The banker told what to expect in the foreign exchange market next week.
In Ukraine next week, May 6-12, exchange rateswill be quite stable and predictable.
Banker Taras Lesovoy spoke about this in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.
Rate forecast
Currency corridors on the interbank and cash markets will be almost identical and will remain at the same level: respectively 39-41 UAH/dollar and 41-43 UAH/euro and 39-41 UAH/dollar and 41-43.5 UAH/euro.
Depending on the currency, the average difference between the interbank and cash market rates will be 0.5-0.7 UAH. Average weekly deviations will be within 1.5-2% of the starting rate of the week.
As Lesovoy noted, the main factor for the market will be the ratio of supply and demand and a certain bias in their relationship: the larger the gap, the more noticeable there will be participation of the National Bank in the process of establishing equilibrium.
“Despite the fact that in the weekly projection the main market indicators look more or less static, this only emphasizes one of the rules – after a decline, a period of growth immediately begins and vice versa, that is, exchange rates can return to the initial ones. Moreover, exchange rates do not will fall into the abyss, just as they will not jump above the clouds,” the banker emphasized.
Lesovoy recalled that after the completion of the epic with macro-financial assistance from the United States, everything is dotted and dotted: this year Ukraine should receive a powerful package of international injections and, most likely, their volume will correspond to the expectations and needs specified in the state budget, which is more than $37 billion.
According to the banker, in addition to macrofin and the regulator’s strategy, the market may also be influenced during the week military circumstances, including losses to the country’s energy system.
Although this is an indirect factor, it can still be updated at any time, because it puts pressure, first of all, on the sentiments of citizens – the demand for currency in the cash market may grow, which will force the regulator to take prompt measures to establish a balance between supply and demand.
We recall that the National Bank predicted the cost of communal services in Ukraine.
