False consensus is a cognitive error that leads people to believe that others share their views and beliefs. In politics, this phenomenon is of particular importance, since a misconception about voters' attitudes towards certain policies can significantly distort political decisions and lead to political errors. Political elites who misjudge public opinion can make decisions that do not correspond to the real interests of voters, which in turn harms democratic processes.
As IZ reports with reference to Psychology Today, one of the latest studies conducted in 2024 showed that political elites, including journalists, lobbyists and political consultants, are often very wrong in their assessments of public opinion. The researchers compared the opinions of 3,743 political figures with the opinions of voters based on public opinion polls. Politicians significantly exaggerated the popularity of their initiatives and significantly underestimated support for policies that they did not support. These discrepancies were found to be within 20-25%, which indicates a serious error in the estimates.
These errors arise because politicians often take their own opinions for granted. Their assessments of public opinion reflect more their personal views than the real sentiments of the population. This phenomenon is not necessarily related to party affiliation; even impartial politicians often show themselves prone to this cognitive bias. As a result, their decisions may focus on initiatives that do not actually have as much support among citizens as political leaders assume.
To correct the situation, it is necessary to actively collect and analyze public opinion data using surveys and other methods of information collection. This will allow politicians to better navigate the real needs of voters and make more balanced and informed decisions. In addition, it is important to create open platforms for discussion where people from different social groups can exchange ideas and better understand each other. This will help create a more inclusive political environment that reflects the interests of the entire society.
Recall that we previously wrote about social anxiety and its impact on the ability to correctly read other people's emotions.
