With a high probability, the rate will not go beyond the range of 40.00 – 41.25.
During the month, the hryvnia lost 61 kopecks against the US dollar. Although experts predict that July will be quite calm, but then the situation will change not in favor of the national currency.
RBC-Ukraine writes about this.
According to the official NBU exchange rate, at 9 June the hryvnia exchange rate was 40.15 UAH/USD, and by July 10 it fell to 40.76 UAH/USD. The main reasons are a decrease in foreign exchange earnings from exporters and an increase in demand for foreign currency.
According to Yuri Krokhmal, head of the treasury products sales service of Avangard Bank, in June the volatility of the dollar exchange rate in the interbank market was limited to a corridor of 40. 10 – 40.90. At the same time, the NBU satisfied all excess demand, allowing moderate fluctuations in the exchange rate.
“As a rule, the summer period is relatively calm, which also contributes to moderate volatility. The NBU's actions on the market have not changed fundamentally. Currency liberalization has not resulted to any excessive pressure on the exchange rate, which would be a problem for the regulator,” he noted.
And the head of the analytical department of the investment company Concorde Capital, Alexander Parashchiy, believes that the devaluation factor is the deficit trade balance of Ukraine, which continues worsen.
Obviously, in July we will see a similar trend – export volumes will decrease. So the demand for currency will remain quite high.
Earlier, the banker reported that exchange rate changes in the foreign exchange market would be frequent, but predictable. The main changes will take place within the new corridors, without crossing them.
