Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kestutis Budrys (photo: Vitaly Nosach / RBC-Ukraine) Author: Milan Lelich
In an interview with RBC-Ukraine, Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys spoke about peace negotiations and the role of the United States, European security in the new realities and European aid to Ukraine, the Russian threat to the Baltic countries and Ukraine's membership in the EU.
“In 2030, on January 1, you can become a member of the European Union – and this can be achieved,” said Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kęstutis Budrys at the opening of the Ukraine2EU project in Kyiv, drawing applause from the audience.
Ukraine2EU is a programme initiated by the EU, Lithuania and Denmark (later joined by Sweden) that aims to help Ukraine complete the rest of the journey towards full membership in the European Union.
In addition to support in this strategic task, Lithuania has been very actively involved in helping Ukraine since the first day of the full-scale invasion. According to the calculations of the Kiel Institute for World Economics, Lithuania has allocated various aid to Ukraine in the amount of 1.8% of its own GDP – in this indicator it ranks third among all partner countries of Ukraine in the world.
In a conversation with RBC-Ukraine before the conference, Budrys noted that not all European countries are increasing their own defense spending and making long-term commitments to support Ukraine, as Lithuania is doing, so it is necessary to “ring this bell and pour buckets of ice water on the beds where someone is sleeping peacefully.”
Regarding the main topic of recent months – peace talks – the head of the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry insists: Russia never does anything of its own free will, only under the pressure of sanctions, economic restrictions, strong military force and the like. “If this is the first time in history that Russia behaves differently, I will be very surprised,” Budrys said. Therefore, the minister suggests giving the Americans time for their diplomatic efforts – and see if “Russia will be the same as we have known it for hundreds of years.”
– Today, the central topic in the context of the war in Ukraine is, of course, peace talks and various attempts to achieve at least some kind of truce. Do you see any signs that Russia might agree to a truce in the near future?
– We have not seen Russia agree to anything voluntarily, and only through a mutually acceptable process, when each side makes certain concessions. Russia is not that type of negotiator, and that type of international player.
In the current situation, Lithuania is well aware that it is an aggressor, and that the war that Russia started was illegal, and this is how Russia should be treated. From the position of law and force, and this is the right way to achieve a fair and lasting peace. Lithuania is not a neutral country that watches from the sidelines. We fully support Ukraine and your efforts to protect and defend yourself for a great future.
So when we talk about the Russians, we believe in the measures and the precedents that have worked before: hard military force, the use of economic restrictive measures, sanctions, and the use of frozen assets as leverage. And if this is the first time in history that Russia behaves differently, I will be very surprised.
Kęstutis Budrys at the Ukraine2EU conference (photo: courtesy of the organisers)
– How would you assess the activities of the United States in the context of peace negotiations and the fact that the United States publicly positions itself as a mediator between Ukraine and Russia, and not as an ally of Ukraine, as it was before?
– We commend the efforts of the Trump administration to use the diplomatic path as much as possible. We want to see them backed up by tough diplomatic tools and leverage against Russia when or if Putin does not show a desire to stop aggression and agree to a ceasefire.
So we recognize that and only after this process will we be able to assess in general whether the United States was in the middle, whether it was with Ukraine, or even on the other side. So let's give them the opportunity to move forward with diplomatic efforts and see if Russia will be the same as we have known it for hundreds of years.
– Given the recent statements and actions of President Trump, can we say that today the security of Europe is essentially the business of Europe itself? And do you think that Europe “woke up” after J.D. Vance's speech at the Munich Conference, after the scandal in the Oval Office, after the statements of the same Trump and realized that it urgently needs to take care of its own security?
– Europe had reasons to wake up after the full-scale invasion of Ukraine. When we saw the state of our stockpiles, reserves and our own military capabilities, we had to rely on US leadership and US resources because Europe simply does not have them.
And yes, we sent a significant part to Ukraine, but it is not enough for Ukraine, it is not enough for the defense of Europe. So I cannot agree that the reason for the “awakening” was the elections in the USA. Russia is the reason for this.
And we are still not doing enough. Speaking of Lithuania, we are doing a lot. We are increasing defense spending, we have committed to supporting Ukraine for decades. Our partners in the region are doing the same, but not everyone in Europe is doing the same. And we still have to ring that bell and pour buckets of ice water on the beds where someone is sleeping peacefully. And in doing so, of course, we must involve the Americans in deterring Russia and in defense planning for the Euro-Atlantic area, because that is also their territory.
– Do you think it is possible to attract them?
“I don’t see any indication that they won’t be involved, that they are not part of the NATO alliance, which is based on one principle – to trust each other that we will protect each other in the event of war.
Yes, we see various processes and revision of positions in Europe as a continent. This is a natural process, and I do not think now that they will not be with us. I really have reason to believe that the US will remain part of the European security architecture, as well as Ukraine, which will be part of this architecture. Because I cannot see the future of European security without Ukraine. Therefore, Lithuania's national interest is that Ukrainians are safe, strong and in the European Union.
– At the moment, to what extent is Europe able to compensate Ukraine for possible interruptions in the supply of military aid from the United States?
– There are critical supplies that we do not have substitutes for, and we all know what that is. That is why we must continue to cooperate with the US. Another thing is that we must cooperate more between the EU and Ukraine as a future EU member in the defense industry. Lithuania is already investing in the defense industry of Ukraine and we are looking for cooperation projects between our companies. And I believe that we will be stronger with our own production and there will be no gaps between Ukraine and Europe in what we produce. That is our goal.
EU Ambassador to Ukraine Katarina Mathernova, Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanishyna, Kestutis Budrys (photo: courtesy of the organisers)
– The Financial Times recently published an article stating that if there is a ceasefire in Ukraine, the threat to the Baltic states, particularly Lithuania, from Russia will become greater, as Russia will be able to move its troops from Ukraine closer to your borders. Do you agree with this opinion, and how do you generally assess the risk of Russia invading the Baltics in the near future?
– Russia has been a direct military threat to the Baltic countries for many years. And it is not only about the level of threat, but also about the level of our stability and capabilities for deterrence and defense. Therefore, when assessing the risk, we take into account not only the threat.
The threat is divided into capabilities and intentions. And I have no doubt about Russia's intentions. They remain. They want to conquer neighboring countries. And this will continue as long as Putin is in power. And there is a question of capabilities. Now they are in Ukraine and near Ukraine. Of course, they will be transferred after some time to the bases from which they came.
So, when we consider the possibilities, in the future in our direction they will be increased. But in Russia's plans and in our defense planning, we see ourselves as interconnected. So it will not be that one country is the target and the others are left aside. So we will be one long front line and we need to plan everything so that we have to defend it.
– Will Ukraine be able to complete its path to full EU membership by 2030, or could it happen earlier?
– This is the deadline. We must set this deadline, and count down the deadlines for all the other important decisions that need to be made. Lithuania is investing the best knowledge and experience from our own EU accession process in this great project that we are launching today. We believe that you will be able to do it by 2030. That is why we are so committed to this, because you inspire us with your commitment and motivation.