The Ukrainian economy will increase by 7%, and GDP per person will be $15,500 within a decade after the country joins the European Union under the scenario of rapid implementation of all necessary reforms. This was reported by the NBU press service with a link to two considered scenarios for Ukraine's European integration.
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Under the scenario of partial implementation of reforms, the economy can grow by about 4% over 10 years, and GDP per person in 2033 will exceed $10 000.
When calculating the indicators, the NBU took into account the experience of countries that have gone through the European integration path.
So, in the countries of Central and Eastern Europe that joined the EU in 2004, the levels of labor productivity and GDP per person in 2003 were on average almost 10% higher than if they had not had the opportunity to join.
The very prospect of EU membership and the corresponding conditions will stimulate the country’s economic growth even before official accession, and the integration process involves foreign trade and attracting investments, which will strengthen the country’s institutional viability, the NBU believes.
This, in turn, will help improve the efficiency of using resource potential, reduce corruption, and deepen market competition.
The National Bank adds that the Ukrainian economy is gradually recovering mainly due to the catching up of losses caused by the full-scale aggression of Russia.
However, sustainable economic growth at a high rate is possible only with a constant increase in the level of productivity.
