Donald Trump (Photo: Getty Images) Author: Roman Kot
US President Donald Trump and his team have been naming different dates for the end of Russia's war against Ukraine, ranging from 24 hours to months. As the Americans have been drawn into the negotiations, the deadlines have been pushed further and further.
RBC-Ukraine explains what timeframes the US is targeting and what factors influence progress in negotiations.
Content:
- What dates for the end of the war did Trump's team name?
- Limited progress on truce
- Russia is stalling for time
What dates for the end of the war did Trump's team name?
The current US president and his team say they want to end Russia's war against Ukraine as quickly as possible. Donald Trump's statement about peace “in 24 hours” – even before his inauguration – has already become a meme and a source of ridicule.
Subsequently, the Trump team began talking in terms of “months.” Last December, Trump's special envoy to Ukraine, Keith Kellogg, for example, gave himself 100 days to find a “solution.” On February 15, Kellogg nearly doubled the deadline.
“I live on Trump time. And if he asks for it to be done today, tomorrow he's asking why it wasn't done. So I'm publicly taking 180 days, starting the countdown, so that all parties are involved, “ Kellogg said.
Subsequently, Ktlough's role in the negotiations became secondary. New persons responsible for this direction – Secretary of State Marco Rubio, National Security Adviser Mike Waltz and Special Representative for Russia Steven Witkoff – accelerated the process.
Now, in the context of the end of the war, three dates close to each other are being mentioned.
In mid-February, according to Bloomberg, the Trump administration told European officials that it wanted to achieve a cease-fire in Ukraine by Easter , April 20. That same date was publicly proposed as a deadline for a cease-fire by Finnish President Alexander Stubb after speaking with Trump.
Earlier, The Economist and the Wall Street Journal reported that the US would like to conclude a ceasefire agreement in the first 100 days of Trump's presidency – before April 29.
In addition, Russian dictator Vladimir Putin has stated several times that he would like to see Trump at the parade in Moscow on May 9, which is also a symbolic date for the Russian Federation that can be presented to the Russian public in the context of “victory” and the end of the war.
Limited progress on truce
The United States is really making great efforts to force Russia to a ceasefire in order to show this “victory” to its public. The US became especially active in mid-March, when the Ukrainian and American teams held a meeting in Jeddah. Ukraine supported the US initiative to introduce a 30-day full ceasefire.
However, Russia raised some objections. Subsequently, telephone talks took place between Donald Trump, Vladimir Putin and Volodymyr Zelensky. As a result, the parties agreed only on a partial truce, which concerned the energy and maritime spheres. The details of the agreement were finalized on March 23-25 during technical consultations in Riyadh. The delegations of Ukraine and Russia did not communicate directly: the Americans acted as mediators.
After talks in Riyadh, Trump said the United States was seeing great progress in resolving Russia's war against Ukraine. But it could fall apart.
Russia violated the energy ceasefire already on March 27. Ukraine has raised the issue of monitoring the energy ceasefire regime with the US. Without this, progress on other aspects of the ceasefire is unlikely. And there are plenty of them.
As for the maritime truce, Russia has put forward a number of conditions under which it is supposedly willing to cease hostilities in the Black Sea, including demanding the lifting of certain sanctions. However, this process seems to have stalled for now, since the decision on sanctions depends on Europe, and there is no desire for this.
A separate issue is the ceasefire on strikes against civilian infrastructure. As Deputy Head of the Office of the President of Ukraine Ihor Zhovkva reported, Russia did not want to discuss this issue at the talks in Riyadh. According to him, the Russian delegation stated that it does not have the appropriate mandate, so strikes against Ukrainian cities continue.
The main and most difficult aspect of the ceasefire is also ahead – regarding the line of contact on the ground. Its parameters, concept and the same monitoring mechanisms remain unknown for now.
Russia is stalling for time
Even at the level of American leadership, there is an understanding that the negotiations have proven too difficult. On March 28, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio noted that it is not yet clear when a peace agreement might be concluded.
“We will work to achieve peace for as long as it takes. That doesn't mean I can guarantee you that an agreement will be reached in a week or a month. I just can't put a time frame on it because it's not up to us. It's up to the Russians and it's up to the Ukrainians. It's also up to our partners in Europe who have sanctions that I think have to be taken into account in any final agreement, “ Rubio told reporters.
The problem, however, is that Russia is not interested in a quick truce. Although its economy is suffering from sanctions, the Kremlin has enough reserves to last until at least 2025.
“I am a supporter of the idea that even talking about the peace process will take a long time. Because the only culprit of this war does not want peace. Therefore, he must be forced,” political scientist and president of the Analytical Center “Politics” Oleg Lesnoy noted in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.
Now, setting deadlines puts the US president in a weak position, as the one who is more interested in a quick peace. Among other things, it increases the risk that Trump will make concessions to Putin to speed up the process.
“I think it is unconstructive when specific deadlines are inserted. Because this gives Putin the opportunity to mock Trump once again. So he says, we will hold it on the 20th, we will reach some stage. And Putin says – no, I have 2-3 conditions, “ Lesnoy told the publication.
Therefore, in the future, it is important for Trump to understand what kind of game Russia is playing and to begin to apply not only “carrots” but also “sticks” to it.
When writing the material, statements by American, Ukrainian and Russian politicians, publications by Bloomberg, Reuters, and comments by political scientist Oleg Lesnoy were used.