Photo: the dollar exchange rate is expected to be in the range of 41.4-41.8 hryvnia (Vitaliy Nosach, RBC-Ukraine) Author: Alexander Belous
Expert: Taras Lesovoy
During the first week of April, the situation on the currency market will remain within the March-February trends. Exchange rate fluctuations will be insignificant and, what is important, not threatening to the market.
Taras Lesovoy, head of the treasury department at Globus Bank, said this in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
“It can be predicted that next week the corridor of currency changes will remain within the range of 41.4-41.8 UAH/USD, that is, by the end of March (compared to February) the dollar exchange rate may increase by up to 1%,” he said.
At the same time, if we compare the exchange rate indicators with the beginning of the year, the situation here will have a relatively stable appearance, because the official rate on January 1 was 42.02 UAH/USD. Despite the changes, especially those observed at the beginning of January, relative exchange rate stability is observed as a result of the first quarter, the banker noted.
“Of course, there must be compelling circumstances for such events, one of which is the measures taken by the National Bank to overcome price increases and strengthen the hryvnia,” Lesovoy said.
He recalled that since December the National Bank has changed the key rate three times, increasing it from 13% to 15.5%. “Such steps undoubtedly affect the currency market, because during March the exchange rate was in a state of stagnation,” the banker believes.
Euro exchange rate
As for the euro, in his opinion, the exchange rate indicators in pairs with the dollar are important here.
“Despite the US customs “aggression” against EU countries (25% duty on aluminum and steel for a total of $28 billion) and countermeasures from the EU for a total of 26 billion euros, in our opinion, over the next week the difference between the rates of these two currencies will remain at the same levels: in particular, on the Ukrainian market the rate of 1 dollar will be equal to 0.9-0.95 euros. And the spread between these two currencies will be on average 3.3-4 UAH (7.8-10% of the dollar rate),” Lesovoy said.
Rate forecast
As the banker noted, the main characteristics of the currency market next week (March 24-30) will be as follows:
- The corridors of acceptable currency changes will be 41.4-42 UAH/USD and 44.5-45.5 UAH/EUR (on the interbank market) and 41.4-42 UAH/USD and 44.5-45.5 UAH/EUR (on the cash market).
- The average difference between the interbank and cash market rates will be 0 hryvnia
- Average weekly exchange rate deviations will be within 1-1.5% of the starting rate of the week.
“That is, it is quite possible that the general palette of the currency market will not undergo any radical changes: it is unlikely that any new circumstances will be added that signal a change in current trends. Currently, the currency market is not threatened by rapid and systemic changes,” the banker stated.