• 21/02/2024 16:27

Part of society will go into a “catacomb state”: expert on the economic risks of the new mobilization bill

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According to the expert, the transition of part of society during the war to the opposition in state institutions is a huge risk during the war.

The new bill to strengthen mobilization may carry economic risks for the country.

Economist and financial analyst Alexey Kushch shared his thoughts on Facebook.

In his opinion, we are talking about risk on a strategic and practical level.

“Strategic risk is the “parallelization” of society and the state. A significant part of society will go into a “catacomb state”, completely breaking the networks that connect it with state institutions. The transition of part of society during the war into opposition to state institutions is a huge risk during war,” says the expert.

According to him, the risk of antagonism between the state and a significant part of society is one of the fundamental, critical factors included in the bill.

The economist believes that in practice this can lead to the following consequences:

  • People will begin to withdraw cash en masse from cards, accounts, and deposits, which will lead to a powerful outflow of household funds from banks.

Kushch recalled that in the Russian Federation such a peak outflow of funds occurred when mobilization was announced last fall.

  • People will quit their jobs and work in menial jobs.
  • The state will not receive a significant part of the taxes from the payroll fund and the unified social contribution, that is, the pension fund will also lack money.
  • Migration, including women, will increase. Illegal border crossings in this reality risk turning into the “storming of the Berlin Wall” in the 80s.

“People will focus on personal survival, and the instinct of self-preservation is the most powerful in a person. We are not even able to imagine what all this can lead to, what kind of relapses, individual and collective. Of course, no one will think about volunteering, helping, donations and etc.,” the expert suggests.

Kushch noted that in Ukraine recently there has been an almost disdainful attitude toward the so-called “economic front.”

“This phrase has become almost an expletive, with an artificial reduction in its value and cost. But no matter how we demean the importance of the economy, without it even the format of the “Volksturm” is doomed to inevitable failure.

That is why the authors of the bill did not take into account either the significant risks or the consequences of its practical application. Unfortunately, some military leaders will continue to approach people as mathematical biological resources, forgetting that the infinity sign does not apply to demographic indicators,” he concluded.

Let us remind you that the text of the bill on mobilization and military registration has appeared. TSN.ua has collected everything that is known about changes in mobilization and what politicians are saying about it.

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