The National Bank expects that by the end of 2024, inflation will moderately accelerate to 8.6%, but already next year it will enter the target range, dropping to 5.8%, and in 2026 – to 5%. This is stated in the NBU Inflation Report for January 2024.
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The regulator noted that consumer inflation at the end of 2023 slowed to 5.1% in annual terms. This was due to a significant supply of food, easing pressure on business costs and maintaining exchange rate stability.
“In the first months of 2024, it will remain close to current levels, but will increase moderately in the second half of the year and at the end of the year will be 8 .6%. This will be due, first of all, to the exhaustion of the effects of extremely favorable weather conditions on food supply and increased business costs, in particular on wages,” the report says.
The NBU predicts that after security risks have been reduced in 2025 Inflation will slow down to 5.8% this year and return to the target of 5% in 2026. This will be facilitated by both a decrease in external inflationary pressure, in particular due to lower prices for energy resources, and a consistent monetary policy of the National Bank.
