Bitcoin blockchain. It happens approximately every four years.
Key Effects of a Halving:
- Reduced emission rate of new coins
- Increased scarcity of BTC
- Potential price increase due to limited supply
- Growing interest from investors
Historically, halvings have triggered major price surges. For example, after the 2016 halving, BTC rose from ~$600 to $20,000 in 2017. After the 2020 halving, the price jumped from ~$9,000 to an all-time high of over $60,000 in 2021. This indicates the powerful influence of halving events on the market.
2024 Halving: Key Facts and Early Impact
The 2024 halving occurred in April, reducing the block reward from 6.25 BTC to 3.125 BTC. This event attracted significant interest in the cryptocurrency, increased trading volumes, and sparked a wave of analytical reports.
Immediate Changes Post-Halving:
- Temporary spike in volatility
- Increased activity from long-term holders
- Partial drop in hash rate due to reduced mining profitability
Over the coming months, the market is expected to stabilize, and the main effect — price change due to limited supply — should start to show.
2025 Forecasts: Analytics and Expectations
The year 2025 is likely to be pivotal in Bitcoin’s new growth cycle. Most experts agree that BTC will reach a new all-time high.
Main Scenarios:
- Optimistic – price hits $100,000–150,000
- Moderately Realistic – stabilizes around $80,000
- Pessimistic – fluctuates between $40,000–50,000 with no strong growth
Analysts from Glassnode and CryptoQuant note that BTC accumulation on cold wallets has increased, indicating bullish expectations among major investors.
Forecasts for 2026: What’s Next?
The year 2026 may mark either the continuation of a bull market or a correction phase following a price peak. This will depend on macroeconomic factors and regulatory developments.
Key Factors Influencing BTC Price in 2026:
- Central bank interest rate policies
- Crypto market regulations in the U.S. and EU
- Mass adoption of cryptocurrencies in the real sector
Under favorable conditions, BTC could hold around $120,000 or even break through $150,000. In a more conservative scenario, consolidation around $70,000–90,000 is possible.
Halvings and Bitcoin Price
| Year of Halving | Block Reward (BTC) | Price Before Halving | Price After 1 Year | Change (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | 50 → 25 | $12 | $1,000 | +8,233% |
| 2016 | 25 → 12.5 | $600 | $2,500 | +316% |
| 2020 | 12.5 → 6.25 | $9,000 | $60,000 | +567% |
| 2024 | 6.25 → 3.125 | ~$65,000 | ? | ? |
How Investors Can Prepare for 2025–2026
Investors should develop a strategy that accounts for both potential growth and corrections.
Recommendations:
- Diversify your portfolio (consider ETH, SOL, BNB)
- Use a DCA strategy (dollar-cost averaging)
- Store assets on cold wallets
- Stay updated on regulatory changes
It’s also important to assess risk levels and have a clear profit-taking plan.
Bitcoin and the Post-Halving Future
The 2024 halving is not just a technical event — it’s a trigger for a new investment cycle. Historical patterns suggest the likelihood of price growth in 2025–2026. However, there are no guarantees, so it’s crucial to combine analysis with caution.
Bitcoin has every chance to reach record levels again. But the key to success lies in strategy, market understanding, and continuously updating your knowledge.
Earlier we wrote what is an ETF in simple terms.