The official exchange rate of the Russian ruble fell almost exactly to the dollar minimum Birch 2022 fate, if large-scale sanctions from foreign countries were imposed due to the Russian Federation’s invasion of Ukraine. The repeated anti-record was caused by a number of factors, starting with new sanctions against Russia and ending with lower prices for a barrel of oil.
Why did the Russian currency begin to depreciate so sharply, as this long-term process also affects the ability of the Russian Federation to continue the war against Ukraine – read in the perspective of RBC-Ukraine journalist Alika Sakhna.
Zmіst:
- Why is the ruble falling
- What will happen next to the ruble
- How the fall of the ruble is related to the Russian war against Ukraine
On November 30, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation valued one US dollar at approximately 108 Russian rubles. According to official data from the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, the ruble fell to the third third, leveling from 19 cherubs, amounting to 82.62 per dollar.
Why the ruble is falling
Since the beginning of the fall of 2024, the dollar has begun to steadily appreciate the ruble. Prote the factor of re-electing US President Donald Trump without sharply collapsing the Russian currency. Although the ruble has already risen, approaching the psychological mark of 100 rubles per dollar, the Russian currency has officially moved past the 19th fall.
The fall of the Russian ruble has accelerated to the 21st fall after the fall of the United States sanctionsagainst over 50 Russian banks, among which was Gazprombank. It is through this financial institution that they are unlikely to pay for Russian energy supplies in rubles of the region, which the Russian Federation called “unfriendly.” After the start of a large-scale invasion, Gazprombank was deprived of a single bank capable of conducting currency transfers across Russia and beyond the border.
Oleksandr Paraschii, a senior analyst at the investment company Concorde Capital, reports that the valued ruble is heavily influenced by the influx of hard currency, with a large number of export transactions converted into rubles. As a result, in the region there is a shortage of dollars, which is accompanied by an increase in the price of dollars.
However, there is reliable information available daily to the real volume of the deficit dollars in the country, and the Central Bank of the Russian Federation has not yet experienced enough income to compensate for the fall of the currency. The population's increased purchases of ready-made currency will also contribute to the seasonal increase in imports, which in Russia falls under the New Holy Day, if the business is stocking up on goods until the Holy Day.
“Putin’s riverman Dmitro Peskov stated that the fall of the ruble is not a big problem, since most transactions with partners are carried out in rubles. This statement was only partially true, since they want budget revenues to grow in rubles, but The fall of the currency has psychological implications. The peretin of the border at 100 rubles per dollar is causing a lot of people to panic, which can change their trust to the ruble and their ownership in general,” asserts Paraschya.
On ruble stability also improves availability of naphtha in world markets. Previously Kazakhstan informed, which plans to increase the export transit of oil bypassing Russia by 13 times. They plan to implement the increased supply of naphtha through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline from 1.5 million tons to 20 million tons.
Crimea, Brent and WTI naphtha spent more than 3%on Whose efforts are under pressure to please Israel about the outbreak of fire with the Lebanese Hezbollah group. Naphtha prices also decreased following an increase in gasoline reserves in the United States.
The newly elected 47th President of the United States, Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated on June 20, 2025, spoke about plans to increase oil production and thereby change the price on light markets. Oleksandr Parashchiy points out that Trump can effectively increase the position on oil and gas, which can weaken the ruble even more, but talk about specific numbers in advance.
What will happen with the ruble
The deputy director of the securities trading company Dragon Capital, Sergei Fursa, respects that Russia’s ongoing adaptation to new minds has already begun, which, in his opinion, allowed the ruble to stabilize a little. Zokrema, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation, from 28 November until the end of the year, is committed to the purchase of foreign currency on the domestic currency market. It is possible to make financial markets less untransferable, having shortened the fluctuation of prices and exchange rates.
“Raising the key rate is no longer working, but on November 27 they decided to stop violating the budget rule and buy in The Ministry of Finance has leftovers. It’s already wasted. They can’t earn anything else,” Fursa asserts.In this case, the Russian Federation, as soon as possible, is already looking for ways to circumvent sanctions against Gazprombank. However, the expert explains, this is all due to the appreciation of currency transactions, although the ruble is still sinking due to a sharp decline. In this regard, Sergei Fursa is focused on forecasts for the possible exchange rate of the ruble at the end of fate.
International sanctions on the Russian ruble (colage: RBC-Ukraine)
Oleksandr Parashchy believes that Russians have learned to find ways to change the effect of the sanctions on the economy of their region. Moreover, the expert admits that the exchange rate should not fall much until the end of 2024, and maybe they will start to feel that only Russians will not start to panic and change the currency en masse, which, in his opinion, will not will be.
“The psychological mark of 100 rubles has already been fixed, but if it is possible for the exchange rate to turn lower than this mark, it will remain under the control of the Central Bank. If they really want to, they can rub in, otherwise In order to stabilize the exchange rate, the Central Bank of the Russian Federation will certainly not only move the key rate, but also increase the dollar position on the market. This is a real way to reduce the ruble exchange rate. You can mother your negativity inheritance,” explains Parashchy.
Prote, for dataReuters, the fall of the ruble is due not only to sanctions, but also to the global strength of the American dollar. Commentators from various experts predict further devaluation of the Russian currency, including the potential to reach 120 rubles per dollar.
How the fall of the ruble is linked to the Russian war against Ukraine
Russia is expected to spend a record 13.5 trillion rubles on the continuation of the war against Ukraine, which is 41% of all budgetary funds of the Russian Federation. There was no reason why the money would go towards upgrading Ukraine’s poor equipment reserves and equipment. The fall of the ruble may increase the availability of imported components that are purchased from the military-industrial complex of the Russian Federation, which will increase the demand for the Russian budget.
At the same time, Sergei Fursa appreciates that The fall of the ruble, however, will increase the budget of the Russian Federation from the export, first of all, of energy resources. This, in his words, allows for the support of the military machine of the aggressor, while still paying the military and “coffins”.
It is also possible that in some cases Russia is suddenly seen as a ruble during the devolution with their allies. For example, like writeBBC, Southern Korea gave the Russian Federation a free supply of soldiers in exchange for over 1 million barrels of oil.
Fursa explains that the value of the ruble will help finance the budget, which is formed in the national currency. On the other hand, this contributes to the rise of inflation, which, in other words, is the biggest problem for the Russian economy.
“We cannot immediately say the exact figure of inflation in the Russian Federation. The first figure – 8.5% – does not serve as an indicator, since with the Central Bank setting the rate at 21%, it is unlikely that inflation in them is really 8.5%. Otherwise, we do not we know how much devaluation is in full swing.The Central Bank of Russia projected an inflation rate of 4% for the 2024 river, but the river inflation in the future reached 8.5%, according to official data. Thus, although the budget for the devaluation of the ruble will be replaced more quickly, the Russian population will become poorer due to the continuation of the war and the increase in income from its implementation. Oleksandr Parashchiy points out that due to the fall of the ruble, inflation may accelerate by another 0.5-1%.
CNBC's publication guess, by the way, that Russia was faced with a shortage of eggs in the past and increased prices for products lower by 40%. Through the whole series of the Russian Federation, it was possible to terminate the import allowance and import millions of eggs from “friend” countries.
Prote CNBC emphasizes that the tension in the family is growing, even Many Russians associate inflation with the war. However, while it is not safe for citizens to openly criticize the invasion through fines or recognition, Moscow is able to control the internal situation. It is not yet clear whether the constant increase in war expenses and the shortening of incomes of ordinary citizens can cause a suspense in Russia.
Guess what, RBC-Ukraine wrote about those who Russian The ruble is weakening against the US dollar and the Chinese yuan. Wine fell in price by 24% more on the cob of the sickle, when the fall began. Analysts are expecting a further collapse of the Russian currency.
