Photo: Russia is preparing for a new offensive in 2025, the Ukrainian Armed Forces are aware of the enemy's plans (Getty Images) Author: Maria Kucheryavets
Expert: Pavel Narozhny
Russia is probably preparing for a new offensive to strengthen its “negotiating positions.” New attacks in northeastern Ukraine, including the Sumy, Kharkov and Zaporizhia regions, are not ruled out, but they are unlikely to be large-scale, as reported in Western media in particular.
What is known about the new offensive of the Russian Federation and what forces the enemy can attract – in the RBC-Ukraine material below.
What is known about the new possible offensive of the Russian Federation
There have been recent reports that Russia is preparing for a new large-scale offensive against Ukraine. One of these was published by the Associated Press (AP).
The publication, citing Ukrainian government officials, military personnel and analysts, wrote that this offensive could begin in the coming weeks and last from six to nine months, that is, almost the entire year of 2025. They say that the Kremlin intends to launch an offensive along the 1,000-kilometer front line in order to strengthen its negotiating positions in the context of a ceasefire.
Ukrainian officials and military analysts expect that the main blows could be aimed at the north-eastern regions, in particular the Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizhia regions. This was also stated by President Volodymyr Zelensky himself.
“According to our intelligence, Russia is preparing for new attacks on the Sumy, Kharkiv and Zaporizhia regions. They are dragging out the negotiations and trying to draw the US into endless, meaningless discussions about false 'conditions' in order to gain time and then try to seize even more land,” he said during the summit in Paris on March 27.
Map: The actions of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the Belgorod and Kursk regions are preventive measures to disrupt Russia's plans to prepare operations against Ukraine (google.com/maps)
The Supreme Commander-in-Chief, together with the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, Oleksandr Syrsky, reported on the increase in attacks by Russian troops in these areas, including the activity of sabotage groups and attempts to break through the border.
Zelensky also recalled that Russia wanted to start the operation 8 months ago, but then the offensive was stopped thanks to the actions of the Ukrainian army in the Kursk direction. Now the enemy is again building up its forces.
Some Ukrainian commanders, the AP writes, are concerned that Moscow could redeploy troops “seasoned” in the battles at Kursk to other areas of eastern Ukraine.
At the same time, analysts, in particular those from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), believe that the Russians are unlikely to redeploy forces from Kursk region, in particular, to advance towards the city of Sumy. In their opinion, the Russian Federation lacks operational reserves to conduct a large-scale operation, since all available forces are involved in other areas of the front.
Analysts also claim that the aggressor does not have enough forces for operations against such large cities as Sumy, Kharkov or Zaporozhye. Since Russia has suffered heavy losses in personnel and equipment during the war. And since the winter of 2022, Russia has not demonstrated the ability to conduct complex operations with a simultaneous offensive in several directions.
How and where the enemy can attack: an expert assessment
According to military expert Pavel Narozhny, Russian troops will not be able to carry out a new “large-scale offensive” along the entire front, as the media writes.
“Our front is 2,000 km. If we take the active areas, where combat operations are actually taking place, then it is somewhere around 1,200 km. In order to advance on such a front, they need somewhere around a couple of million soldiers who will take direct part in combat operations, to attack. They simply do not have that number physically. They may have 200 thousand at most,” Narozhny said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
According to the expert, the Russian army currently has a maximum of 500-600 thousand troops concentrated in the temporarily occupied territories of Ukraine and those that “contact” Ukraine. And not all of them are participating in combat operations, but about a third of them.
“There will definitely be an offensive. But the question is in which direction it is more likely and its real scale. I think that the real scale is 50-60 thousand, which they can attack in one section of the front ,” Narozhny believes.
However, the question remains as to what section it will be. The expert does not rule out that it could be Donbass . But the occupiers are very much bogged down there near Pokrovsk.
Map: Occupiers have problems with logistics near Pokrovsk (deepstatemap)
“To say that they have some prospects – I would not say that they can somehow change the situation that has developed there. The direction of Sumy, Kharkov – here it is also very difficult to say. This is a probable direction,” Narozhny notes.
He explains that a Russian offensive could occur in these areas, but now the Ukrainian Armed Forces are doing everything to exclude it or make it very unsuccessful. In particular, the bridgehead in the Kursk region contributes to this.
“Secondly, if you look at what is happening in the Belgorod region, there is also an entry into the territory of the Russian Federation. In addition, our aviation is destroying infrastructure there. First of all, bridges, crossings, etc. This is all to make it difficult for Russian troops to advance from the territory of the Belgorod region, which borders Sumy and Kharkov,” says the interlocutor.
According to the expert, if there is a new offensive by Russian troops, it will be somewhere in May, when the weather is favorable . And before that there will be battles, but they will not be on a large scale.
” We cannot prevent this attack . That is, we cannot completely rule it out, but stopping it – yes , that is possible,” the expert adds in response to the question of whether it is possible to prevent a new possible attack by the aggressor.
Let us recall that earlier, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated that the Russian Federation is accumulating forces along the eastern border of Ukraine, which indicates the enemy’s desire to strike at the Sumy region.
Later, the head of the Center for Counteracting Disinformation under the National Security and Defense Council, Andriy Kovalenko, confirmed that the occupiers are indeed intensifying their activities in the border areas of Sumy region, but this should not be perceived as direct preparation for an attack on Sumy.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian border guards continue to record regular attempts by small assault groups from Russian territory to break through toward the settlements of Novenkoe and Zhuravka in Sumy Oblast. However, the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine assures that no breakthrough of Russian troops across the Ukrainian border has been recorded in Sumy Oblast.
For more information on what is happening at the front and the Kremlin's priorities, read the article “Did Putin Change Plans? Why Did Russia Stop Near Pokrovsk and What's Happening in Kursk Region.”
The following were used in preparing the material: publications from the Associated Press, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), statements by President Volodymyr Zelensky, DeepState maps, as well as an exclusive commentary by military expert Pavel Narozhny.
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