Chinese leader Xi Jinping (photo: Getty images) Author: Roman Kot
China is quite expectedly showing interest in negotiations on ending Russia's war against Ukraine. Read about whether Beijing may refuse to support Russia, why China is declaring the need to involve Europe in the negotiations, and what this all means for Ukraine in the article by RBC-Ukraine journalist Roman Kot.
Content:
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China and the Peace Talks
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China and the USA
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Russian card in the game with the USA
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Tearing Russia away from China – mission impossible?
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China's Long Game and Prospects for Ukraine
Despite his great activity in the Russian-Ukrainian direction, US President Donald Trump regularly repeats that America's main rival is China. Indeed, there are many contradictions between Washington and Beijing, ranging from different views on the world order to rivalry for influence in a number of countries in Africa, Asia and even Latin America. It is no coincidence that the backbone of Trump's foreign policy team consists of people with a more pronounced anti-Chinese than anti-Russian position – Marco Rubio and Mike Walz.
For Ukraine, the most important thing is that China consistently avoids direct criticism of Russia (although it declares “respect for the sovereignty of Ukraine”). Moreover, in the three-plus years of the great war, China has essentially become the deep rear of the aggressor country. Many dual-use goods are supplied to the Russian Federation through the territory of the Celestial Empire, various sanctions are actively circumvented through the PRC, the Russians actively sell their energy resources to the Chinese, and so on.
But with the start of peace talks brokered by Trump, China has effectively gone into hiding. At the same time, Beijing has made several significant statements – but this time in support of Europe.
China and the Peace Talks
“We believe that all parties concerned should participate in the peace process. This war is being waged on European soil. Therefore, Europe should play an important role in the peace process, “ Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said at the Munich Security Conference on February 16.
What is important is the context in which these words were spoken. The Chinese politician said them at a time when Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and US Vice President J.D. Vance were trying to find common ground on a minerals agreement. And Trump’s special envoy for Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, said that Europe would not be at the negotiating table. It is no surprise that the opinion has spread among commentators that China is taking Europe’s side in the peace process.
Moreover, Wang Yi’s statement in Munich is not the only signal of this kind.
On March 11, Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said that “China is ready to work with the international community and continue to play a constructive role for a political settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.”
Somewhat earlier, the Chinese television channel Phoenix TV showed for the first time a story about the battles in the Kharkiv region from the side of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is a significant event, because before that, in the PRC, stories about the war were filmed only from the Russian side.
But what does this mean in practice?
In the case of Wang Yi's statement and other similar gestures, China has sided with Europe in order to tear it away from the US, Darya Goch, an analyst at the Tony Blair Institute for Global Change and a sinologist, told RBC-Ukraine.
“A divided NATO is very important for China. And this is a good opportunity for them to exploit this paradigm shift in US politics, “ she noted.
But ultimately, China’s position will be determined by a broader context in which Russia’s war against Ukraine is just one element. More important is its relationship with the new US in the Trump era.
China and the USA
In China, Trump's return to the White House was met with little concern. However, to a certain extent, the US president surprised Beijing, Daria Goch told the publication. He immediately raised customs tariffs on imported goods from China from 10 to 20%. Beijing responded in kind , increasing its tariffs on a number of American agricultural products by 10-15%. Another issue on everyone's lips is the forced sale of the Chinese company TikTok to the US.
Finally, there is constant tension over Taiwan. China considers it its territory. The US does not formally recognize Taiwan as a separate independent state, but supports it in every way, including militarily, because it is home to critical chip-making facilities for the US. However, an open conflict over this island is unlikely for now.
“Publicly, the Chinese authorities talk about 'this is one country, we are one people' and about reconciliation. Therefore, the majority in mainland China do not believe that there could be an attack on their own compatriots. In addition, for a country that positions itself as a defender of the world order, an attack will lead to a deterioration in its image, “ Goch said.
Xi Jinping and Donald Trump, 2017 (photo: Getty Images)
In the end, the US has successfully constructed a strategy to contain China in the Taiwan direction. This Washington doctrine is called “strategic ambiguity.” It consists of an unspoken understanding or expectation: if China uses force against Taiwan, the US will probably use its military potential to defend the island. However, in practice, this formula leaves a lot of room for maneuver.
Trump and Xi have already spoken by phone, and a face-to-face meeting is expected in the more or less foreseeable future. However, there is little sign of any initiative on China's part. “Beijing may believe that it is giving Trump enough opportunities to hurt himself, “ Dean Karalekas, an expert on security issues in the Asia-Pacific region based in Taiwan, told RBC-Ukraine.
For example, in Europe there are already thoughts that the US is no longer a reliable ally and that they can restore some stability by counting on cooperation with China.
“Moreover, despite USAID's corruption, 'turning off the taps' (to this agency, – ed.) opened up a whole range of potential opportunities for China, which has always been more than happy to provide assistance even to unpleasant regimes in exchange for political allegiance, “ says Karalekas.
In the longer term, Trump's policies could even work in China's favor, not just in Europe but also closer to its borders.
“If we talk about a more strategic dimension, then Trump's isolationist policy, on the contrary, helps China. They (the Chinese – ed.) show: look, Trump is now abandoning Europe, so why will he continue to help Japan or South Korea, where USAID programs have also been cancelled, “ Daria Goch noted to the publication.
Russian card in the game with the USA
Since the beginning of the full-scale invasion, Russia has been a kind of “suitcase without a handle” for China – difficult to carry and there is a risk of running into Western sanctions, but to a certain extent profitable. Russia is an important source of resources and some technologies for China. But what is more important is that the Kremlin's actions allow it to create problems for the United States. Therefore, Chinese peace initiatives could not be called truly aimed at achieving peace.
It should be recalled that China had previously put forward its own initiatives to end Russia's war against Ukraine. However, there were well-founded suspicions that it was thus playing along with the Kremlin. In particular, on the eve of the Peace Summit in the summer of 2024, Beijing put forward an alternative “peace plan” to the Ukrainian one. The President of Ukraine even stated that China was pressuring a number of countries to refuse to attend the summit.
“In Beijing's view, the best outcome is a Cold War scenario in Ukraine with some kind of 'hybrid peace' that retains the constant potential to escalate into full-scale kinetic action at any time – I would say, something like the situation on the Korean Peninsula, “ Karalekas told RBC-Ukraine.
He said that if Russia were to win outright, it would not be good for China. Such a victory could push Putin into a wider European war or even moves against China in the Far East. On the other hand, the Chinese leadership does not want Putin to lose, because it would cause political chaos in Russia itself and would also threaten China’s interests in Central Asia. So a hybrid “no peace, no war” state in Ukraine would be ideal for Beijing – it keeps NATO busy and distracts it from expanding its activities in Asia.
“For example, Xi was not thrilled about Russia importing cannon fodder from North Korea because it linked what had hitherto been a regional conflict far from China's shores to an Asia-Pacific component of the situation, risking drawing NATO's attention to the region, “ Karalekas told the publication.
In his opinion, China should not play any role in the current peace process in Ukraine because it is not even close to being an honest broker.
Tearing Russia away from China – mission impossible?
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio expressed concern about Russia's growing dependence on China in an interview with conservative US outlet Breitbart News on February 25. He made it clear that Washington wants to prevent Moscow from becoming Beijing's “permanent junior partner.” This maneuver is reminiscent of what the US did in the 1970s during Nixon's presidency, tearing China away from Russia.
Current attempts to tear Russia away from China are being called a “reverse Nixon” strategy. But there are several fundamental reasons why this is difficult to implement, experts interviewed by the publication noted.
Gas pipeline “Power of Siberia-2” from Russia to China (photo: gazprom.ru)
First, the similar worldviews of the two capitals. “China and Russia, side by side, together with Iran, oppose the Western-led liberal international order. Russia under Putin is no more interested in becoming a responsible international stakeholder than China is; rather, both are seeking to undermine that order in favor of something they prefer, something more China-oriented, ” Karalekas told RBC-Ukraine.
Ironically, Trump's actions over the past few weeks may have done more damage to the liberal international order than years of China's own maneuvering, the expert said.
Secondly, the economies of Russia and China are too interconnected. As Reuters notes, the volume of mutual trade between the two countries in 2024 amounted to more than 244 billion US dollars. At the same time, Beijing has an advantage over Moscow. China's share in Russia's foreign trade as of 2024 was estimated to be about 33.8%. For comparison, Russia's share in China's foreign trade is much smaller – only 3.9%.
Thirdly, China expects that Russia's turn towards the US, even if it happens, will not be long-term, since Trump came to power for only 4 years. After him, representatives of the Democratic Party may return to power with a completely different position on Russia and China. At the same time, Russian and Chinese leaders have been ruling for decades and can afford more long-term and specific planning.
“Even in times of major global changes, China-Russia relations remain stable. Any attempts by the US to drive a wedge between us are absolutely useless, “ Chinese Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Mao Ning said on February 27.
But at a less official level, there is a certain nervousness among Chinese commentators. Even if the US plan to strategically pry Russia away from China fails, the Kremlin has some options to make life difficult for Beijing, from sharing intelligence to providing access to rare earth materials that Russia has already offered to the US.
On February 25, the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, an influential think tank affiliated with China’s Ministry of National Security, published an analysis criticizing the recent rapprochement between the United States and Russia. The paper warned that peace talks without key stakeholders like Ukraine would accelerate global instability and weaken international organizations. It was an implicit criticism of Trump’s efforts to end Russia’s war against Ukraine.
In this context, the assessments of the Chinese artificial intelligence Deep Seek, which works on data from Chinese media that have passed the censorship of the authorities, also seem interesting. The Japanese publication Jiji Press asked it about the long-term prospects of Chinese-Russian cooperation.
Deep Seek acknowledged potential tensions in regions such as Central Asia and warned that future Russian leaders may not be as aligned with China as Putin is today. As the publication notes, this shows that even in controlled Chinese discourse, there is an acknowledgement that Russia’s loyalty is not guaranteed.
China's Long Game and Prospects for Ukraine
“In China, this is all perceived as something too fast for the Chinese political strategy, which is stretched out over centuries, “ Darya Goch told the publication. Beijing is not inclined to react promptly to the US actions. At the same time, its long-term strategy is aimed at reducing risks and diversifying contacts, even in the case of Russia.
One component of this strategy is the expansion of the BRICS grouping. Initially, this club of states included only the five most powerful economies outside the so-called “collective West”: China, Russia, India, Brazil and South Africa. In 2024, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the United Arab Emirates joined them. There is also China's Belt and Road Initiative, within which China is building infrastructure in many countries of the Global South, thereby tying them to itself economically.
The situation with Europe is more complicated. There is economic interest on both sides – China and the European Union are already the largest trade partners for each other. This cooperation will continue to develop. By the way, in February, on this occasion, the Minister of Foreign Affairs of China Wang Yi made a significant visit to Europe. But there they proved that they are also ready to firmly defend their interests.
British and Chinese Foreign Ministers David Lammy and Wang (Photo: Getty Images)
Chinese companies, often subsidized by the state, are flooding the European market with cheap goods, which Europe is fighting with trade tariffs. China, in turn, sees this as protectionism that runs counter to the principles of free trade.
The same applies to Ukraine. Beijing is currently Kyiv’s largest trading partner. Back in 2011, Kyiv and Beijing signed a strategic partnership agreement, but it was never filled with political content and remains purely economic. Although the Ukrainian side has begun to hint privately at a desire to strengthen contacts, this is more likely in the context of Europe’s broader cooperation with China.
“If these economic ties are strengthened, then there is a very high probability that with China's pragmatic approach of “economy first” this can be realized. Especially since China has already stated that it is ready to participate in the restoration of Ukraine, “ Goch concluded.
But there are still too many unknowns in this equation. The main intrigue is whether the US will finally ruin relations with Europe. Judging by the dynamics of the negotiations and the constant changes in mood in the Trump team, no one knows the answer to this question.
When writing the material, statements by Ukrainian, American and Chinese politicians, publications by Jiji Press, Reuters, Bloomberg, China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, and comments by Daria Goch and Dean Karalekas were used.