The European Central Bank (ECB) has downgraded its forecast for eurozone GDP growth in 2025 to 0.9% from the 1.1% expected in December.
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What will happen to GDP growth?
Expectations for next year were revised to 1.2% from 1.4%, the regulator said in a statement following its March meeting. The estimate for 2027 remained unchanged at 1.3%.
The ECB raised its forecast for consumer price growth this year to 2.3% from 2.1% previously. It still expects a 1.9% increase in 2026.
The 2027 estimate was revised to 2% from 2.1%.
“The downward revisions for 2025 and 2026 reflect weaker exports and continued investment weakness, partly due to high trade and broader policy uncertainty,” the document says. “Real income growth and the gradual fading of the impact of past rate increases remain key factors underpinning the expected recovery in demand over time.”
The ECB raised its forecast for consumer price growth this year to 2.3% from 2.1% previously. It still expects a 1.9% increase in 2026. The 2027 estimate was revised down to 2% from 2.1%.
“The disinflation process is proceeding according to plan,” the statement said. “Inflation continued to develop generally as expected. The upward revision for 2025 reflects stronger energy price dynamics.”
Consumer prices excluding energy and food (core inflation) will increase, according to the ECB forecast, by 2.2% this year (previously expected 2.3%), and by 2% next year (previously estimated 1.9%). Growth of 1.9% is still expected in 2027.
“Most indicators suggest that inflation will stabilise around the ECB's medium-term target of 2% on a sustainable basis,” the report said.
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