• 24/05/2024 22:38

Will the dollar cross the 50 hryvnia mark: experts' forecast for the coming years

 Will the dollar cross the 50 hryvnia mark: expert forecast for the coming years

Expert forecast for the hryvnia exchange rate against the dollar in the coming years.

According to experts, in 2027 the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine may be 49.6 UAH/USD. Thus, the devaluation of thehryvniais predictedin the coming years.

This is stated in the consensus forecast for April 2024 of experts and officials, published on the website of the Ministry of Economy.

According to the consensus forecast of the Ministry of Economy (average value of the main forecast indicators of economic and social development of Ukraine, calculated on the basis of expert assessments of specialists in the field of macroanalysis and forecasting), in 2024 the average value of the dollar exchange rate in Ukraine will be 40.33 UAH. And by the end of the year, the dollar exchange rate is expected to be 41.67 UAH/USD.

Forecast of the value of the hryvnia to the dollar until 2027:

  • 2025: the average maximum exchange rate is expected to be 45.9 UAH/USD, the rate at the end of the year is 46.3 UAH;
  • 2026: the average maximum exchange rate is 48.6 UAH /dollar, rate at the end of the year – 47.8 UAH/dollar;
  • 2027: average maximum exchange rate – 48.7 UAH/dollar, rate at the end of the year – 49.6 UAH/dollar< /li>

Optimistic scenario:

  • 2025: the average minimum exchange rate is expected to be 39.6 UAH/USD, the rate at the end of the year is 39 UAH;
  • 2026 : average minimum exchange rate – 39 UAH/USD, rate at the end of the year – 38 UAH;
  • 2027: average maximum exchange rate – 40 UAH/USD, rate at the end of the year – 41 UAH.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) predicts that the average dollar exchange rate in Ukraine in 2024 will be 41 UAH/USD.

However, the forecast rate of the Ukrainian government in the budget for 2024 is 40 .7 UAH/USD That is, only 30 kopecks. below.

Recall that last week the dollar exchange rate exceeded 40 hryvnia. We are talking about the cash market, but also on the non-cash exchange rate it came close to forty – by the evening of Friday, April 19, on the interbank market it was 39.93 UAH/dollar. At the same time, the National Bank did not take decisive action to stop the exchange rate.

What to expect this week – read the analytical project of the TSN.ua website.

tsn.ua

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