Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin (Photo: Getty Images) Author: Yulia Akimova
The US literally pulled Russia out of Western isolation, where they themselves sent Moscow after its invasion of Ukraine. Donald Trump's arrival in the White House changed the vector of relations between Washington and Moscow, setting a course for a clear thaw. How the Kremlin is looking for an approach to Trump and whether this will affect the course of the war – in the material of RBC-Ukraine journalist Yulia Akimova.
Content
- Resetting relations with Russia
- Negotiation track
- Two Russian triggers
For three years, Putin's propaganda told of a war between the West – mainly the United States – and Russia at the hands of Ukrainians. With the arrival of Donald Trump in the White House, the Russians' rhetoric changed dramatically. After which they were again seated at the same table with the big players, and Putin got a chance to break out of the isolation of the Western world.
Since the beginning of the term of US President Donald Trump, Ukrainian-American relations have not been going through the best of times. The team of the new American leader immediately demonstrated the notorious “transactional approach”, based on the principle of “you – to me, I – to you”, and the issues of “justice”, “protection of democratic values” and the like are of much less interest to it. At least for the current US president, the status of Ukraine as a victim of unprecedented in scale and unprovoked external aggression is definitely not a “trump card” of Kyiv.
Ukrainian diplomats have just recently endured a crisis after an unsuccessful meeting in the Oval Office, and judging by the results of the talks on March 11, they are only just beginning to feel out an approach to today's Washington. At the same time, the bilateral Russian-American track is going quite well. Trump says little about Russia in public, and criticizes it even less. It seems that the Kremlin has found a common language with the White House and clearly has something to offer.
Resetting relations with Russia
“There is a broader strategy to Trump's approach to this war – a recognition that the US needs to reset its relationship with Russia. Outreach to allies and adversaries alike is important in diplomacy.”
These words of the US Special Representative for Ukraine and Russia Keith Kellogg perfectly reflect what is happening today between the Russian Federation and the United States. Even before the inauguration, Donald Trump surprised with his statements that the “Ukrainian problem” should be solved with Russia, and Moscow invaded because of Ukraine's desire to join NATO.
During his first month and a half in office, Trump has made various statements about Ukraine almost every day, and it is not always possible to find any logic in them. First, he calls President Volodymyr Zelensky a dictator, and then he is “surprised” that he even said that word. He says that the negotiation process with Ukraine is going well, and then he accuses Kyiv of being to blame for the invasion. The amount of aid that America has provided to Ukraine over the three years of war has “grown” over and over again – from $100 billion to $350 billion, which the Ukrainians must pay back to the last cent. Things got even worse after the scandalous meeting between Zelensky and Trump in the Oval Office on February 28.
Volodymyr Zelensky and Donald Trump (Photo: Getty Images)
At the same time, if we consider Trump's rhetoric regarding Russia and Vladimir Putin, his position here is much softer, but also not without its contradictions. Just a month ago, Trump said that Ukraine was ready for peace, and Putin was destroying Russia. At the same time, the American president said that Moscow wants peace – these are the “signals” Trump periodically receives from Moscow, according to him. Sometimes he threatens Moscow with sanctions, and sometimes Western publications write that the White House is thinking about softening them.
Putin, on the other hand, is hardly criticized by his American counterpart, unlike Zelensky. Even when Trump was asked a direct question about how it could be claimed that Russia wants peace if Putin is bombing Kyiv, the US president shrugged and said that in his (Putin's, – ed.) place “anyone would have done the same”. But it is hardly worth paying such attention to the criticality and contradictory nature of Trump's statements and actively reflecting on each of them, says Russian opposition political scientist Ivan Preobrazhensky.
“It is clear that his statements are a cascade of mutual contradictions, precisely to force his negotiating partners to react somehow. That is, he himself does nothing, he only makes statements. But his partners do something, and then he begins to react to it somehow. That is, he forces everyone he deals with to react to absolutely empty words and verbal blackmail with actions,” Preobrazheniy said in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
At the same time, the fact that Trump actively criticizes Ukraine and much less Russia, suggests that the negotiations that the American side is conducting with the Russian side are having some success. And their goal is what Keith Kellogg is talking about – to reset relations between the US and Russia, or at least to find common ground.
Negotiation track
Since January 20, at least two meetings have been held between US and Russian representatives to “establish bilateral relations.” The first was held on February 18 in Riyadh, the second on February 27 in Istanbul, the day before Zelensky arrived in Washington. Shortly before that, on February 12, Trump said he had spoken with Putin on the phone. They allegedly discussed ways to peacefully resolve the war and resume relations between the countries. Three days later, on February 15, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov spoke on the phone.
Officially, there are no special details about what is discussed at these meetings and in telephone conversations, of course. Just as there is no certainty whether they directly talk about Ukraine. However, experts believe that in reality, the war in Ukraine is mentioned indirectly at these Russian-American “bilateral meetings.” More emphasis is currently being placed on what concerns diplomatic relations and their restoration, says Vladislav Faraponov, head of the “Institute of American Studies.”
Negotiations between Russia and the United States (photo: Getty Images)
“I understood from Rubio's interview that they never talked about peace with the Russian Federation. That is, they didn't talk about peace even during two rounds of negotiations. It seemed that they were really talking about embassies and so on. He then said – we won't know Russia's position if we don't try. That is, it turns out that by that time they still hadn't tried,” the expert notes in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.
If you look at what Trump says publicly about Russia, you won't find any specifics here either, which they may have already managed to agree on at the meetings. The rhetoric that “Moscow wants peace” remains one way or another, but there are no details about what kind of peace it is, what its limits will be, and whether Putin is ready to give the order for a ceasefire. At the same time, Trump demands specific statements from Zelensky.
The reason why this is happening may be that the Russians are going to meet the Americans with already formulated and agreed upon proposals. And Putin personally gives permission for what to agree on – he has assigned this task exclusively to himself. Once the subject itself has been agreed upon, the Russians only have to settle the details, and this is much easier to do. In addition, we are not talking about any broad and difficult issues. So far, only things that are easy to agree on are being discussed.
“That's why there can't be any bad negotiations yet. If something is left unspoken, there won't be a meeting, because why would the Americans go to a meeting with people who don't decide anything, knowing that Vladimir Putin hasn't given the go-ahead. It's a pretty picture. And it's not a fact that Trump understands 100% why this is happening. It's not a fact that he realizes that everything is going so smoothly with Russia, because nothing serious is being done, just like on his part. Technical issues are being resolved for now,” says Preobrazhensky.
The subject of preliminary negotiations can be quite different, but here the presence at the meetings of Kirill Dmitriev, a Russian investor and head of the Direct Investment Fund, is very telling. He speaks to the Americans in the same language as Trump – the language of business deals.
One of the meetings between Trump and Putin during the previous term of the American president (photo: Getty Images)
For example, one of the ideas under discussion, which Dmitriev allegedly expressed at a meeting with US representatives, concerns the frozen assets of the Russian Federation. In the public space, Russia, as usual, is threatening Europe, which is trying to find a way to give this money to restore Ukraine. But on the internal tracks, the idea of giving two-thirds of these funds to Ukraine and one-third to Russia for the restoration of the territories it occupied may be discussed.
This approach, rational from the Americans' point of view, can be interpreted by Washington as those very “concessions” that Moscow is ready to make. This means that it is more adequate and practical than the same Kyiv, which demands something vague and global, like security guarantees.
One of the proposals that Russians can make to the US concerns the work of American business in Russia. It still exists in Russian cities, and under current Russian legislation, Americans will no longer be able to sell or withdraw assets, so Moscow offers them some special conditions for doing business in Russia.
And finally, the rare earth metals agreement. Washington offered Kyiv frankly enslaving conditions, the US gave Zelensky almost an hour to sign the agreement. While time was passing, Kyiv was thinking about counterarguments, Zelensky gave press conferences about how there should be no debts in the agreement, Putin unexpectedly came forward with his proposal.
“We could think about working together with American companies in this area. For example, in the Krasnoyarsk region, back in Soviet times, there were plans to build a new hydroelectric power station and create additional aluminum production facilities,” the Russian dictator said.
During the same period, Zelensky arrives in Washington and, speaking about the agreement on rare earth metals, emphasizes security guarantees for Ukraine.
In the eyes of Ukrainians, this demand is not just fair – it is logical, if we recall at least the same Budapest Memorandum and the US promise to protect Ukraine's sovereignty. Moreover, Zelensky speaks on behalf of the country that was attacked, which means security guarantees from an ally are a normal and rational request. But not according to the logic that Trump is guided by.
The deal he offered Ukraine looks similar to the one he made with Syria. There were oil fields there that US troops took control of. And when the Wagner PMC decided to seize these places, the Americans “cleaned them up”. Although formally they weren't even there.
According to Trump's logic, he does not have to spell out security guarantees; he supposedly guarantees them anyway, if we are talking about his money and investments. This can hardly be called a legally correct deal, but the American president did not intend to enter into a long negotiating process, discussing all the subtleties and details. He, in essence, proposed to “shake hands.”
Trump and Zelensky (photo: president.gov.ua)
“This is what is called “by concepts”. (…) And what guarantees long-term relations? And only mining and processing companies, American factories that were located on the territory of Ukraine could guarantee long-term relations. So in his world, in his logic, Trump has long-term cooperation in mind, and in response to this he gets “let's sign a contract with you,” Preobrazhensky notes.
That's why Trump claims he understands Putin because the Russians speak a language he understands when they meet with his delegates. Meanwhile, Ukraine uses moral language, which is not only useless. It is often harmful, because it irritates Washington – instead of an offer of benefit, it gets “pity-mongering.”
In this entire process, Russia is openly playing on the contrast. Moreover, when there is a semblance of smoothness in the negotiation process, even if we are talking about “negotiations about negotiations”, it becomes easier for the Russians to manipulate the demands regarding Ukraine.
At first, they create the impression that Russia is capable of negotiating, because so far everything is going smoothly in this process. Then, in parallel and softly, they talk about their demands. In the eyes of the Americans, this again looks rational and, as strange as it may sound, fair. But sooner or later, the negotiations will come to their main issue – a truce. And here America may expect surprises.
Two Russian triggers
So far, the US, apparently, has no global problems with Russia, and they are using this latest “thaw” as best they can. In the short term, to ask Putin to act as a “mediator” in negotiations between Washington and Tehran, and in the long term, to set Moscow against Beijing.
“Of course, it is advantageous for America to set Russia and China, Russia and Iran at odds. At the current stage, it is really advantageous for any American president that Russia cooperates less with China, with Iran, and that their cooperation does not come close to forming some kind of military alliance. It is more difficult with China, but we can talk about this with Iran. That is why they are trying to use Putin and Russia as quickly as possible and in big roles,” notes Farapov.
In fact, the negotiations have not yet started, but Russia is already receiving certain benefits, some of which it has not even put much effort into. For example, America's refusal to supply Ukraine with weapons or share intelligence information. Putin has a rough idea of what America might want now and is in no hurry to enter the negotiation process personally, unlike Zelensky. He is waiting and “pulling” from Washington what is beneficial to him, agreeing to what is beneficial to the Americans.
Steve Witkoff, Marco Rubio and Michael Waltz in talks with Russia (Photo: Getty Images)
For the Americans themselves, it is easier to put pressure on Ukraine for now – it seems to them an easier way to end the war than to spend a long time and painstakingly searching for levers of pressure on Moscow, notes Uriel Epstein, executive director of the American non-profit organization Renew Democracy Initiative.
“Trump likes to use America's power to put pressure on smaller countries. And then position everything in such a way that he was able to quickly achieve a particular result, and he is such a great negotiator. A successful policy towards Russia requires much more time and energy than Trump is willing to invest. So instead, they focus on Ukraine. But I think the US will soon understand that trying to quickly resolve the war in Ukraine will have a completely different effect than trying to ignite a trade war with our neighbors,” Epstein said in a commentary to RBC-Ukraine.
While Russia and the US are mending diplomatic relations, Europe is talking about a peace plan. French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer are proposing concrete points to implement now – an air, sea and energy truce, and Kyiv is backing these proposals. Since it is really important for Trump to end the war quickly, to declare himself a peacemaker and perhaps even to win the Nobel Peace Prize for it, the day will come when he and his team will set concrete conditions for the Russians. The first is a meeting between Putin and Trump, and the second – and most important – a ceasefire.
Russian economists talk about the grave situation and active decline of the economy, which has long been fixated on military production. Although Russian troops achieve tactical victories at the front, in the strategic perspective they cannot and will not be able to capture Ukrainian cities, which they have written into their constitution for a long time. In the Kremlin, the Russian dictator is periodically told that it would be rational to start direct negotiations with the US on some kind of peace process, but, apparently, they do not receive a clear answer.
Perhaps the reason is that Putin does not have this answer yet. Since his decisions are far from always adequate and rational, there is a chance that in the case of a direct question about a ceasefire, he will say “no”. Moreover, Putin is clearly not ready to meet with Trump on his territory or where it will be convenient for Trump. Therefore, statements about Minsk's readiness to receive “dear guests” are appearing in his circles. Putin must be comfortable and he does not want to be seated face to face with Trump and Vice President J.D. Vance, like Zelensky.
For now, the Russian president is trying to win what he can win. He can pretend for a long time that he is ready to make concessions, offer things like discussing the status of Crimea in 50 years, but he will not directly enter the negotiating process. And when the Americans understand this, there is a chance that all their efforts to pressure and comprehensive criticism will fall on Moscow. “The main hope and the main insurance against Putin is Putin. Yes. Again. His inadequacy is the main hope,” Preobrazhensky added.
Ukraine, by all appearances, is trying to establish a negotiation process with the Americans. At the same time, Europe seems to have finally realized that there is a war going on on its continent and, no matter what statements are made in their direction, it is necessary to cooperate with the States. Considering that there are talented negotiators in European countries, especially Western ones – at least the same Macron, it is worth counting on the fact that sooner or later Europe will make America an offer that it will not be able to refuse. And Ukraine’s task today is to ensure that this offer includes its interests.