What will be the dollar exchange rate in the first half of August: banker's forecast

There is no excitement on the market yet.

The market will be relatively calm over the next three weeks: all exchange rate processes may occur within the new currency corridor of 40.7-41.7 UAH per dollar.

This was reported by banker Taras Lesovoy in a commentary to “RBK-Ukraine”.

“In addition, the NBU, having taken timely measures and restrained the exchange rate speed, can maintain the volume of currency interventions at the level of 200-250 million dollars per banking day and thus balance supply and demand,” he said.

According to him, the seeds of excitement have disappeared from the market. In particular, this was a consequence of the prompt intervention of the National Bank, as well as “the logical calming of some players due to the resolution of the issue of Ukraine's external debt.”

“We can say that now there is a transition period between the summer and autumn rates, which will approach the rate of 42.1 UAH per dollar budgeted for the end of the year,” the banker predicts.

The banker predicts that the situation on the currency market during August 5-11 will be as follows:

the corridors of acceptable currency changes on the interbank market will be 40.7-41.7 UAH per dollar;
depending on the currency, the average difference between the interbank and cash market rates will be 0.3-0.5 UAH;
the average weekly deviations will be within 2% of the starting rate of the week.

“By all indications, the market will experience an inertia of stability, which may continue until September,” Lesovoy noted.

As reported, pensioners will experience changes from August 1. Payments are increasing due to recalculations and indexations. However, this month, payments will be increased by accruing special surcharges.