The exchange rate formation may completely depend on the events on the interbank market.
In the last week of 2024, one should not expect extraordinary events on the currency market, because there are no grounds for this. In particular, a rapid increase in the dollar exchange rate.
This was reported by banker Taras Lesovoy in a commentary to “RBK.Ukraine”.
The situation will be predictable, the expert notes. In addition, all fluctuations, as observed throughout the year, will be multidirectional. However, insignificant.
“It is quite possible that by the end of the year the official rate will not reach the mark of 42 UAH per dollar, and next week the main fluctuations on the interbank market will be in a fairly narrow corridor – 41.6-41.9 UAH per dollar,” Taras Lesovoy emphasized.
As for the situation on the cash market, the exchange rate may completely depend on events on the interbank market with the addition of the commission of financial institutions, the banker emphasized. Lesnoy believes that the season of active discounts and holidays stimulates sellers. Therefore, it is quite possible that supply and demand on the cash market will be in the same quantitative plane.
The banker predicts that the main characteristics of the currency market next week will be as follows:
- the corridors of acceptable currency changes will be 41.6-41.9 UAH per dollar on the interbank market, as well as 41.7-42.2 UAH per dollar on the cash market;
- depending on the currency, the average difference between the interbank and cash market rates will be 0.3-0.5 UAH;
- the average weekly exchange rate deviations will be within 1-1.5% of the starting rate of the week.
“The events of the last days of 2024 will not differ much from the market situation during the year. The National Bank has been and will remain the main player in the market, and its fairly effective strategy allows us to avoid unnecessary nervousness associated with the fate of the hryvnia. There are no factors yet that could disrupt the existing system of the currency market,” Lesovoy stated.
As reported, experts predict a hryvnia collapse. The forecasts of financial analysts are pessimistic – it is possible that we will soon see a significant appreciation of the dollar, which could be a shock for Ukrainians.
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