• 12/04/2024 06:51

From “Bayraktars” to F-16. How will the allies be able to change the course of the war in Ukraine?

Ukraine's ability to effectively fight against Russia lies ahead of the approaching advance . The strength of its defense forces will continue to beat enemies in the sky, on land and in water, and victory is unattainable without increasing supplies and expanding the nomenclature.

For more details about the symbols of the formation that will change the course of the war, see the material RBC-Ukraine .

At the PIDGOTOTO MATERIALIA VIKORISTEVALY: PUBLIKATSIA CNN, Forbes, The Telegraph, The Economist, Business Insider, the Center for the Analiza Polikiko (Cepa), declare the Ukrainian Oyad Office Osib. P>


  • Drone War. How drones became high-precision armor in Ukraine
  • Technological advance. How the advancing artillery ensured success in the 2022nd generation
  • Armored fist. Why haven’t the incoming tanks become “game changers” yet
  • Long-range missiles are in action. Results 2023 year and plans for Maybutn
  • Curving the sky. What has been achieved from the approaching PPO and why the F-16 is still needed

For two years, Ukraine has taken away a lot of incoming weapons, in order to protect the new breakthrough from the need for long-range missiles, as German Taurus and American ATACMS (at 300 km). In addition, as it became clear from the chest, the Ukrainian side is asking the United States for the advanced THAAD missile defense system.

Photo: zbroya, what Ukraine is asking for (infographics from RBC-Ukraine)

According to Reuters, Ukraine also requested additional Abrams tanks, 155-mm artillery, F-16 and F-18 aircraft from the American ones warehouses.

Photo: Ukraine is locked in the selection of Vinishchuvach F-16 and F-18 (infographics from RBC-Ukraine)

Problems such as the 60 billion dollar aid package and the supply of expensive food items have been resolved. However, European F-16s will survive this summer.

Drone War. How drones became high-precision armor in Ukraine

The Turkish-made Bayraktar strike drone became a vital piece of information in the first month of a large-scale war. This drone has been in the sky for over 12 years and has been hit by anti-tank missiles and air bombs. In the spring of 2022, videos of attacks on Russian columns were popular, and songs were dedicated to the “war bird.”

“TB2’s viral videos (again called Bayraktar TB2 – ed.) were the miraculous butt of the current war in the TikTok era,” Aaron Stein, a senior research scientist at the Foreign Policy Research Institute (FPRI), wrote for the Atlantic Council. < /em>

In his words, these drones “were not a charming beauty, but they were going to be good.” Among the few wines, there was insufficient fluidity and flow to the PPO properties. According to data from OSINT investigators, during the First River the Russians were able to secure nearly 20 units. However, the large number of expenses is outweighed by the relatively low performance of the UAV.

The Russians spread fakes all over the world about the inability of the Bayraktars to sell, they were afraid of the Turechchins, and the deliveries were ruined. In their context, there are no possible influences, especially the role of the sunken cruiser “Moscow” on the island of Snakes and the sunken cruiser. It’s important that they themselves pulled out the PPO while the Neptune missiles raced to the flagship of the Black Sea Fleet.

In two years, the stench may not be victorious at the front. Hire as a fighting unit. As stated by military intelligence, all this is because the Russian Federation has significantly strengthened its PPO. It is important for the Bayratari to fly reconnaissance missions, but this does not mean that Ukraine will be able to avoid them. However, in 2025 it is planned to launch a plant that will produce 120 units per river.

On the battlefield in Ukraine, there has been a revolution in the history of unmanned aircraft as armored vehicles. According to estimates by the British Royal Survey Institute (RUSI), the past ZSU spent close to 10,000 drones per month, with which the demand at the front could be 20 times greater.

With this war, a massive proliferation of mortar drones begins. As a rule, these are quadcopters that can shoot between 60 and 80 calibers with an accuracy of up to a meter. There was information about the supply of 800 Revolver 860 mortar drones (Taiwan), capable of carrying up to eight weapons at a range of up to 20 km. In addition, the Defense Forces are using even more powerful UAVs of the Ukrainian production. How much is unknown, but in the minds of the shortage of shells, stench can become an alternative to artillery.

Another type is barrage ammunition. These are small drones with an integrated warhead. Russia also stagnates, for example, “Lancets”, which hit Ukrainian howitzers and armored vehicles. The USA has a significantly effective Switchblade 600 that can carry the warhead of the Javelin missile, but they are still not supplied in series to Ukraine. Its value can be 220,000 dollars, which is the same value as the Russian infantry fighting vehicle, and it’s not up to you to price it out as much as that’s the goal. Effectively use Polish Warmate. In the video below, such a drone is used by the enemy Tor air defense system.

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One of the most exciting new products is Ukrainian unmanned kamikaze boats. Their demand has ceased, and Ukraine has enough long-range missiles to neutralize the Russian Black Sea Fleet. They have a lot of advantages and a few airborne drones, and even if there is a large stagnation of low-powered boats, the chances of success are high. As a result, today they attacked the Crimean town, losing a few ships, which prompted Russia to frequently withdraw the fleet from Crimea. Last year, Magura V5 boats sank the great landing ship “Cesar Kunikov”.

The kamikaze drones are actively stagnating. The first attacks on Russian oil depots were, most likely, carried out by Chinese Mugin-5 PRO drones, re-equipped for attacks with vibukh charges. For a long time, the important kamikaze remained the only promising battle for a distance of over 300 km. This is how we faced attacks by TU-141 Strizh jet drones on military airfields. It is already known that Ukraine has started serial production of such drones as the “Beaver” (analogous to the Iranian “shahed”), which, at first glance, attacked Moscow, “Rubaka” and others. As stated by Deputy Prime Minister Mikhailo Fedorov, by 2024 the military will be removing thousands of UAVs with a range of 300 to 1000 km.

However, FPV drones are the most common ones on the front line. These are small quadcopters that are used for dropping ammunition or for providing an integrated warhead. Today, its role is significant, and the production of a million units has been announced for 2024. Naturally, drones of all types interfere with the situation on the battlefield, otherwise they cannot ensure the greatest advantage.

“What won't happen. Why? Because in the middle of nowhere, as long as people are not in sight, in order to set up an ensign at the enemy's trench, you can launch a million drones over it, and you won't take anyone back,” said the head of the Main Intelligence Directorate. Kirilo Budanov in a recent interview with Liberation.

Technological advance. How attacking artillery ensured success in 2022

The beginning of the invasion of Ukraine was destroyed by massive artillery bombardment. The Russian arsenal includes MSTA self-propelled howitzers, towed M1955, Gradi, important flamethrower systems and Pioni. Ukraine could have experienced the same Radian armor, but the reserves were significantly smaller than those of the Russian Federation. The situation in Donbass was developing gloomily, so they asked for more support from their former allies.

Mounted artillery and missile launchers began to be found in the dozens, including M777s from the USA, Australia and Canada, Polish Krab self-propelled howitzers and French CAESARs. The partners agreed to supply long-range rocket systems HIMARS, M270 and MARSII, which can fire GPS-guided missiles at a distance of 80 km. After they began to feel the stench of warehouses, supply lines, command centers and bridges across the Dnieper, the Ukrainian military units felt that the pressure on them had weakened.

“Now we have “Chimery” ( HIMARS, – ed.), we have no material and technical security,” said the commander on the Kherson front in 2022 with the positive word “Crazy” from The Telegraph.

The forecasts of recent analysts came true. Supplies allowed Ukraine to bridge the gap with the Russian war and to conquer the territories of the Kharkiv region, and before the leaves fall, Kherson is the only burying of the regional center in 2022.

As Professor Commando wrote -Staff College of the Israeli Defense Army Yagil Henkin for graduate studies US Marine Corps University, HIMARS has two key effects. First of all, the attacks forced the Russians to move their warehouses to the ground, thereby changing the fire near the front. In another way, attacks on bridges undermined Russia's logistical capabilities.

However, at the end of the war, it became clear that the Russian Federation had created not just a physical, but also a strong electronic defense. As the commander of the 59th motorized rifle brigade, Pavlo Petrichenko, told CNN, the approaching armor was particularly harmful to radio-electronic warfare systems. Zokrema, HIMARS and Excalibur 155 projectiles are guided by GPS, and the stagnation of the electronic components reduced their accuracy, actually reducing the advantages of a reasonable armor. The Russians are actively campaigning against the jamming and spoofing of GPS signals, and Pentagon Speaker Charlie Dietz has learned that the Russians have made HIMARS ineffective. Having said that, the United States is waiting to stop the spill.

For all that, HIMARS have not yet said their last word in the Russian-Ukrainian war. Sichna has learned that the partners transferred light small-diameter GLSDB bombs to Ukraine, which had not yet been used in conflicts. And in the meantime, videos of military “Grads”, drone launch stations, and so on are regularly appearing again. Within days, apparently, two HIMARS missiles hit a test site in the Volnovakha area, as a result of which more than 60 invaders could have died.

Self-propelled artillery like the French Caesar, which has a technological advantage, also helps change the course of the war. Zokrema, it became an indispensable element in counter-battery combat (against enemy artillery). With the rise of Caesar, the rules of the game changed, the stinks of the building were shot at 40 km, and with the victory of Excalibur – at all 50 km. Already in one of the first battles, two tanks, an infantry fighting vehicle and an armored personnel carrier were burned together with their crews. The Russian “Lancets” fly on the Caesar, but the rate of fire and mobility allow the howitzers to deliver unique hits.

No less useful are the Swedish Archer self-propelled guns, which are called sniper rifles in the artillery world. According to the words of US Army Reserve Colonel Michael Jacobson, the stench is richly detailed, quick-firing, precise and deadly, not Russian. They are better able to cope with counter-battery fire, as well as modular parts that can be removed if damaged and replaced with new ones, which will protect them in battle. Ale and there are problems here. For incoming artillery, the required 155-mm caliber shells, and locking packages from the United States and other partners, puts Ukraine in an unsafe position, because with all its technological backwardness, the Russian Federation is leaking for the rakhunok of the kilkisna weapon in the trunks.

Armored fist. Why haven’t the incoming tanks become “game changers” yet

At the beginning of 2023, the current chief commander of the ZSU, Valery Zaluzhny, said that he would need 300 tanks to push the Russians back to the border before February 24, 2022. There was talk about the tanks, and there was particular concern about the incoming images. Armored vehicles can change the situation on any front, right in front of the planned attack. Without it, any attempt will definitely be doomed to failure and colossal expenses.

Before the 2023 counter-offensive, Ukraine took away Challenger 2, Leopard 1, Leopard 2 tanks, as well as support combat vehicles, such as Bradley and Marder. The American Abrams lasted until the end of the spring. The recent armored vehicles did not contribute much to ending the war. Hire yet.

Western media write about the problems that the Ukrainian army is facing. For example, about those tanks that arrived without armor, and about those that don’t have spare parts for repairs. According to Forbes, at least 12 Leopard 2 tanks were wasted, and some were damaged.

The summer counter-offensive began with 78 Leopard 2 tanks in various versions. Leopard 2A4 is equipped with the 33rd mechanized brigade on the day, Strv 122 – 21 mechanized brigade on the rally, 47 mechanized brigade transferred to the rally, – Leopard 2A6. And all three brigades fired tanks through Russian mines, drones, artillery and missiles. As a result, at least seven Leopard 2A4s were written off, although a Leopard 2A6 and one Strv 122 burned out.

But in fact, potentially dozens of tanks were taken out of order for another reason. As Christian Freuding, the head of the situational center of the Ministry of Defense of Germany, declared, before sending for repairs to Lithuania and Poland, the Ukrainian military will remove parts in order to cause less damage to the “leopard” on the site i. This means that in the centers it is necessary not only to eliminate damage, but also to replace everyday elements. This repair may take several months.

Advocate Director of the Arroyo Center (USA) Gian Gentile appreciates that Ukraine will take most of the captured tanks for the upcoming offensive in 2024, writes Business Insider.

“Tanks of the approaching type are clearly superior to the most beautiful Russian tanks. They have better armor for the current systems of active defense, fire control, optics and ammunition,” said Vin.

Abrams has confirmed the destruction of the tanks of the Radian army even before the hour of the war at the Persian Butt. However, the rules of the game in Ukraine have not yet changed. According to Gentile, the upcoming offensive can easily be seen as long as the defense forces do not kill the enemy. Let's pay for everything that we need to focus on at least until the end of winter. And above this, as if I had a headache, we are tied to Abrams. On the right, it’s bad to cope with the pond, the filters require constant cleaning, if you don’t carry it out for 12 years, you may need to replace the engine. The closest service center is also located in Poland.

Long-range missiles in the country. Results 2023 year and plans for Maybutn

In 2023, the Ukrainian arsenal of long-range armor was replenished with missiles. I first heard about the British Storm Shadow and the French analogues SCALP with a range of over 250 km. The Krilat missile has a 450 kg warhead, an inertial navigation system, GPS, infrared guidance and automatic target recognition based on the captured image. Launched after further training for this Su-24.

Ukrainian forces successfully deployed SCALP/Storm Shadow to attack the Chongarsky Bridge, the headquarters of the 58th Army in occupied Berdyansk, warehouses near Crimea and the Kherson region. In the spring, a number of missiles hit the ship repair plant in Sevastopol, as a result of which the Minsk airborne landing ship was destroyed and the Rostov-on-Don underwater ship was seriously damaged. And as part of Operation Crab Pasture, the stench hit the headquarters of the Black Sea Fleet of the Russian Federation. Near leaf fall, the shipyard near Kerch and the small missile ship “Askold” were hit, and at the bottom – the airborne landing complex “Novocherkassk” near the port of Feodosia.

It appears that SCALP/Storm Shadow missiles will continue to play an important role in 2024. The mission of Ukraine lies in the precise attack of military targets in order to maintain the enemy's strength, low warehouses, control centers and special warehouses. The greatest goal is to lose the Crimean place – vitally important for the Russian occupation of Crimea, parts of the Kherson and Zaporizhzka regions.

The main colonies and sections are the most important. A strong bomb will not destroy the entire area, and short spills allow you to quickly change the damage to the area. Therefore, Ukraine needs missiles to carry important warheads, and in such quantity as to overwhelm the Russian missile defense system and make it impossible to repair the bridge. All this can be ensured by German Taurus aircraft missiles, according to the statistics of the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA).

Taurus carries a warhead for the destruction of bunkers and infrastructure, low-volume technologies that can bypass software and other electronic defense technologies. The most important thing is that Germany has about 600 such missiles, the range of which exceeds 500 km. But German Chancellor Olaf Scholz does not worry yet about how the smell can change the situation in the war.

“Ukraine needs Taurus, and it also needs it. Storm Shadow is not an equivalent replacement. This proposal is unpleasant,” said the head of the Bundestag Defense Committee, Marie-Agnes Strack-Zimmermann.

As BILD writes, the ruling coalition was preparing a secret package until a large quantity of ammunition, transport equipment and armored systems were released. The project does not directly contain information about Taurus missiles, but there is no clue about long-range action, which is necessary so that “Ukraine could launch targeted attacks on strategically important targets far behind the Russian aggressor.” Last year, the Bundestag voted for the recommendation to transfer the missiles. The Minister of Foreign Affairs of Ukraine Dmytro Kuleba said that the Taurus is not intended for attacks on Russian territory, but only for reducing the military infrastructure near the front.

At the same time, the Defense Forces were stagnant with ATACMS. Missiles from a range of up to 150 km attacked military airfields near Berdyansk and Lugansk. According to OSINT analysts, as a result of the strike, 9 helicopters were destroyed, and another 15 were damaged. After this, the enemy redeployed the aircraft to Taganrog. In addition, for a month, Russian propaganda has been spreading super clear reports about the overrun of ATACMS, and on the 30th of June – about the attack on the PPO complexes on the Tarkhankut mission near Krim. The ASTRA report reported the attack of the S-300, but the official strike was not confirmed by either the Ukrainian or Russian side.

The Office of the President assured that the transfer of ATACMS will achieve two key objectives: it will become a signal to everyone that Russia is about to lose, and it will accelerate the depletion of energy resources. The ZSU believes that strikes with such missiles will disrupt the logistics of the Russian Federation.

“The appearance of such a powerful force as ATACMS, and the equivalent of a “game changer”, such as before, for example, HIMARS, then became Patriot,” said the riverman of the Skhidnogo grouped army, Illya Yvlash.

Yak i Be that as it may, ATACMS will not become the “wunderwaffe” itself, but I will be able to provide security for Ukraine. Ale buildings will help knock out the occupiers. The number of transmitted missiles has a lot to do with it. For the data of the incoming serpents, the American partners provided nearly two dozen. And as it became clear, Washington is working on the supply of a longer-range variant – 300 km.

Curving the sky. What has been achieved from the advanced air defense force and why the F-16 is still needed

At the time of the large-scale invasion of the Ukrainian air force on the ground, it was represented by 29 S-300P divisions, 10 Buk divisions, as well as tens of three RK S-125 and “Tor” . The actions of the anti-aircraft gunners in the first month were clear, so it was possible not only to preserve the complexes, but also to get involved in the battle for Kiev. In the spring of 2022, fate managed to shoot down most of the winged missiles, dozens of helicopters and aircraft.

Our partners focused on the transfer of software from the Radyansky production plant – S-300, “Osa”, S-125 and others. However, massive attacks on the energy industry progressed to the transfer of entry systems. Even before the end of 2022, both NASAMS and IRIS-T and “veterans” of the MIM-23 Hawk appeared in Ukraine.

Over the first five months, NASAMS robots shot down over 100 missiles and drones. They say that the complex is easy to manage and effective. The air defense system has proven itself well and is highly valued, and recently it became known that Norway will transfer another number of launchers and control centers.

Ukraine has become the world's first operator of the German IRIS-T SLM system. The complex entered the battlefield in 2022 and showed outstanding results within a short period of time. As the commander of the Air Force Mikola Oleshchuk said, out of 51 missiles fired, all of them reached their targets. As of 2024, Ukraine received three IRIS-T SLM systems and two IRIS-T SLS launchers. It is planned to transfer five more IRIS-T SLM systems and 22 IRIS-T SLS launchers.

The culmination of the strengthening of software was the opening of the throat of the American Patriot system. This immediately indicated the effectiveness of Russian attacks. Since the Patriot arrived in Ukraine, “analogue” ballistic missiles “Kinjal” and “Iskander” have been successfully firing over Kiev.

It is clear that this type of complex has taken its place from the poor Russian Su-34, Su-35 and the pair of Mi-8 helicopters over the Bryansk region. And in the near future, three Su-34s, which can also be attributed to the Patriot, were lost in just one day. The version from the storage of its missiles is seen as a possible scenario for a strike on the A-50 long-range reconnaissance aircraft, which would become the costliest loss after the cruiser “Moscow”. Finally, it was reported that three Patriot batteries and several additional launchers had been supplied. At the bitter end of 2024, President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced the arrival of two more systems, such as “to beat everything.”

Even more damage to the shield can be achieved by incoming combat aircraft. Ukraine is investing in low-cost F-16s, which will complement the PPO, “catching up” Russian missiles, and will also be involved in front-line operations. Having shown the truth to 2023, an attack on a fortified position without an advantage in the wind sets it up for failure. Suddenly, massive airstrikes on the Defense Forces in Avdiivtsi literally destroyed the positions and forced the Ukrainian troops to withdraw from the place.

Our partners sing that the F-16's food supply is running behind schedule. The Netherlands is ready to transfer at least 24 units in 2024. It looks like the first sunset clouds will appear in the Ukrainian sky before summer. According to CNN, at that time the first group of pilots was ready to complete their preparations. Riverman of the Military Forces Yuriy Ignat says that the aircraft will be transferred with no new modifications, and they will not be available for 40, 60 or 120 years.

“No one knows for sure if there will be an F-1 in Ukraine 6 “We are clearly the brightest,” adding Vin.

< p>Obviously, the F-16 will not bring victory to Mittev, but they can change the course of the war. The buildings will provide for those who need the most – superiority in the sky in the occupied territories. Since 8-9 aircraft fly in there at a time, dropping ceramic bombs and missiles, then obviously the F-16 will no longer be able to operate freely, as if at once.

“Therefore, superiority in the world is the key to success on the ground,” said Ignat.

The main goal is to expand the capabilities of the fight against enemy aircraft, UAVs and missiles.

“The F-16 flight may further expand the capabilities of the aviation sector MKI VOYSK , fire support. This is due to the reduction of the fire capacity of the Armed Forces with fire,” said the Ukrainian pilot from the positive “Moonfish”, who is undergoing training on the F-16.

Terminovi Read important information about the war between Russia and Ukraine on the RBC-Ukraine Telegram channel.

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