Ukraine retains broad financial support from its partners, and therefore sharp fluctuations in the foreign exchange market are not expected until the end of the year. This forecast was given by the chairman of the parliamentary committee on finance, tax and customs policy, Danilo Getmantsev.
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“I can say with relative confidence that I do not expect sharp changes and fluctuations in the foreign exchange market until the end of this year,” Getmantsev noted.
Situation remains controlled
He explained that the situation on the foreign exchange market was and remains controlled thanks to the support of partners and consistent actions of the NBU.
“We have a sufficient level of international reserves,” Getmantsev noted.
The balance of payments deficit at $1.6 billion for 5 months of the current year was financed by international reserves, the volume of which is now 37% (+ $10.3 billion) more than at the beginning of the war, and is sufficient to pay for imports (covers 4. 9 months of future imports with a recommended minimum of 3 months), fulfillment of all foreign exchange obligations of the government/NBU and maintaining the exchange rate in the short term.
According to him, the government is close to completing debt restructuring on Eurobonds, which will save $11 .4 billion in debt servicing over the next 3 years, $22.75 billion until 2033.
“We have an understanding of attracting all the necessary external financing in 2024,” he added.
p>In 2024, as of today, $16 billion in international aid has already been received. By the end of this year, the budget should receive about $22 billion from the EU, the USA, the IMF and the Sitov Bank.
“After the political decision was made by the G7 cranes to provide $50 billion in financial resources from income from Russian sovereign assets, we have greater confidence in the passage of the next budget year,” Getmantsev said.
Ukraine remains in the EFF program, which is an umbrella for attracting the lion’s share of external financing until 2027.
“The NBU maintains a relatively tough monetary policy with maintaining high positive real interest rates (in July, the NBU discount rate was 13%, annual consumer inflation was 4.8%) and, accordingly, the attractiveness of hryvnia assets, which restrains the flow of hryvnia resources to the foreign exchange market. Plus, if necessary, the regulator may return to strengthening currency restrictions to reduce pressure on the hryvnia,” Getmantsev noted.
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