Donald Trump (Photo: Getty Images) Author: Roman Kot
Last week, the United States continued its power diplomacy towards Ukraine and Russia, using both verbal statements and practical actions.
RBC-Ukraine tells how such activity influenced the positions of the parties, and what is expected next.
Content
- Trump's Pressure on Ukraine
- What the US Wants from Ukraine and Russia
- Europe is bustling
Tomorrow, March 11, the Ukrainian and American negotiating teams will meet in Saudi Arabia. They are planning to sign the long-suffering agreement on minerals, as well as discuss the framework for a broader peace agreement. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky will not be directly involved in the negotiations, which is not surprising after his loud spat with Donald Trump in the White House the weekend before last. The Ukrainian delegation will be headed by the Chairman of the OPU Andriy Yermak, Foreign Minister Andriy Sybiha and Defense Minister Rustem Umerov.
The meeting was preceded by a very difficult week for Ukraine, when Trump's team increased pressure on Ukraine with unprecedented force – both in words and in practice.
Trump's Pressure on Ukraine
On Monday, March 3, a number of American media outlets reported, citing sources, that the United States had suspended all military aid to Ukraine. However, for a long time there was no official statement on this matter, which caused some confusion in Ukraine – to the point that President Zelensky in his evening address instructed the Minister of Defense, heads of intelligence agencies and diplomats to contact their co-defendants in the United States and obtain official information.
It was later confirmed that the aid had been suspended. Moreover, the US stopped providing Ukraine with some of its intelligence data. As sources told CNN, the US continues to share with Ukraine those that could help its troops defend themselves. However, it has reduced the exchange of data that the Ukrainian Armed Forces could use to attack Russia.
Zelensky's open statement on the social network X that Ukraine is ready to “sit down at the negotiating table as soon as possible to bring a lasting peace closer” did not help to resolve the situation.
“No one wants peace more than the Ukrainian people. My team and I are ready to work under the strong leadership of President Trump to achieve lasting peace,” Zelensky said in the note.
He expressed his readiness to “work quickly to end the war.” And he proposed concrete steps to that end: the release of prisoners, an immediate truce in the air and at sea, “if Russia does the same.”
This was apparently a reaction to Trump's statement that Zelensky was “not ready for peace with America” after his spat in Washington.
However, constructive words were of little help. In his address to Congress on March 4, Trump said he had received a letter from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky on this matter. As it later turned out, he was referring to the aforementioned message on X's social network.
However, access to intelligence and assistance have not been restored. However, US officials say the suspension is temporary, but the decision is up to the US president.
What the US Wants from Ukraine and Russia
Some light on Trump's strategy in these circumstances was shed by the US President's Special Representative for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg.
“What you're seeing now is an urgent effort by the Trump administration to bring both sides to the negotiating table to reach a peaceful resolution. And that means a carrot and stick approach to both sides. There's a lot of movement from the administration (Trump, – ed.) to put pressure on Russia, and obviously on Ukraine as well,” Kellogg said during a speech at a Council on Foreign Relations event.
According to him, the US is trying to put pressure on Russia by confiscating assets and imposing maximum sanctions on Russian energy. At the same time, according to him, the agreement on mineral resources is a means of putting pressure on Ukraine.
Trump already expects Russia to stop shelling. After another strike on Ukraine on March 7, he used threats for the first time: “Based on the fact that Russia is beating Ukraine on the battlefield right now, I am strongly considering large-scale banking restrictions, sanctions, and tariffs on Russia.”
However, for now these statements remain statements. In parallel, diplomatic relations between the White House and the Kremlin are normalizing. In particular, Putin has appointed an ambassador to the United States.
Trump's special representative for the Middle East and Russia Steve Witkoff voiced his expectations for Ukraine in the near future. According to him, the framework for a peace agreement between Ukraine and Russia may be discussed during the talks in Saudi Arabia.
“I think the idea is to create a basis for a peace agreement and an initial ceasefire,” Wittkoff said in preparation for the meeting.
Europe is bustling
At the same time as the negotiations between Ukraine and the US and the US and Russia, Europe is trying to develop its own strategy for action in a situation where there is less and less hope for the US security umbrella and protection. The conviction that America has ceased to be a reliable ally has become especially strong after Zelensky's quarrel with Trump and the suspension of US aid to Ukraine.
Some formal decisions were taken during a special meeting of the European Council in Brussels on March 6. The Ukrainian president also took part in it.
There were two issues on the agenda: European security and support for Ukraine, but the results were half-hearted. EU leaders agreed on the European Rearmament Plan, which provides for the mobilization of 800 billion euros, including 150 billion in loans for defense needs.
Also, 26 of the 27 EU member states agreed on a declaration in support of Ukraine. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, as usual, refused to vote for the decision. The declaration states support for the potential deployment of peacekeepers in Ukraine within the framework of the Common Security and Defense Policy mechanism. However, Hungary's refusal to vote means that the declaration will not be included in the official conclusions of the summit.
At the same time, a large package of military aid to Ukraine worth more than 20 billion euros failed. Politico, citing one of the European diplomats, writes that the discussion on Ukraine lasted only 15 minutes. It is likely that in the future new aid packages will be developed within the framework of the “coalition of the willing.”
As before, Europe is trying to become more active in protecting its own interests and supporting Ukraine, but it is hampered by excessive bureaucracy and complex decision-making mechanisms.
When writing this material, publications from Reuters, AFP, Bloomberg, CNN, Le Figaro, Euractiv, Politico Europe were used.