Founder of Gradus Research Evgenia Bliznyuk (photo: Getty Images, provided by the interviewee) Author: Katerina Goncharova
Recent international events related to the United States have only strengthened the conviction of Ukrainians: it is not just peace that is important to us, but also how to achieve it. The level of support for the president has grown, and the country continues to consolidate, increasingly relying on Europe and its own resilience. About the moods with which Ukrainians are following the news about the attempts of world leaders to end the war – in an interview for RBC-Ukraine.
Many of Donald Trump's statements have caused frank bewilderment since the beginning of his second presidency. Despite promises to end the war in 24 hours, the American president talked about “dictator” Zelensky with an alleged 4% support and quarreled with the Ukrainian leader in Washington on live television. After the scandal, the level of support for Volodymyr Zelensky increased, and Ukrainians do not support America as much as before.
Many Ukrainians are convinced that elections should be held not now, but only after the war is over. And they are increasingly counting on the support of Europe: hopes are pinned on Britain, the Baltic countries and France. Despite the war and economic difficulties, Ukraine is once again demonstrating its resilience and perceives the fight for independence as the main task.
How political events in the US influence the mood of Ukrainians and how they demonstrate their readiness to fight, even if there is less international aid – sociologist and founder of Gradus Research Evgenia Bliznyuk told RBC-Ukraine in an interview.
– Your recent research showed that the US is no longer perceived as one of the most important friendly countries for Ukraine. How can this change be explained?
– Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, the United States has been identified by the majority of Ukrainians as one of Ukraine’s two key partners in this war – the other partner was Great Britain. The volumes of aid, sanctions and other support from these countries were perceived by respondents as decisive.
But the latest survey, conducted immediately after the tense meeting between the Ukrainian and US presidents in Washington, did show a decline in trust in the US. In particular, 70% of respondents said that attitudes had worsened.
This was obviously caused by both the general change in the rhetoric of the American president and the signals in the media space about the cessation of military aid and the provision of intelligence. Therefore, the rapid reaction of the Ukrainians to such a change in the US course is quite understandable.
So, as of now, the US is not at the top of the list of friendly countries, having dropped to the second half of the list (between China and India), and at the same time is perceived as the sixth least friendly country (excluding Russia in this list). But it is not a fact that the situation has remained the same after the recent negotiations in Saudi Arabia. We will check this in the near future. I think that everything will be like in life – trust is easier to lose than to restore.
We are now seeing an increase in support for leaders associated with the country's defense and security , – Evgeniya Bliznyuk
– To which countries has Ukrainians’ trust shifted?
– Ukrainians perceive European countries as friendly, first of all, such as Great Britain (59%), the Baltic States (54%), France (54%), Poland (51%) and Germany (50%). Obviously, this is due to the consistent support of these countries in the context of military and humanitarian aid.
In the minds of Ukrainians, Europe is becoming the main partner and a desired ally in the war with the Russian Federation. Canada also maintains high positions in this list of friendly countries.
– Is there any difference in how the United States is perceived in Ukraine depending on age or region?
– There are no differences by region, but women and the 18-24 age group are more likely to believe that the United States is not a friendly country. They are more likely to demonstrate a critical attitude towards it.
This is probably due to the active consumption of media and social networks. And in other studies (for example, in tracking the level of subjective stress), young people and women are more prone to strong experiences, and more vulnerable to the destabilizing influence of news. So this distribution in this context is quite understandable.
– Trump said that Zelensky’s support in Ukraine is only 4%. Your research showed that this figure is much higher. Give details.
– Against the backdrop of recent events, support for the president in Ukraine has grown even more significantly. If after President Trump’s statement that Zelensky’s rating in Ukraine is 4%, the intention to vote for him among the adult population of Ukraine increased from 17 to 23%. And a week later, after a tense press conference in the Oval Office, support for the Ukrainian leader jumped to 28%.
At the same time, the president's approval rating (the so-called Approval Rating) is 49% (which is 5% higher than President Trump's Approval Rating according to Reuters/Ipsos). This indicates that society unites around the leader (as a function) in moments of external danger, which is expected.
– Can we say that Ukrainians have consolidated again in recent weeks due to external pressure and tense events?
– Of course, we see the effect of consolidation. When the US stopped all military aid to Ukraine and the transfer of intelligence, 46% of respondents said that Ukraine would be able to continue the fight even if US aid was reduced or stopped. These are, of course, declarative answers, but the large percentage of people who expect the resistance to continue is indicative.
We also see the consolidation of society in the perception of whether things are moving in the right direction in the country. If in December 2024 the share of citizens who believed that things in Ukraine were moving in the right direction was 36%, then in March 2025 it rose to 44%, almost reaching the figure of the end of 2023.
I think this is mainly due to external pressure and concerns that peace will come at the cost of concessions only from Ukraine.
Many Ukrainians are convinced that the fight must continue even in the face of a reduction or cessation of foreign aid
– Are there any expectations in Ukrainian society that Trump will somehow change his policy towards Ukraine?
– Against the backdrop of Trump’s pre-election promises to quickly end the war, we have seen a rapid increase in hopes for the end of hostilities by the end of 2025. However, even more telling is the share of respondents who expect the hostilities to drag on for years.
Thus, in the summer of 2024, 42% of respondents thought so, and already in December, against the backdrop of high hopes for the new US president, 31% of respondents expected a long war. However, now, against the backdrop of recent events, we are seeing another increase in expectations of protracted hostilities – up to 36%.
– To what extent do Ukrainians generally follow domestic political processes in the US? Does this influence their opinion?
– Ukrainians have definitely started paying more attention to international news during a full-scale war. Before 2022, society had practically no such demand. Now the average respondent closely monitors the news in European countries and, of course, in the United States.
After all, it is the United States that has been and, we hope, still is our main partner in terms of various types of support. Therefore, starting with the presidential elections in the United States, the domestic events of this country remain in the center of attention of the Ukrainian audience. However, citizens consume this news from Ukrainian sources, not from the original ones, due to the language barrier. Accordingly, the focus of attention is determined by the Ukrainian media that cover international news.
– Your research shows that a significant part of Ukrainians are confident in continuing the fight, even if the US stops or reduces aid. It turns out that we have become more confident in our own strength? What influences this?
– In my opinion, this indicator is influenced by the perception of this war as existential. That is, a war for the very existence of not only the country, but also the people. This attitude appeared after the actions of the Russian Federation in the temporarily occupied territories, where the whole world was horrified by mass murders and executions.
Therefore, in the minds of Ukrainians, there is no other way but to defend themselves. Confidence is strengthened by trust in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, because since the beginning of the war, it is the Armed Forces of Ukraine that have held the lead in the category of public trust.
Also, the increase in domestic production of weapons and military equipment, as well as the willingness to increase the volume of aid from other countries of the world, primarily European countries, has a positive impact on Ukrainians’ self-confidence.
– Despite exhaustion and fatigue, the figure of the president still remains a point of consolidation of resistance. Perhaps consolidation is influenced by something different than when we united in 2022?
– I don't see any changes in this mechanism since the beginning of the full-scale invasion. The nation has rallied around the leader, this is a completely natural reaction and a guarantee of effective organized resistance.
But, since the value of the democratic principles of the state remains at a very high level, we should rather talk about uniting around a leader, and not around a certain family name.
The confidence of Ukrainians is strengthened by trust in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, since since the beginning of the war it is the Armed Forces of Ukraine that have held the lead in the category of public trust, – sociologist
– Ukrainians are increasingly inclined to think that elections should not be held during a war. Tell us what you have managed to find out about this.
– Thus, in March, 58% of Ukrainians noted that elections should be held only after the end of the war. This figure has grown compared to the February 2025 survey, when it was 52%. People understand the security risks and how the Russian Federation can use the moment to destabilize Ukraine internally.
At the same time, if the presidential elections in Ukraine were held next Sunday, according to our data, 74% of respondents would take part in them. This figure has remained stable since July 2024. The high readiness to participate in the elections also confirms the thesis about the commitment of the majority of Ukrainians to the principles of democracy. But, given the priority of national security.
And in general, we are now seeing an increase in support for leaders associated with the defense and security of the country. The demand for building a strong, defensive country will be colossal.
– Do Ukrainians still hope that the war will end by the end of 2025?
– Among those surveyed in our study, only about a quarter of Ukrainians still hope that the war will end by the end of this year. This indicator reflects not only, and perhaps not so much, an objective assessment of the situation, but also a huge fatigue from life in war. Therefore, I interpret this indicator as a manifestation of our society’s hope for the best.