Photo: The dollar exchange rate is expected to be in the range of 41.4-42 hryvnia (Vitaliy Nosach, RBC-Ukraine) Author: Alexander Belous
Expert: Taras Lesovoy
Next week, current exchange rate fluctuations of the official dollar exchange rate will remain insignificant, and the exchange rate ceiling for acceptable fluctuations will not exceed 42 hryvnias.
Taras Lesovoy, head of the treasury department at Globus Bank, said this in a comment to RBC-Ukraine.
As the banker noted, the NBU's increased key rate to 15.5% will impress the market, and in conditions of more stable consumer prices, demand on the foreign exchange market will slowly decline.
In his opinion, the operation of the NBU's managed flexibility regime protects the market from exchange rate shocks and minimizes the difference between supply and demand through timely and sufficient currency interventions. “The first economic reason for the growth of the dollar exchange rate is precisely the supply deficit,” he added.
According to him, the difference between the interbank and cash market rates will remain minimal and stable.
“In general, the situation on the currency market next week will be volatile-stable. Exchange rate fluctuations will occur daily, but without radical jumps and falls). At the same time, we do not rule out that irrational factors may also come into play: the tone of public sentiment may be completely unpredictable: it cannot be ruled out that demand on the cash market may increase at the moment. However, the regulator has enough leverage to keep rates at acceptable levels,” Lesovoy added.
Rate forecast
As the banker noted, the main characteristics of the currency market next week (March 24-30) will be as follows:
- The corridors of acceptable currency changes will be 41.4-42 UAH/USD and 44.5-45.5 UAH/EUR (on the interbank market) and 41.4-42 UAH/USD and 44.5-45.5 UAH/EUR (on the cash market).
- The average difference between the interbank and cash market rates will be 0 hryvnia
- Average weekly exchange rate deviations will be within 1-1.5% of the starting rate of the week.
“So, next week we should expect that the situation on the currency market will be relatively balanced: there are no visible reasons for changes in the exchange rate situation, and the regulator, which is the main player in the market, will take control of the situation if necessary,” the banker stated.
Let us recall that the dollar exchange rate fluctuated in a narrow range last week. As a result, the dollar rose by 2 kopecks to 41.52 hryvnia.