Sergei Rebrov's team will play in the same group with France, Iceland and Azerbaijan.
The analytical portal Football Meets Data assessed the chances of the Ukrainian national team in the selection for the 2026 FIFA World Cup .
The probability that Sergei Rebrov's team will win a direct ticket to the World Cup by winning the group with France, Iceland and Azerbaijan is estimated at 17% .
The chances of the “blue-yellows” to finish in second place in their quartet and continue the fight for a place in the final stage of the World Cup in the playoffs are 67% .
According to the forecast, the probability of the Ukrainian team taking third place is 14% , and the last fourth place is 3% .
The main favorite of Group D is expectedly considered to be the French team. The probability of direct entry of “Les Bleus” to the planetary championship is estimated at 82%.
2026 World Cup Qualifying Group D Chances (Football Meets Data Forecast)
- France – 82% (first place), 17% (playoff)
- Ukraine – 17% (first place), 67% (playoff)
- Iceland – 1% (first place), 12% (playoff)
- Azerbaijan – 0.2% (first place), 4% (playoff)
In the group stage of the 2026 World Cup qualifiers, the Ukrainian national team will play two matches in September, October and November 2025. Rebrov's team will start the World Cup qualifiers on September 5 with a nominally home game against France, and then on September 9 they will compete away against Azerbaijan.
Sixteen European teams will qualify for the 2026 World Cup. The 12 group winners will qualify directly for the final stage of the World Cup. Another four spots in the world championship will be awarded in the playoffs, where the 12 runners-up of the World Cup qualifying groups will compete with the four best group winners of the 2024/25 Nations League who finish lower than second in the group stage of the qualification.
The group stage of the European 2026 World Cup qualifiers began in March and will run until November 2025. The play-offs will take place in March 2026 and will consist of single-match semi-finals and finals.
The future World Cup will be held from June 11 to July 19, 2026, in three countries at once – the United States, Canada and Mexico. This Mundial will be the first in which 48 teams will participate. From 1998 to 2022, the World Cup used a 32-team format.