• 13/06/2024 16:07

A new financial and economic crisis is predicted for Ukraine: bankers named three peak months

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The most difficult period, according to Ukrainian banks, awaits the country in the next six months.

About this information was reported by Zn.ua, URA-Inform reports.  

The Center for Exchange Technologies bases its forecasts on changes in the bank deposit market. Since the beginning of the year, the level of deposit rates has decreased, the largest reduction occurred in the shortest 3-month deposits. The interest rate decreased from 14.25% to 13.5% per annum.  The rate on annual deposits also decreased, from 14.22 to 13.7%, for deposits for 6 months, the changes are the smallest: from 14.84 to 14.35%.

“It seems like there is little difference. But it makes it clear how banks see their interest rate policy for the year ahead. The higher they keep interest rates for the period, the more dangerous it seems to them,” — the expert explained.

He noted that if you rely on banking logic — the safest period, taking into account the interest rate policy of banks, is the next three months, approximately until July, because the rates here are the lowest.

The most difficult period, according to bankers, is the next six months with the peak of the crisis in August-September-October. The stakes here are the highest. In general, this forecast coincides well with both military and political expectations.

In their opinion, this is a good and relatively reliable indicator. An investor in most cases should go for the high interest rate, so to speak. This is currently a 6 month deposit. And then it will be possible to review the terms of the investment.

Bankers do not rule out that the banks themselves will revise them if, for example, hostilities escalate, or it is not possible to restore the energy system before the start of the heating season, or there are problems with providing Ukraine Western support will not be resolved.

“Unfortunately, in our time, “planning even for a year is a luxury that no one can afford,” said Maxim Orishchak, an analyst at the Center for Exchange Technologies.

Recall that it was previously reported whether Ukraine will have enough money for pensions and subsidies in 2024: Shmygal’s answer.

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