Last year, the National Bank expected the return of Ukrainian migrants from abroad to begin in 2024. While this is not recorded, on the contrary, there is a certain outflow. NBU head Andriy Pyshny stated this during a monetary briefing.
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“The 2024 forecast is quite cautious about the return of the migration flow to Ukraine. Primarily due to security risks. But the factor of assimilation, the adaptation of our citizens to the life that they are beginning to build abroad, has a significant impact on today,” he said.
In addition, Deputy Head of the NBU Sergei Nikolaychuk said that the risks associated with war, intensified.
“This year we expect a slight, but increase in the number of our migrants. And next year, as security risks are reduced, we expect the return of about 400 thousand people,” he said.
Nikolaichuk noted that the NBU estimates the outflow of foreign currency (according to the balance of payments for travel) to Ukrainian migrants abroad in 2022 at the level of $20 billion per year, in 2023 – $18 billion, in 2024 – $13 billion. The decrease is due to the fact that Ukrainians become tax residents of EU countries.
Deputy head of the NBU Yuriy Heletiy said that the daily expenses of Ukrainians for border on cards of Ukrainian banks since April last year are at the level of $35 million.