Exchange rates after Easter: the banker gave a forecast of the market situation

The head of the bank's treasury department answered whether the dollar would cross the 39 hryvnia mark.

In the first week after Easter, the situation on the foreign exchange market in Ukraine will not change significantly. And the dollar exchange rate is unlikely to fall below 39 hryvnia.

This was mentioned in the commentary of the head of the treasury department of Globus Bank, Taras Lesovoy, to the Unian publication.

Will Ukraine be able to avoid the “rate frenzy” “

According to Lesovoy, there is a high probability that in 2024 Ukraine will receive the expected and budgeted $37 billion from allied countries, which will be a significant contribution to covering huge expenses.

“Therefore, we can expect that the regulator will feel freer in terms of implementing a strategy of gradual currency liberalization, and in a general sense, the market will be able to avoid the frenzy of exchange rates due to fears for the future of the economy and the stability of the hryvnia. That is, macrofin from the United States will also have a “calming” effect, which is extremely important. in conditions of war,” the expert noted.

At the same time, the so-called “managed flexibility” regime will remain in the market, but with the ability of the regulator to implement a diverse policy regarding foreign exchange interventions, which means any exchange rate changes: growth or decrease in rates will depend on the relationship between supply and demand.

“However, it is unlikely that the regulator will completely let the market float freely,” predicts Lesovoy.

According to him, on May 6-12, the general structure of the foreign exchange market will be stable, because there is a certain system of currency changes in the market. That is why, on a weekly basis, any changes will be barely noticeable and, based on the main indicators, will resemble a static market.

Managed devaluation will continue

According to the expert, the basic step will be a gradual upward shift of currency corridors .

“We can say that the gradual, controlled devaluation observed since the beginning of the year will continue, but it will be barely noticeable. However, it is unlikely that we will see the dollar exchange rate drop below UAH 39,” the banker explained.

Key indicators of the foreign exchange market on May 6-12:

corridors of currency fluctuations: on the interbank market 39-41 UAH/dollar and 41-43 UAH/euro, on the cash market 39-41 UAH/dollar and 41 -43.5 UAH/euro;
daily exchange rate changes: on the interbank market – up to 0.2–0.3 UAH, in banks – up to 0.3–0.5 UAH, in exchange offices – up to 0.5 UAH;
average difference between interbank and cash market rates: depending on the currency up to 0.5–0.7 UAH;
weekly exchange rate deviations are expected within 1. 5-2% of the initial Monday rate.

What will the foreign exchange market be like after the holiday

After Easter, according to the expert, the market will acquire the usual stable-changeable features.

“With almost daily exchange rate fluctuations, they will not be too sensational: after periods of exchange rate growth, one should always expect certain downward movements. In general, the ratio of supply and demand will be balanced and the economic situation will be quite favorable for the market. Therefore, any currency changes can be considered natural and a sign of a “live” market,” he noted. Lesovoy.

Recall that according to the exchange rate on May 3 from the NBU, compared to the previous day, the value of the US dollar fell by 10 kopecks and amounts to 39.53 hryvnia.