Photo: Russian army prepares to occupy new settlements in the east (Getty Images) Author: Valery Savitsky
The Russian army has a tenfold advantage in manpower near the town of Liman in the Donetsk region and is preparing for a further large-scale offensive in the area.
This was reported by RBC-Ukraine with reference to a report by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW).
Footage released on March 28 and geolocated on April 1 indicates that Russian forces have recently advanced northwest from Novolyubovka (northeast of Liman) and likely captured the village. The Russians have also recently made a confirmed advance southeast from Novoye (west of Novolyubovka).
On March 31, Ukrainian military analyst Konstantin Mashovets said that Russian troops had advanced to the southern outskirts of Katerynivka (northwest of Novolyubivka).
The ISW recalled that in early January the Russian army advanced across the Zherebets River to the western (right) bank and over the past three months has slowly expanded its bridgehead on the right bank.
“Russian forces began attempting to dislodge Ukrainian forces from their positions on the eastern (left) bank of the Zherebets River in late 2023 and have only recently established a relatively stable foothold from which to launch further offensive operations,” the Institute for the Study of War noted.
The report also notes that Russian military bloggers and Mashovets have consistently attributed the initial advance to the west bank, and then the expansion of the bridgehead, to elements of the 144th and 3rd Motorized Rifle Divisions (20th Combined Arms Army of the Moscow Military District).
Tenfold advantage
ISW analysts are convinced that Russian forces appear to be using their significant manpower advantage to advance in the area. A spokesman for a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Liman direction said on March 31 that since January 2025, the Russians have been conducting almost exclusively infantry attacks in the area and have rarely used armored vehicles.
The Institute for the Study of War also saw no video footage of any significant Russian mechanized attacks in the area in 2025.
On March 31, the operational-strategic group of troops of the Armed Forces of Ukraine “Khortitsa” reported that Russian troops have intensified infantry attacks in the Liman direction and have significantly more forces in this area, primarily well-trained contract soldiers.
On March 24, the Ukrainian brigade operating in the Liman direction reported that in some areas in these regions, Russian troops have a tenfold advantage in manpower over the Defense Forces.
“Russian military command appears to be reinforcing and replacing personnel losses among the forward units of the 3rd and 144th Motorized Rifle Divisions, as these formations have been in the area since at least 2023 and appear to have never been withdrawn for rest and recovery,” ISW notes.
Two bridgeheads – into one
The report also suggests that Russian forces could use their expanded bridgehead northeast of Liman to support the capture of Borovaia or Liman in the coming months.
ISW noted that Russian forces initially focused on advancing from Ivanovka toward Kolodyazy (southwest of Ivanovka) in the general direction of Liman, but more recently appeared to have refocused their efforts on advancing northwest from Ivanovka toward Novoye and Katerinovka in the general direction of Borovaya.
One Russian military blogger noted on April 1 that Russian forces were attempting to connect their bridgehead at Novolyubovka with a smaller bridgehead on the western bank at Makeyevka (about eight kilometers away). Russian forces are likely attempting to combine these bridgeheads to create a stable salient to support attacks southeast from Borova.
Thus, the Russians may be establishing a bridgehead northeast of Liman to support future offensive operations against the southern edge of the Novosergievka-Druzhelyubovka-Novy Mir line (east and southeast of Borovaya).
“Russian military commanders may attempt to outflank Ukrainian defenses in these towns in order to force Ukrainian forces to retreat and create conditions for a Russian offensive east of Borova and deeper into its territory in the coming months,” ISW notes.
The Institute added that the Russians could also try to use the expansion of the bridgehead on the western bank of the Zherebets River near Ivanovka to support future Russian operations to capture Liman.
“The further advance of Russian troops in the direction of Borova and Liman is part of Russia's long-term efforts to displace Ukrainian forces from their positions on the eastern bank of the Oskol River and advance further into the western part of the Kharkiv region, as well as to create conditions for an offensive on the Ukrainian fortification belt in the Donetsk region from the north,” the Institute for the Study of War is convinced.
The capture of the Luhansk region and negotiations
In addition, ISW believes that Russian forces could also use their foothold northeast of Liman to seize the remaining one percent of the Luhansk region under Ukrainian control.
The Institute for the Study of War does not rule out that the Kremlin is likely to use the second seizure and retention of the Luhansk region to gain leverage during the current ceasefire negotiations and future peace talks.
“ISW continues to believe that Russian officials are deliberately delaying the ceasefire and peace talks in the hopes of gaining more territory to gain more leverage during future peace talks,” the report said.
Situation at the front
The situation on the front of the Russian-Ukrainian war remains difficult. As of the evening of April 1, 141 combat clashes had occurred, and the Russians had attacked Ukrainian Armed Forces positions in the Liman direction 13 times.
Since the beginning of the full-scale war, the Russian army has lost more than 916 thousand soldiers.
The other day, Ukrainian paratroopers spectacularly blew up trenches containing Russian invaders.
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