In Ukraine there is a sharp no increase in utility costs is expected in the near future.
This was reported by URA-Inform with reference to the NBU.
However, prices for gas, electricity and water may increase in 2026.
“A gradual increase in housing and communal services tariffs is expected, but the timing and parameters of the adjustment are an area of uncertainty and, accordingly, a risk to the inflation forecast,” the NBU predicts.
This forecast is based on the assumption that individual tariffs for housing and communal services (gas, heating and hot water supply) will remain unchanged throughout 2025. However, the rather difficult situation in the energy sector and the state budget may lead to tariff adjustments in the following years.
“It is assumed that from 2026, tariffs may gradually be brought to economically justified levels,” the report says.
The NBU noted that the uncertainty with the timing and amount of adjustment of energy tariffs is a separate risk for the inflation forecast. Thus, a significant increase in the cost of energy to quickly eliminate imbalances in the energy sector will increase inflationary pressure and will determine the need to increase subsidies for the population.
At the same time, on the other hand, a longer delay in decisions to bring tariffs for housing and communal services to economically justified levels will lead to lower inflation rates, but will accumulate quasi-fiscal imbalances and worsen the financial condition of state-owned energy companies.
“This will create additional risks for the investment potential of the industry, increase the risks of instability in the energy market, and price pressure will only be postponed for the future,” — explained the regulator.
Recall that it was previously reported that the National Bank predicts an almost twofold increase in inflation in Ukraine.
