Four members of the Monetary Policy Committee of the National Bank suggest reducing the discount rate to 11.5-12% at the end of the year. However, the majority predicts its decline at 13%. This was reported by the regulator's press service.
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In their opinion, the National Bank should act carefully, taking into account planned measures of currency liberalization, a projected acceleration of inflation in the second half of the year and a potential deterioration in the expectations of economic agents.
“In addition, risks associated with energy and the financing of significant budgetary needs remain. In such conditions, the space for reducing the discount rate is limited,” they are convinced.
At the same time, four members of the committee believe that this level of the discount rate will be too high, given the current and expected inflation dynamics.
In particular, they are confident that the regulator will find confirmation of sufficient stability of inflation expectations and other favorable trends in the coming months and will be able to accelerate the reduction of the discount rate to 11.5-12% by the end of the year.
25 April, the board of the National Bank decided to reduce the discount rate from 14.5 to 13.5%.
